New Zealand 102 days with out Covid case records 4 new cases from unknown source will lock country down for 3 days

old Zealand wrote:

Armstronglivs wrote:

But didn't Trump close the borders to people from China? Oh, wait ...

He tried to close travel to China very early, but the liberals were shouting xenophobia, racism while trying to impeach him over utter BS. Forget about that part?

So it was an empty boast then, that he closed the borders to China, and the "strong" leader caved in to the liberals? (Never mind that the virus came to the US from Europe, from where Trump allowed travellers to come to the US). But I wouldn't worry if I were you - the burden of fixing all of this will fall on a Democrat president after November.

I’ve designed HVAC systems in Colorado, Texas, SoCal and NorCal for over twenty years. While you may heat your house in Houston during the winter, most commercial buildings, schools, hospitals and places where people assemble still air condition during the winter due to the internal heat gain produced by the occupants, computers, and other equipment. I did a project recently in the Bay Area in a performing arts facility. It had no AC, just a unit ventilator with a small heating coil that was rarely used in heating mode (historical gas bill was negligible). The large discrepancy between LA and the Bay Area is entirely due to climate, not behavior. Trust me, I know a heck of a lot more about HVAC, indoor air quality and infection control than a lawyer. India and Brazil (along with Mexico and the Middle East) are actually some of the fastest growing markets for AC. The school districts in my town have turned off their AC and opened their windows as it effectively triples the number of air changes they get even if it is not as comfortable.

old Zealand wrote:

Armstronglivs wrote:

Over 5 million cases and 163,000 deaths so far (projected to be 300,000 by the end of the year - NZ has had 22 deaths) and an economy in its worst recession since the Great Depression. You need to check your own news sources.

"Economy in its worst since the Great depression. " It could have been, but thanks to Trump, it's not.

Thanks to Trump - it is.

"Until the start of the COVID-19 recession in 2020, no post-World War II era came anywhere near the depth of the Great Depression."

"The US economy shattered records when it plunged 32.9% in the second quarter, according to data released by the Commerce Department".

And ...

"Since the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic, President Donald Trump has railed against shutdowns and shelter-in-place orders, tweeting in all caps that “we cannot let the cure be worse than the problem itself” and pushing for employees to get back to work and businesses to get back to business. But the country has failed to get the virus under control, through masks, contact tracing, mass testing, or any of the other strategies other countries have tried and found successful. That has kneecapped the nascent recovery, and raised the possibility that the unemployment rate, which eased in May and June after nearly reaching 15 percent in April, could spike again later this year."

Haha I see what you did there ;)

Life in NZ is not normal. The country has isolated itself. The tourism industry that accounts for nearly 6% of GDP and ~8% of the NZ workforce is pretty much toast and the gov't is currently subsidizing a lot of people. It's a global economy my friend and NZ is no different than the rest of us. They can insulate themselves (somewhat) from the disease, but they are a part of the global economy. Eventually, they too will have to realize their own citizens need the ability to provide.

The sooner you realize that the plans to remain isolated or repeatedly go into lockdown, do nothing in the long run unless there's a cure, vaccine, or widespread treatments, the sooner we can have reasonable conversation about a path forward. Cutting people off at the knees just to stave off hospitalizations is not a long term plan.

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Shhhh, quiet. This guy is on a roll. Talking about the Great Depression of 2020 while the Dow hops up over 28k again.

back in my day wrote:

This.

It has proven to be math. Populations appear to recover once reported cases get to 15,000 to 20,000 per million. If they are right that asymptomatic cases are 10x, then 20,000 reported = 200,000 infected or 20% of 1,000,000 which is where heard immunity is sufficient to slow the spread.

NZ is flatting the curve and delaying the pain, not winning. There is no winning.

Your figures are wrong. 50-67% of the population would need to be resistant to infection for herd immunity to kick in and infection rates to go down. As this is a novel virus everyone is currently at risk of infection, so there is no immunity to build on.

Allowing the spread of the virus in order to protect the economy is even less of a plan. Tell me how it's working for you in the US?

Exactly! I can't buy a bike, I can't buy a fishing boat, so many products are sold out and we are supposedly facing the worst depression ever! Help wanted signs all over the place and so many are content to stay home and collect more than they have ever earned in their lives through an unemployment bonus! The area I ACTUALLY live in isn't anything like what Armstronglivs projects it is. What am I missing?

Commercial buildings in Texas have heat. My 16 story office building has heat. I know this for a fact because my firm had a big fight with our landlord over control over the HVAC system. The landlord never wanted to turn on the heat and we were all freezing as soon as temps dropped to below 60 degrees. We even made control over the heat a term in our lease when we renewed. And even though we do not use it as much as other places, DFW gets cold and has a real winter. My last business trip in March was to Dallas. It was in the low 40s for a high after a cold front blew through. It is even colder in the panhandle.

India and Brazil may be a fast growing market for AC, but Vietnam and Malaysia are also fast growing economies. Vietnam has seen about 7% consistent GDP growth over the past two decades. Brazil has had more of a constant boom and bust cycle with many economic crises. And the worst outbreaks in India have been in the slums where there is no AC.

Armstronglivs wrote:

Allowing the spread of the virus in order to protect the economy is even less of a plan. Tell me how it's working for you in the US?

Again, I'm explaining to you that the ONLY plan that any gov't has put together is an all or nothing plan to lock everyone down and HOPE there's a vaccine in January and then pray we all don't get cancer from it. That's it. There's no other plan and this has been going on since March.

You praise NZ and other nations for keeping deaths down yet you haven't thought about the long term implications of what happens if there's NO vaccine or widespread treatments. Quite franky, that's about as shortsighted as you can get.

All countries will be experiencing the economic effects of the pandemic. NZ is now predicted to do better than expected.

https://www.interest.co.nz/news/106019/westpac-economists-say-it-now-looks-our-economic-downturn-will-be-more-moderate-end

"However, given our success in limiting the spread of the virus and the signs of firmness in demand, it looks like the downturn in the New Zealand economy will not be as severe as we had previously feared."

Some_Local wrote:

Armstronglivs wrote:

Allowing the spread of the virus in order to protect the economy is even less of a plan. Tell me how it's working for you in the US?

Again, I'm explaining to you that the ONLY plan that any gov't has put together is an all or nothing plan to lock everyone down and HOPE there's a vaccine in January and then pray we all don't get cancer from it. That's it. There's no other plan and this has been going on since March.

You praise NZ and other nations for keeping deaths down yet you haven't thought about the long term implications of what happens if there's NO vaccine or widespread treatments. Quite franky, that's about as shortsighted as you can get.

There is no economic recovery in allowing the spread of the virus. The health crisis and the economy are inextricably linked. So what is your answer - since you can see so far ahead?

Armstronglivs wrote:

All countries will be experiencing the economic effects of the pandemic. NZ is now predicted to do better than expected.

https://www.interest.co.nz/news/106019/westpac-economists-say-it-now-looks-our-economic-downturn-will-be-more-moderate-end

"However, given our success in limiting the spread of the virus and the signs of firmness in demand, it looks like the downturn in the New Zealand economy will not be as severe as we had previously feared."

I read the article. They're expecting a V curve or sorts. However, it's based on a lot of weak data (e.g. people spending more on their CC). Heck, even the first comment in response to this article is quite interesting:

"""I don't think so, some of the top people in the USA are picking an L shape with years of recovery. We are not immune from what happens in the USA and a V is far to optimistic or is that more a case of hope then optimism. The world is nowhere near out of the woods on this yet and I think thats the really hard part to grasp for most people."""

Even the Kiwis themselves doubt the claims of the article and pretty much echo my sentiments --LOL

why so doom and gloom? wrote:

You won't get an answer wrote:

Shhhh, quiet. This guy is on a roll. Talking about the Great Depression of 2020 while the Dow hops up over 28k again.

Exactly! I can't buy a bike, I can't buy a fishing boat, so many products are sold out and we are supposedly facing the worst depression ever! Help wanted signs all over the place and so many are content to stay home and collect more than they have ever earned in their lives through an unemployment bonus! The area I ACTUALLY live in isn't anything like what Armstronglivs projects it is. What am I missing?

Try this.

"The US economy sank for a second quarter in a row as Congress continues to iron out another stimulus package."

"The US economy shattered records when it plunged 32.9% in the second quarter, according to data released by the Commerce Department (PDF) this week."

Some_Local wrote:

Again, I'm explaining to you that the ONLY plan that any gov't has put together is an all or nothing plan to lock everyone down and HOPE there's a vaccine in January and then pray we all don't get cancer from it. That's it. There's no other plan and this has been going on since March.

You praise NZ and other nations for keeping deaths down yet you haven't thought about the long term implications of what happens if there's NO vaccine or widespread treatments. Quite franky, that's about as shortsighted as you can get.

Yes, of course there is no other plan. We have only two options here - vaccine or herd immunity. The herd immunity option requires allowing the virus to burn through the population killing potentially millions. The vaccine option requires us to do this lockdown / distancing thing for maybe a year more, probably less than that. It sucks but given the relatively short wait (I know, I know, it feels like forever), you absolutely try the less deadly option first.

You're right that there's no plan B, and maybe no one wants to talk about it, but do you not agree on giving a fair shot to Plan A first? What is the reason you are being critical right now?

Try this -

Armstronglivs wrote:

Some_Local wrote:

Again, I'm explaining to you that the ONLY plan that any gov't has put together is an all or nothing plan to lock everyone down and HOPE there's a vaccine in January and then pray we all don't get cancer from it. That's it. There's no other plan and this has been going on since March.

You praise NZ and other nations for keeping deaths down yet you haven't thought about the long term implications of what happens if there's NO vaccine or widespread treatments. Quite franky, that's about as shortsighted as you can get.

There is no economic recovery in allowing the spread of the virus. The health crisis and the economy are inextricably linked. So what is your answer - since you can see so far ahead?

Easy to talk like that when you are retired and don't need to find a job in a recession.

Actually, they don't. Most are happy they aren't living anywhere else in the world. Support for Ardern's government is at its highest levels. The exception is an increasingly desperate National Party opposition, of whom I am guessing you are a supporter.

The article also isn't saying that NZ will be unscathed by the economic effects of the pandemic but that the impact will be softer than feared. How many other countries are in that position, while protecting life as NZ has?

Pajac wrote:

Armstronglivs wrote:

There is no economic recovery in allowing the spread of the virus. The health crisis and the economy are inextricably linked. So what is your answer - since you can see so far ahead?

Easy to talk like that when you are retired and don't need to find a job in a recession.

So you can't see so far ahead after all?