57 COVID deaths in GA today: Post-opening spike starting?

Just admit you are wrong. Look at the numbers.

Giles Corey wrote:

tydi6 wrote:

A thousand posts? Who'da thunk?

Well, the spike took a while, but it has steadily increased. Somehow some people will deny this still though.

Not my post.

Someone hacking

7/7 Data

The surge in deaths is here, I'm sorry to say.

We've been looking at that steep rise in cases in S and W states and marveling at the low death counts. Wondering it it was sustainable.

It's not sustainable- deaths are surging in TX, FL, CA, AZ.

The rolling 7 day average of deaths in those states is up C. 19% over a week ago. Each of those states is at all time highs in deaths.

Multiply today's death count by 20% per week and we're looking at enormous numbers of dead Americans.

Indeed, the 7 day average for America as a whole has begun to rise.

The hope is that the July 4 holiday is skewing the data. We'll see as the week goes along.

The globe had been a plateau but global death totals seem to be rising again also. India is on that steady stairstep that goes on day after day. Pakistan is accelerating the wrong way. Brazil is on a plateau.

Not a good day in dataland. Let's hope the holiday fouled up the reporting and things aren't this bad.

You claimed 20% per week rise in deaths, week after week.

Shall we go thru the data again?

Giles Corey wrote:

You claimed 20% per week rise in deaths, week after week.

Shall we go thru the data again?

Ok you calculate a 7 day rolling average of daily deaths for TX FL CA AZ and then if you have a different interpretation of the data let me know.

Or if you think there is a better way to look at the data that might be interesting.

But I might just ignore you since you may not be interested in learning anything.

7-day average of new hospitalizations has risen 100% since 6/21.

7-day average of new ICUs has risen 40% since 6/21

7-day average of reported deaths has dropped 52% since 6/21

7-day average of reported cases has risen 170% since 6/21

Wear a mask

Social distance

Wash your hands

GET TESTED

brazen2 wrote:

7-day average of new hospitalizations has risen 100% since 6/21.

7-day average of new ICUs has risen 40% since 6/21

7-day average of reported deaths has dropped 52% since 6/21

7-day average of reported cases has risen 170% since 6/21

Wear a mask

Social distance

Wash your hands

GET TESTED

And what comes next is obvious. And sad. But yes, these are the facts.

Texas Med Center in Houston reported a dip in hospital admission over the past two days. Hard to tell whether it is a sign that we have peaked or whether it is just a data blip. But the bad news is that the hospital admissions were still above 250 a day, which is still not sustainable. A PA I know who works in the ER in the Med Center said this is like having a major explosion at a refinery every day in terms of ER and ICU demand.

With the lag between infection and symptoms being about a week and testing delays, the current numbers are probably related to infections that took place 10-14 days ago. That is when it was clear things were getting out of control and people started dialing back and staying home. Of course, there are idiots who are still out there eating out and doing whatever without a mask, but I would hope that we are heading towards a plateau sometime this week or next. The big question is whether the southern states will be able to see negative case growth with the minimal measure put in place or will just flatten out at a relatively high level of infection and blow up the health system. Or worse, start loosening restrictions again and see the whole thing play out again.

these numbers I'm seeing are very very bad. globally and in the trouble states.

deaths are climbing up a wall now. The US had a good run of declining deaths but that's over now.

Houston, Phoenix... We have a problem.

https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/1281025956635787264

agip wrote:

these numbers I'm seeing are very very bad. globally and in the trouble states.

deaths are climbing up a wall now. The US had a good run of declining deaths but that's over now.

Where do you see those numbers?

Worldwide daily deaths are about 50% of what they were during April peak.

In America, they are about 1/10th of what they were at their peak

0709 Data

Things are falling apart - getting bad very quickly.

I'm looking at the 7 day moving average of daily deaths and nothing else.

Globally that number is rising quickly and the highest since around June 23. Up 5% in a week.

In the US that number is rising quickly and the highest since around June 29. Up 4% from a week ago.

In the US, looking at the 4 problem states (FL TX AZ CA) as one, the 7 day average of daily deaths is around 22% higher than a week ago and the highest recorded. 22% growth in a week is exactly what you don't want to see in an epidemic - that kind of growth leads to enormous numbers of deaths.

Week over week change in the 4 states by percent (again, 7 day moving average of daily deaths)

FL: +26%

CA: +26%

AZ: -5%

TX: +65%

In the world, Brazil and India are at all time highs in deaths. India just keeps stair-stepping up relentlessly. Brazil is mostly on a spiky plateau.

The only hope for the US is that the July 4 holiday has fouled up stats beyond meaning for 7 days.

One interesting question is if the disease can re-establish itself in the Northeast. I think that will be tested as Floridians escape their state for a Northeast haven.

L'Oncle wrote:

agip wrote:

these numbers I'm seeing are very very bad. globally and in the trouble states.

deaths are climbing up a wall now. The US had a good run of declining deaths but that's over now.

Where do you see those numbers?

Worldwide daily deaths are about 50% of what they were during April peak.

In America, they are about 1/10th of what they were at their peak

USA

I'm looking at trends, not absolute levels. See post above.

Although in the four problem states the absolute levels *are* at records (and growing quickly)

I use Worldometers data. Due to cutoffs at different times during the day it can vary from other sources.

agip wrote:

L'Oncle wrote:

Where do you see those numbers?

Worldwide daily deaths are about 50% of what they were during April peak.

In America, they are about 1/10th of what they were at their peak

USA

I'm looking at trends, not absolute levels. See post above.

Although in the four problem states the absolute levels *are* at records (and growing quickly)

I use Worldometers data. Due to cutoffs at different times during the day it can vary from other sources.

I copied and pasted the worldometers daily deaths charts.

Daily deaths are way, way down from the peaks. I am not talking about projections , just data.

You guy are talking about two different things, and you can both be right.

L'Oncle wrote:

agip wrote:

I'm looking at trends, not absolute levels. See post above.

Although in the four problem states the absolute levels *are* at records (and growing quickly)

I use Worldometers data. Due to cutoffs at different times during the day it can vary from other sources.

I copied and pasted the worldometers daily deaths charts.

Daily deaths are way, way down from the peaks. I am not talking about projections , just data.

we're not disagreeing. Yes, at the April peaks deaths were higher.

But compared to the June lows deaths are rising quickly.

This disease has tended to work in long trends. Seems clear to me that the downward trend has ended and the new trend is upward (more deaths).

Esp in TX CA FL.

we do disagree on the calculation of change of deaths.

Going by 7 day rolling averages, deaths have fallen less than you claim:

US: -75%

World: -29%

Maybe you aren't looking at 7 day averages, I dunno.

7-day average of reported deaths: 14

Wear a mask

Social distance

Wash your hands

GET TESTED

another very bad day in TX AZ CA FL

data aren't even all in yet and the 7 day average of daily deaths is +31% over a week ago.

That is horrific if it continues.

And we still have almost 3 hours of reporting to go.