zxcvzcxv wrote:
We haven't had this high a percentage of the population lost to an epidemic since 1968-69. We are on the verge of surpassing that 500 per million number. Next up is the 1958 pandemic at 670 per million. I expect we'll surpass that within two months, as it converts to about 220,000 dead with the current population (we have been hitting about 1200-1400 dead per day). So, by early October, this'll have the biggest proportional death toll of an epidemic since the Spanish Flu a century ago, and it is already the biggest death toll in simple terms since then. But a once a century event is beyond your ken.
COVID appears to top out somewhere between 600 to 900 deaths per million in a population depending on the health and age of the population. Many places in the US are close to herd immunity. Even with our counting we aren't getting to 1200.
You have to remember in past pandemics we didn't do this massive testing and tell drs to record a viral death if there was a positive test. They had to do it by clinical method of telling what was the real cause of death based on their medical expertise. If had used this same method in the time of Asian and Hong Kong flu the death toll from those would have been much higher.