Geb & A Marathon World Record

habman wrote:

It will be interesting to see who's gonning to rabbit Geb through 30k-35k at 4:43 pace when they could run 2:06-2:08 for a possible win elsewhere.

Yeah, very, very interesting. We know what happened to the guy who rabbited the current world record...

The Amsterdam course does not have a lot of tight turns. The 1st half is definitely slower than the first half. There is about 5km on a brick path along a river from about 15km to half way, but after that it's smooth sailing all the way.

A lot of people PR at Amsterdam.

I think that Geb just needs a couple pacers though halfway in 1:02:15 and I think that he could go the rest of the way by himself.

In your analysis for his fitness based on the Tilburg race, you also have to take into account the hot weather. I think that he could go much faster in cool conditions.

Jason

I think people are a little confused here. The limiting factors in an 800/1500 would be lactic acid/VO2. The limiting factor in a 10 mile race would be LT. The limiting factor in a marathon would be fuel, which is highly influenced by AT. There might be some variation, but LT has a vary strong correlation with AT, especially in people who are half-marathoners/marathoners. Granted a 10 mile world best does not indicate that he will run a WR marathon, but it is wuite faulty logic to say b/c he ran a 10 mile WR, he will not run a marathon WR. How foolish. Would you think it would bode better for his marathon if he had run 46:00? Also, If you know much about marathon training, then you should know a little something about periodization. The latest methods prefer raising VO2/LT and then AT. Therefore, his fuel efficiency will probably only increase since his AT will probably be less % difference from his LT in the weeks to come. Your post seemed to be somewhat who feels moderately informed on training principles trying to espouse a bold prediction by citing faulty logic. No soup for you.

History has shown the best marathon times have come AFTER those runners have posted their best times in shorter races. Why would anyone think this would be different with Geb?

Wrong:

It seems you are being a bit strong-handed with Mayerhoff, who happens to be a fairly good marathoner and seemingly a decent person. Your retort is a rehashing of what you read from Renato Canova's post, which is fine in some ways, but Mayerhoff has an opinion too that has some merit. I know, you don't think traditional ideas are right or have a place in modern training, but perhaps there is room too for considering both ideas.

There have been many marathoners in the past who knew nothing of Renato Canova or the ideas he expresses (as a result of his education from scientists in Italy, who took their information generally from the German researchers at the Cologne Institute of Sport) and they (past marathoners) competed in stellar fashion. I would not base the entire value of a training method that Renato expresses on the performances of some Kenyan runners (now in Bahrain). The talented folks he coaches can run 2:11 or better on just plane old running 120 miles per week, alternating one day faster, one day not as fast.

Ibraham Hussein won several big marathons and the guy basically did just as I described. This isn't meant to diminsh Mr. Canova in any way. I am saying don't take every detail as 100% gospel when the athletes he uses it on are outrageously gifted and their results might very well be nearly as good without formal training. I do agree with most of what he says, by the way, but I value Mayerhoff's approach too.

Let's see how Geb does. Let's find out what he does in his training for the several weeks leading up the marathon, if possible, before drawing conclusions that he was doing AT work or whatever, and that was the reason he ran a world best time. I remember seeing Rod Dixon at Pepsi 10k Challenge race in Iowa about 23 years ago when he was tearing up the road circuit. We all stood around thinking he was doing what all the other world leader 10k guys were doing (fairly high mileage with lots of fast reps). After he retired, he admitted that he was only running about 70 miles per week when on tour in the USA running those races for several months. What is truth often takes time to come to the fore. Same goes for Simeon Kigen (who ran only 65 miles per week) and Mike Musyoki (medalist in the Olympic 10,000m and road race star) who regularly ran just 1 hour per day, 6 days per week. His interval workout each week was just on Thursday about 2 miles worth of 440s or 880s and not that fast.

My retort was intended for "take it from me", and I did not read Renato's post...

Yes, "fuel" and fat metabolism are extremely important in the Marathon. I would hazard a guess that Geb and his coach are planning a different nutritional strategy for the Amsterdam race than in London 2002.

I think that Gebresalassie learned a lot from his experience in London 2002 where he ran 2:06:36.

Here's what I know:

The Amsterdam course is EXTREMELY fast, especially the 2nd half.....it's defintely faster than Rotterdam, even though the course record at Amsterdam is slightly slower than Rotterdam. Tons of people PR there. I ran Amsterdam as a training run in 2001, and I can tell you that if I had to choose between Rotterdam and Amsterdam, I'd choose Amsterdam, even though the crowds are absent. (I've run them both). The only course faster is BERLIN.

Assuming he doesn't get injured, (like he did at the Lisbon half in 2002 just before London) and the weather cooperates, I would like to make a sizable bet that Gebresalassie breaks the WR in Amsterdam October 16.

My guess is about 2:04:20.

Yes.

If there is ONE dude who has been able to keep his word over the past 10y or so, it has been Haile. I believe that if he has reasonable conditions, he will smash it.

Tinman wrote:

Jason:

I calculate Geb's 10 mile time to be equal to a 2:04:31, but it was said there are some tight turns on the 10 mile course that he raced, so I gave it a 5 second improvement to 2:04:26 if he were to race in the marathon now. Oddly, one thing I normally ask of my marathoners is for them to do a full-effort 10 mile time trial about 4-5 weeks before their marathon race in order to predict what pace they should run in the marathon. It works out very well.

OK, so when you do this "full effort 10 mile" test, how do you use it to predict you M pace? I'd like to give this a try. I'm in great shape and looking to run a good marathon in Detroit, but to be honest, I have no idea what pace to shoot for.

Please elaborate.

Tinman:

I think it is very unlikely that Geb can run the marathon world record by himself. You have to remember that Tergat had Sammy Korrir right behind him when he set the record. Do really think that someone is going to be able to run with Geb or even attempt it in Amsterdam? You guys always see some impressive time at a shorter distance and think it means that Geb or anyone else will break a record. The reality is that he will have to have a perfect day to even come close breaking 2:05. Plus this is only his second competitive marathon as an elite. So if he is off by just a little in assesment of what he is capable of it will mean disaster. I will give him a 2:05:12. No World World record but a realistic quality time.

i agree with you as Haile has a problem in his achille tendon.

a reasonable time is acceptable

I agree with yo pleez. I expect around 2.06, on a good day, slower if conditions are not so good.

I agree with you. Tergat had Korir pushing him to the tape. I actually think Geb is capable of breaking 2:04 if accompanied and having a good day, but because I do not think he will have someone with him past 30km, I see him running 2:04:31. It is pure specualation, of course. The could end up with 2:05 or or 6...or 2:03 and suprise and delight us all.

I think Mayerhoff is right about Amsterdam. It if flat and fast. It is going to be one of those days to remember, I think. I have forgotten, what is the date of the race?

Its highly likely that Geb. wont allow any top guys if he will be going for the record. thats what his manager has been doing and he happens to be the race director. But expect some great runners to be doing the pacing.

Geb had no one within minutes of him when he set the 10 mile record, so why does he need anyone to push him?

62 will feel like jogging to him at halfway - what will decide his time is how he feels that last 10K.

Who is there will be an irrelevance.

I think he\'ll run 2:04:35, if conditions are good.

The 10 mile to marathon formula looks right tinman.

doesn\'t work with Radcliffe though

she wouldn\'t run 10 miles any faster than 50:00 and that equates to just over 2:20.

Indicates to me the women\'s record is relatively better than the men\'s.

Greg Meyer set the American Record before his PR in the Marathon. That ideology is pure rubbish.

Thanks a lot. Have been trying to crack 6s again for the 1st time in over 5y and I think I havr the endurance. Now working on a little speed. Detroit is a good venue.

Tinman, who took your formulas and passed them off as their own?