57 COVID deaths in GA today: Post-opening spike starting?

Has Giles given up on his covid denial?

07/09 Data

The worsening trend is settling in.

Looking at the 7 day average of daily deaths, both the US and the world are stair stepping in the wrong direction.

The US is the highest since June 24, the world is the highest since June 22.

In the US the real damage is being done in CA FL TX and to a lesser extend AZ. Those states are around 70% of US deaths.

CA FL TX again hit new highs in their 7 day rolling average of daily deaths. If you add all four states together, their death toll was an astonishing 37% higher on 7/9 compared to a week earlier. Multiply that out a few weeks and we'll be back to 2,000 deaths per day in a month.

Question is what these states will do. Will they shut down like the Northeast did, to kill this thing?

Will the freedumb people finally wear masks?

In the world, India's death toll is a remarkable 27% higher compared to a week ago. That one could run for a long time.

agip wrote:

Has Giles given up on his covid denial?

The larger question would be, "Has he given up on his antisemitism?"

Seems that the Covid pushers have forgotten to up the daily deaths in Georgia.

Still way down.

How does this fit the narrative of early openings causing spikes in Covid

Take a close look at daily death numbers over the past few months.

Not credible.

11, 10, and 119 on April 4 thru 6?

4, 2, 28, 77, ....

1, 5, 40, 20...

This is nonsense people. These series are ridiculous

Made up numbers.

It's all narrative totally divorced from reality.

L'Oncle wrote:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/georgia/

Seems that the Covid pushers have forgotten to up the daily deaths in Georgia.

Still way down.

How does this fit the narrative of early openings causing spikes in Covid

It fits perfectly because the early openings caused a massive spike in Covid.

It looks like deaths are starting to rise as well. Check out the official 7 day moving average from June 20 to June 26. Death data after that time is still incomplete.

L'Oncle wrote:

Take a close look at daily death numbers over the past few months.

Not credible.

11, 10, and 119 on April 4 thru 6?

4, 2, 28, 77, ....

1, 5, 40, 20...

This is nonsense people. These series are ridiculous

Made up numbers.

It's all narrative totally divorced from reality.

There is no nonsense if you understand how the data is collated. You are looking at daily deaths sorted by the day they were reported to the health department. The graph I referenced is showing deaths sorted by day of death. That's the one you should be looking at if you are interested in trends.

[quote]Fat hurts wrote:

[quote]L'Oncle wrote:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/georgia/

Huh? Daily deaths are way, way down from the 57 that sparked this post to claim the spike due to early opening was underway. Highest number in past two weeks is 25 with days as low as 1. How does this possibly cause to assert that "It fits perfectly because the early openings caused a massive spike in Covid." Can you please extrapolate?

"It looks like deaths are starting to rise as well. Check out the official 7 day moving average from June 20 to June 26. Death data after that time is still incomplete."

I urge anyone to look at the chart and then explain the above comment.

The fact is that the narrative forgot about Georgia.

Now focused on FLA, Cali Ariz.

Look at the series of numbers of daily deaths per the official data.

The inconsistency and ups and downs are simply not credible. You don't need to have studied math to see this...its jumps right out.

The people selling the Covid narrative are the people putting out the official numbers.

Fat hurts wrote:

L'Oncle wrote:

Take a close look at daily death numbers over the past few months.

Not credible.

11, 10, and 119 on April 4 thru 6?

4, 2, 28, 77, ....

1, 5, 40, 20...

This is nonsense people. These series are ridiculous

Made up numbers.

It's all narrative totally divorced from reality.

There is no nonsense if you understand how the data is collated. You are looking at daily deaths sorted by the day they were reported to the health department. The graph I referenced is showing deaths sorted by day of death. That's the one you should be looking at if you are interested in trends.

This is called either rationalization or simply denial.

The series of numbers are nonsensical.

L'Oncle wrote:

Fat hurts wrote:

There is no nonsense if you understand how the data is collated. You are looking at daily deaths sorted by the day they were reported to the health department. The graph I referenced is showing deaths sorted by day of death. That's the one you should be looking at if you are interested in trends.

This is called either rationalization or simply denial.

The series of numbers are nonsensical.

The series of numbers are indeed nonsensical. That is because the numbers are not "truth", nor are they collected and sorted the same way every day. There is so much variability on a given day that looking at short-term trends is futile.

I don't agree that Georgia's one day death total of 57 points to a spike in deaths. That is foolish for the reason that I outlined above. But it's just as foolish to point to a day with a single death as proof of anything.

L'Oncle wrote:

Fat hurts wrote:

There is no nonsense if you understand how the data is collated. You are looking at daily deaths sorted by the day they were reported to the health department. The graph I referenced is showing deaths sorted by day of death. That's the one you should be looking at if you are interested in trends.

This is called either rationalization or simply denial.

The series of numbers are nonsensical.

oncle I'll respond to you only once (probably) because you seem to be either really ignorant or a troll.

Daily death counts mustn't be interpreted to be 'exactly 34 people died on July 7.' that's not how this works. Deaths have to be certified - they have to go through a governmental process. That process is not smooth. It is very lumpy. We see clear weekly patterns of low numbers on Sunday, Monday and holidays. Then we get catch up days.

That's why we look at 7 or 14 day moving averages. To smooth out the lumps.

Ok? Do you have any interest in learning stuff or do you 'know' everything you ever want to know about covid?

There is some positive news. There were two more negative tests yesterday. Took my girls to get tested - negative! :) They had to have a negative test in order to go to an out of state camp next week.

L'Oncle wrote:

Fat hurts wrote:

There is no nonsense if you understand how the data is collated. You are looking at daily deaths sorted by the day they were reported to the health department. The graph I referenced is showing deaths sorted by day of death. That's the one you should be looking at if you are interested in trends.

This is called either rationalization or simply denial.

The series of numbers are nonsensical.

This is called, "You don't understand the data"

Mayor Bottoms has three members of her family infected with COVID. The family was tested and it took 8 days for them to get results. If even the mayor of Atlanta has to wait 8 days for results, we have a major problem. During that time, she and her family possibly infected many others.

PLEASE DON'T GET TESTED UNLESS YOU HAVE GOOD REASON TO BELIEVE THAT YOU ARE INFECTED. TESTING RESOURCES ARE SERIOUSLY BACKED UP.

agip wrote:

Daily death counts mustn't be interpreted to be 'exactly 34 people died on July 7.' that's not how this works. Deaths have to be certified - they have to go through a governmental process. That process is not smooth. It is very lumpy. We see clear weekly patterns of low numbers on Sunday, Monday and holidays. Then we get catch up days.

That's why we look at 7 or 14 day moving averages. To smooth out the lumps.

Ok? Do you have any interest in learning stuff or do you 'know' everything you ever want to know about covid?

Blatant rationalization and denial.

Fat hurts wrote:

L'Oncle wrote:

This is called either rationalization or simply denial.

The series of numbers are nonsensical.

This is called, "You don't understand the data"

We all can read numbers off of a chart.

You read those same numbers and then, in order to affirm your confirmation bias, go into some farce about rolling averages and collating numbers.

The numbers are the numbers and the pattern exposes them as nonsense

New cases appear to be flattening out for several reasons (although at a high level).

Experiencing the small bump in deaths I forecasted earlier (smaller than I initially thought)

Most likely place to contract COVID-19: Home

Wear a mask

Social distance

Wash your hands

GET TESTED

Nuname wrote:

We all can read numbers off of a chart.

You read those same numbers and then, in order to affirm your confirmation bias, go into some farce about rolling averages and collating numbers.

The numbers are the numbers and the pattern exposes them as nonsense

Low-watt trollage.

Try harder next time.

Nuname wrote:

Fat hurts wrote:

This is called, "You don't understand the data"

We all can read numbers off of a chart.

You read those same numbers and then, in order to affirm your confirmation bias, go into some farce about rolling averages and collating numbers.

The numbers are the numbers and the pattern exposes them as nonsense

A first grader can read the numbers too. But that first grader can't make sense of them.

You need to go back to school.

It looks like deaths are starting to rise as well. Check out the official 7 day moving average from June 20 to June 26. Death data after that time is still incomplete.

https://dph.georgia.gov/covid-19-daily-status-report

Deaths will lag 2-3 weeks behind infection rates because that is how long the course of fatal infections takes.

We're now just seeing the jump up in deaths the past two days...