How many years of training would it take a sedentary 18 year old male to break 16 minutes in the 5k?

As for David45, I still think you may very well be a clever intern who is EXCELLENT at generating entertainment. I find it hard to believe that a 6:51 HS miler would be spending this much time on an old man’s running website. The kids I have, and those who I work with, are doing many other things than Letsrun updates.

Assuming you are who you claim to be, if I were your coach I would:

1) Ban you from reading / posting on Lestrun until you can run a :57 in the 400 and a 4:55 mile. Then we could negotiate limited access:)

2) Build you up in the weight room and basic athletic skills / coordination work before doing useless, slow tempo runs and other crap that is meant for faster people/ responders.

3) I would also have you run a 12 yard post route on a 3-4 prevent defense - same play, about 5 times in a row.

With 1-3 in place, I could likely get you into the mid 5s for your mile in 6-8 months. Then, you could be on defense as the next kid gets to run the post route.

4-3 Thirty wrote:

As for David45, I still think you may very well be a clever intern who is EXCELLENT at generating entertainment. I find it hard to believe that a 6:51 HS miler would be spending this much time on an old man’s running website. The kids I have, and those who I work with, are doing many other things than Letsrun updates.

Assuming you are who you claim to be, if I were your coach I would:

1) Ban you from reading / posting on Lestrun until you can run a :57 in the 400 and a 4:55 mile. Then we could negotiate limited access:)

Keep it simple. Every mile run = 1 post on letsrun. Want to whine? Go ahead, but run a mile first. Want to whine twice? Run two miles. Want to post 10+ questions a day about shoes? Run 10+ miles a day.

He'd be running 5 flat by the end of the year.

david45 wrote:

And the question that nobody answers is how do I know if I have talent?

Go TT a 400 and mile.

If you are truly untrained and break 70 and 6:00, you can get to 16 easy.

david45 wrote:

weather_guy20439 wrote:

No way.

35-50% of TRACK ATHLETES (and more) never get near those times.

Is that because the lack of talent or lack of hard work?

TALENT!!!

Hard work matters once natural talent (and/or half-assed work) has gotten you to Sub 5, Sub 11, Sub 18.

Most years, most teams, do not have a sub 16 guy. There were 28 in my state last year (Maryland). In the whole state.

To cross this home plate (sub 16), you have to have been born somewhere between 2nd and 3rd base. You're born on 3rd, you can run sub 16 any day, on any training. Born on 2nd? Work your asz off, you might get there. Maybe.

I was 38 - into my career and family. I hadn't run a step in 10 years. Took me 60 days to get to 16 minutes. Ran about 50 miles a week, with an occasional long run. No speed work. I was 3:40 1500 guy in college. Biggest challenge was watching diet and getting my weigh down. I ran my best a 132 lbs. Only got down to 145 then, which likely explained why 16 minutes was my limit at that age.

smart and data-driven wrote:

david45 wrote:

And the question that nobody answers is how do I know if I have talent?

Go TT a 400 and mile.

If you are truly untrained and break 70 and 6:00, you can get to 16 easy.

ya, that works.

basically anyone that has the ability to play a sport in youth, like a full game of basketball, soccer, can go sub 16 min 5K. in 2 years for sure. of course you need to be dedicated and follow the program. its a good thing to do, once you get down to 14 min, that's fanatical, and not necessarily good for your healthy, but fitness for 15min 5k will stay with you for a long long time.

Simply asking this question highlights how much if a relent bubble you're in.

Sub 16 is blazing fast for a normie.

As an example, the marine core fitness test points MAX OUT at 21 minutes for a 3 mile run. Do you realize how fast a 7 minute mile is for a normie? it's fast.

If you're surrounded by people who can break 16 in their sleep, you're in a talent bubble.

something wrong wrote:

I was 38 - into my career and family. I hadn't run a step in 10 years. Took me 60 days to get to 16 minutes. Ran about 50 miles a week, with an occasional long run.

I'm more surprised that you were able to go from 0 to 50 MPW in 60 days.

david45 wrote:

128k wrote:

This - no one cares that you're a runner outside of Let's Run, especially considering you're not in any high school/club team.

Except if I started in my freshman year, I could have gone to college for free and have stories about me in the local news.

stop trolling

4-3 Thirty wrote:

I do think a 4:32 mile / 9:50 2 mile / 16:00 5K is possible for about 35-50% of men “if” they fully dedicate to all aspects of athleticism needed to run a good 3000m time.

However, it takes discipline in many areas of life and training to do it. The other 50% of men may be naturally built like a lineman... or have chronic injuries... or lack a robust endocrine system... or flaws with their nervous system.

Possible? Perhaps. Actually going to happen? No way. The percentage of athletes on actual track teams that can break 16:00 for the 5k is nowhere near that, never mind the general population. There are more than a few colleges, excluding D1 teams, where that would give you the all time school record. As an 18 year old, that time would probably put you in the top 1% of high school runners in any given year.

Okay - I still disagree with those who are saying 15:59 is not possible for 35% of the male population.... who “full-on dedicate“ to training for it.

I have worked with 1000s of people over the last 30 years. Many of the kids that work intelligently for several years make it to that mark - even less talented folks. That pace is not ridiculous.

As I said, slow kids need to stop training from a Jack Daniels book... until they establish acceptable athleticism. I visit XC teams in training and see non-athletic people faking tempo runs and crawling through long runs. Those workouts are a waste of time, IMO.

Get in the weight room and work on power, explosiveness and quickness for 20-30 weeks. I think some coaches undervalue the importance of building the neuromuscular pathways and patterns.

I am in now way bashing the JD book or training principles. They are great. But... the coach needs to identify a poorly coordinated, weak athlete - and fix those issues.

I suspect if you asked the JD team what to do with 5th graders... they would recommend several activities that build coordination and agility... not just running. Soccer, basketball, etc...

When you get a 9th grader who did not get the foundational work, it is best to spend 20-40% of the training week on those activities... not pure distance work. Unfortunately, we don’t have the time so we just throw them into a slow group and they continue slow stuff... and then race slowly.

How are you supposed to tell if you have enough foundational work for training seriously in runnning?

weather_guy20439 wrote:

david45 wrote:

Is that because the lack of talent or lack of hard work?

TALENT!!!

Hard work matters once natural talent (and/or half-assed work) has gotten you to Sub 5, Sub 11, Sub 18.

Most years, most teams, do not have a sub 16 guy. There were 28 in my state last year (Maryland). In the whole state.

To cross this home plate (sub 16), you have to have been born somewhere between 2nd and 3rd base. You're born on 3rd, you can run sub 16 any day, on any training. Born on 2nd? Work your asz off, you might get there. Maybe.

Damn I guess david45 is the home plate umpire lmao

balauwdue wrote:

weather_guy20439 wrote:

TALENT!!!

Hard work matters once natural talent (and/or half-assed work) has gotten you to Sub 5, Sub 11, Sub 18.

Most years, most teams, do not have a sub 16 guy. There were 28 in my state last year (Maryland). In the whole state.

To cross this home plate (sub 16), you have to have been born somewhere between 2nd and 3rd base. You're born on 3rd, you can run sub 16 any day, on any training. Born on 2nd? Work your asz off, you might get there. Maybe.

Damn I guess david45 is the home plate umpire lmao

I wish gene editing was a thing

3

Probably the most accurate post yet

4-3 Thirty wrote:

I do think a 4:32 mile / 9:50 2 mile / 16:00 5K is possible for about 35-50% of men “if” they fully dedicate to all aspects of athleticism needed to run a good 3000m time.

However, it takes discipline in many areas of life and training to do it. The other 50% of men may be naturally built like a lineman... or have chronic injuries... or lack a robust endocrine system... or flaws with their nervous system.

You actually believe this!? So you're saying any high school coach can take a team with 40 random boys and have 20 of them run under 4:30? Seriously? You are so far off. Running under 4:30 is unusual. It doesn't require freakish talent, but a tiny fraction of HS athletes will get under and you're already dealing with selection bias in that group of kids.

runnER/DR wrote:

4-3 Thirty wrote:

I do think a 4:32 mile / 9:50 2 mile / 16:00 5K is possible for about 35-50% of men “if” they fully dedicate to all aspects of athleticism needed to run a good 3000m time.

However, it takes discipline in many areas of life and training to do it. The other 50% of men may be naturally built like a lineman... or have chronic injuries... or lack a robust endocrine system... or flaws with their nervous system.

You actually believe this!? So you're saying any high school coach can take a team with 40 random boys and have 20 of them run under 4:30? Seriously? You are so far off. Running under 4:30 is unusual. It doesn't require freakish talent, but a tiny fraction of HS athletes will get under and you're already dealing with selection bias in that group of kids.

I thought the kids who join high school track were bad in all sports? What selection bias is there?

something wrong wrote:

I was 38 - into my career and family. I hadn't run a step in 10 years. Took me 60 days to get to 16 minutes. Ran about 50 miles a week, with an occasional long run. No speed work. I was 3:40 1500 guy in college. Biggest challenge was watching diet and getting my weigh down. I ran my best a 132 lbs. Only got down to 145 then, which likely explained why 16 minutes was my limit at that age.

^^Example of born on 3rd. :-)

2 mos of nonspecific running at age 38 does it.

Nice work though, seriously. A 3:40 1500 requires effort even if you're born on 3rd.