Gjert thinks Jakob will run 3:25

Impala31 wrote:

I don't see him improving a lot. Actually he hardly improved this year. But the Monaco track improved.

I'd quibble with this a lot. He's improved a lot this season. He's gone from being something like 1-1.5 seconds slower than Cheruiyot to more like .2-.6. He's run two 3:30s including one that was a solo effort. His PB is obviously improved from Monaco in a race that wasn't set up for him (he had to lead the second pack). His competitive record has him only losing at 1500 to Tim, as opposed to last year when he lost to Filip, Musagala, Lewandowski, Souleiman. Sure some of these guys have been absent on the circuit, but he's been well-clear of strong competition like McSewyn and Wightman.

Also, I'm not sure why people are trying to move him up to 5,000 or 10,000. The two Ugandans are young and ascendant, and there are some strong Ethiopians established with good Kenyans in the pipeline. Meanwhile in the 1500, he is a clear no. 2 in the World with some of his best competition at the back-end (Souleiman, Lewandowski, Makhloufi, Centrowitz) or missing (Manangoi).

THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:

He's gone from being something like 1-1.5 seconds slower than Cheruiyot to more like .2-.6.

Lol.

Loppas wrote:

paris2024hawk wrote:

Jakob also trains harder than basically all 19 year olds...

You know about Jakob's training? They train threshold intervals 4 times a week, which is not really hard, 2 - 2,5 Mmol in lactic acid. They measure and have full control and never go above that, except for the saturday's hill repeats.

With Henrik (and Filip) there was some trial and errors, but now the system seems to work really good. Of course, the faster Jakob runs, the closer he gets to his limit, but I think he has still some years to develop!

I should have said he has a higher training volume, 100 plus mpw is a lot for a teen.

To bad Vegas didn't have a betting pull for this because my $10,000 bet would have been worth $50,000 To $200,000 depending on the odds. I was not even surprised I figured Jakob would run 7:27 or faster. Jakob and Creppa will be the next To run under 12:50.

His PB was 8 and now it's 7:27

Yes he has WR potential in the 1500

Thursday#3 wrote:

To bad Vegas didn't have a betting pull for this because my $10,000 bet would have been worth $50,000 To $200,000 depending on the odds. I was not even surprised I figured Jakob would run 7:27 or faster. Jakob and Creppa will be the next To run under 12:50.

Did you mean Crippa? Could be, but I don't know how in the world you would not pick McSweyn way ahead of Crippa?? Crippa and Foppen are in a similar ballpark.

Next year I could see Jakob- 12:44, McSweyn- 12:48, Crippa- 12:57, Foppen- 12:59

What I really like about Jakob is that he races really often. He appears in nearly every high level 1500. We get to see, week in and week out, that he is no fluke.

I don't think he runs 3:25, (I think he's capable of 3:27 though) I am certain he can run 12:50, below that is hard to say but totally believable. I want to see him get some medals at 1500 and check that off his list before he moves to 5k.

We are looking at a new golden age at 5k. 4 years ago he'd be challenging farah at 5k but clearly the ugandans are incredible, barega and gebriwhet are inconsistent but incredibly talented, and Ahmed is on a new level. I think Jakob needs to be all in on 5k to achieve his potential there.

Billy Barroo wrote:

His PB was 8 and now it's 7:27

Yes he has WR potential in the 1500

Can you get the WR while taking second place?

yes he has improved since last year but just a little bit. Usually at this kind of age you still improve a lot year after year. I believe Jakob is close to his peak for 1500.

The facts: wrote:

The facts:

1) Was Jakob Ingebrigtsen conceived, born and raised at elevation greater than 5000 feet?

2) Does Jakob I. have a sub-2:15 1000m personal best?

3) Does Jakob I. have a sub-7:30 3000m P.B?

It will not occur.

This post did not age well.

I saw the startlist for the norwegian Championchip for this weekend. I found Jakobs name in the 800m, 1500m, steeple, 5000m and 10000m race. I misunderstood something or what a kind of madness is this? has anybody got further information? How he can do that with a 7:27 in his legs?

If they let him take what he needs to take to break it then yes...and for the good of track they should lol.

Semiler wrote:

The facts: wrote:

The facts:

3) Does Jakob I. have a sub-7:30 3000m P.B?

It will not occur.

Very good argument indeed. He does not even have a sub 8:00 3000m PB.

This didn't age well, in fact less than 2 days. A LRC record.

Rupp fan wrote:

The facts: wrote:

The facts:

1) Was Jakob Ingebrigtsen conceived, born and raised at elevation greater than 5000 feet?

2) Does Jakob I. have a sub-2:15 1000m personal best?

3) Does Jakob I. have a sub-7:30 3000m P.B?

It will not occur.

This post did not age well.

I did not state Jakob I. could not race sub-7:30 3000m. He still does not have a sub-2:15 1000m. Many believed el Guerrouj was sub-2:15 1000m capable. You know poster, Jakob I. is not sub-2:15 1000m capable.

El G was a 2:13 guy at least.

I think when you are 20 +/- years old and you have great speed and a 3K PB that is at a pace of 2 sub 4 miles back to back you have 1500m WR potential.

Great runner wrote:

I think when you are 20 +/- years old and you have great speed and a 3K PB that is at a pace of 2 sub 4 miles back to back you have 1500m WR potential.

Do you mean Jacob or Jakob?

The reason most 19-20 year olds continue to improve is because their body and training is just beginning to mature.

The reason Jakob is breaking age group records is because he matured faster than others his age.

This should temper any expectation that he will continue to improve like any other 19-20 year old.

3:28.68 is a great time for anyone -- only 7 have run faster all time -- but still 2.68 seconds slower than the world record.

7:27.05 is also a great time -- only 8 have run faster -- but is still a whopping 6.38 seconds slower than the world record.

The question becomes, can someone who set age group records as a teenager, mature that much more to find another gain of 2.69 seconds in the 1500m, after running a time faster than all but 7 athletes in all of history?

Maybe.

Another way to look at it is asking -- is there any precedent? Are world records generally set by young age group world record holders? Is young age success a common path to world record success?

You asked some questions rekrunner! Are you too lazy to find the answers yourself?

Just from the top of my head I can tell you:

a. Steve Cram held the U17 "WR" in the mile for almost 40 years (guess who broke it at age 16?)

As far as I remember Crams time at 17 was 3:57.?? His early age group record didn´t prevent him from having an "OK" senior career, including improving his mile time from age 17 with around 11 seconds breaking the senior WR!

b. Kenenisa Bekele held the U20 WR in the 3000m at age 19. His time was 7:30.??

This didn´t prevent Bekele from becoming one of the greats of all time, including improving his above 3000m time with around 5 seconds.

I will think about some more examples.

Can you find some examples which go the other way?

Here is a little follow up:

c. Steve Owett: U20 European 800m winner. Later several senior WRs

d. N. Morceli: U20 silver in 1500m at 17. Later many WRs.

e. Gebrselassie: Double U20 gold medallist in 5000m and 10.000m. 27!? senior WRs!

f. Alan Webb: fastest highscool mile at 18 at 3:53.?? Later Area record holder in 3:46.?? with around 7.5 seconds improvement.

g. Mo Farah: U20 European champion in the 5000m. Multiple Olympic and Worlds gold medallist and 1 hour WR holder.

h. Eliud Kipchoge: U20 WR holder in the 5000m and U20 gold medallist in cross. Several WRs in the marathon.

Now it is your turn!