57 COVID deaths in GA today: Post-opening spike starting?

6/5 stats

Tale of two places.

The US keeps improving, but other parts of the world have become much worse, making the global stats worsen.

This has been the pattern...China then W Europe then USA and now Brazil and Mexico. The hotspot is very bad and then moves on to the next.

For Americans, good news: The 7 day average of daily deaths declined again to new cyclical lows. 925 per day vs a high of 2189 per day in mid/late April.

The world had declined for a long time but now it seems to be heading back up. The rolling 7 day average of daily deaths around the world hit its worst number since around May 24.

Brazil and Mexico are the biggest problems - they are causing the world numbers to increase.

In the rankings Georgia actually moved one place to the better. After being 16th worst for a long time, now it is 17th worst. MN passed GA.

Brazil keeps ascending the tables...up to 20th from 28th three weeks ago.

Kobe City General Medical Hospital study on a thousand blood samples: only 0,01% died of Covid. The prudence of scientists: do not let your guard down

TOKYO. The mortality of covid19 could be far lower than what scientists had previously believed. Even one in ten thousand. This is what emerges from a study conducted by Kobe City Medical Central General Hospital that collected 1.000 blood samples from patients who visited the hospital in late March and early April.

Patients with coronavirus symptoms were excluded from the sample. Of these thousand 33 people, or 3,3% tested positive for Covid19 antibodies.

If the analyzes were confirmed by further tests in other prefectures of Japan, the mortality of Covid19 would plummet to 0.01%, or even lower than the seasonal flu.

The doctors who performed the tests remain cautious as they are still samples taken exclusively from outpatients, but the director of the hospital, Kihara Yasuki, has however reiterated that there is a high possibility that many more people have actually been infected from Covid19 with respect to the hypotheses made so far. To these data are added hundreds of patients affected by the seasonal flu who had already noticed "unusual" symptoms in January.

Kobe is one of the most cosmopolitan Japanese cities, so that Covid19 arrived here already at the end of last year is not at all improbable.

Looks like Georgia 7 day average for positivity rated dropped to 8.6%.

Oregon is up yesterday. Arizona, Texas and Oregon all up.

brazen2 wrote:

Looks like Georgia 7 day average for positivity rated dropped to 8.6%.

I have it even better, at 8.27%. Where did your number come from?

Georgia DPH puts overall positivity since the beginning at 8.9%. But I don't see how that's possible. Surely, the positivity rate has dropped more than that over time.

If we are not doing markedly better with testing then we certainly have no business being open.

some good news from Europe - no spike after they've started opening.

It seems that wearing masks, some minimal social distancing and protecting old people can hold this thing in check.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/06/05/coronavirus-infections-havent-spiked-since-europe-loosened-lockdowns-there-are-many-theories-about-why/

Fat hurts wrote:

brazen2 wrote:

Looks like Georgia 7 day average for positivity rated dropped to 8.6%.

I have it even better, at 8.27%. Where did your number come from?

Georgia DPH puts overall positivity since the beginning at 8.9%. But I don't see how that's possible. Surely, the positivity rate has dropped more than that over time.

If we are not doing markedly better with testing then we certainly have no business being open.

Data from Georgia Dept Public Health.

As another poster said, testing is open to all Georgia residents. Weren't you the one saying you felt no need to get tested? How can we get better with testing if people refuse to get tested?

Positivity has gotten better. One month ago (5/5), the positivity rate was 14.8%.

It seems a lot of Georgia is heading in the right direction. For example, my county (top 10 in population) has only had 5 deaths since mid-April and none since May 20.

agip wrote:

some good news from Europe - no spike after they've started opening.

It seems that wearing masks, some minimal social distancing and protecting old people can hold this thing in check.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/06/05/coronavirus-infections-havent-spiked-since-europe-loosened-lockdowns-there-are-many-theories-about-why/

It's strange how little we know. The cases in Georgia spiked just as predicted. But now it seems to be leveling off for no apparent reason. My best guess is that the weather has people outside more.

But here in the South, when June, July, and August roll around, people start to move indoors again. So if cases start going up around the end of the month, it might tell us something.

It will also be interesting to see if scientists will be able to trace transmission to the protests. If not, then that may mean outdoor transmission really is extremely rare. That would be a good thing for football season.

brazen2 wrote:

Fat hurts wrote:

I have it even better, at 8.27%. Where did your number come from?

Georgia DPH puts overall positivity since the beginning at 8.9%. But I don't see how that's possible. Surely, the positivity rate has dropped more than that over time.

If we are not doing markedly better with testing then we certainly have no business being open.

Data from Georgia Dept Public Health.

As another poster said, testing is open to all Georgia residents. Weren't you the one saying you felt no need to get tested? How can we get better with testing if people refuse to get tested?

Positivity has gotten better. One month ago (5/5), the positivity rate was 14.8%.

It seems a lot of Georgia is heading in the right direction. For example, my county (top 10 in population) has only had 5 deaths since mid-April and none since May 20.

I'm following the guidance from health experts. As I told that other poster, the Georgia DPH and the CDC seem to discourage people like me from getting tested. Testing is still a limited resource and a test on me would be wasted because the only time I could possibly be exposed is when I go to the grocery every three weeks. I guess you could argue that I should get tested after I go to the grocery, but even then it would be of limited value. And going to get tested has risks as well. After all, the testing site is where the sick people go. Perhaps I will ask my doctor about it.

As far as I can tell, we can't know the positivity rate from one month ago, so I'm wondering exactly where you got your data. Georgia didn't start breaking out molecular tests from serology tests until about a week ago. The positivity rate for molecular tests is the main thing to look at right now, and we don't know what that was earlier.

If you are getting data from GA DPH, are you looking at combined positivity? If not, maybe I'm missing where the two kinds of tests are broken out for earlier dates?

Fat hurts wrote:

It will also be interesting to see if scientists will be able to trace transmission to the protests. If not, then that may mean outdoor transmission really is extremely rare. That would be a good thing for football season.

I think there is a huge difference between being in a moving mix of people at a rally in the outdoors and sitting stationary in a packed semi -enclosed environment for 3 hour being breathed on by someone with COVID-19. seems like a super spreader event ready to happen. I mean with 60,000+ fans, you are going to probably have hundreds of COVID positive people in the stands. Even if each one only infects two people that's several hundred extra cases ....in each stadium.

game over wrote:

Fat hurts wrote:

It will also be interesting to see if scientists will be able to trace transmission to the protests. If not, then that may mean outdoor transmission really is extremely rare. That would be a good thing for football season.

I think there is a huge difference between being in a moving mix of people at a rally in the outdoors and sitting stationary in a packed semi -enclosed environment for 3 hour being breathed on by someone with COVID-19. seems like a super spreader event ready to happen. I mean with 60,000+ fans, you are going to probably have hundreds of COVID positive people in the stands. Even if each one only infects two people that's several hundred extra cases ....in each stadium.

Yeah, you are probably right.

brazen2 wrote:

It seems a lot of Georgia is heading in the right direction. For example, my county (top 10 in population) has only had 5 deaths since mid-April and none since May 20.

I also live in one of the larger counties. We've been doing pretty well on a per-capita basis, but lately cases have started to rise.

The odd thing is that total deaths have gone down the last two days in my county. People are rising from the dead!

This would be understandable if I lived in Coweta county. I hear they are crawling with zombies. :-)

If the data from 5/5 is combined positivity would make the rate lower, correct. So, the PCR positivity for that date would likely be even higher than 14.8%, correct? Resulting in an even lower drop.

I guess I'm not following your logic. You are looking at positivity as an reason for not reopening Georgia. That doesn't make sense if you are looking to get an accurate measure of positivity. You also say certain people shouldn't get tested and the CDC and GADPH is telling certain groups of people NOT to get tested or discouraging them. Can you point to where the CDC or GADPH says that certain groups of people should not get tested. I'd be astounded if that is the case.

I think that your attitude about getting tested is unreasonable to say the least. People shouldn't get tested because that is where the sick people are? That's crazy. I think you need to educate yourself on the testing process. All the testing locations I know are outside - in parks or empty parking lots. CVS does a drive up where you don't get out of your car and you administer the test yourself - it's a very simple nasal swab. You'd have a much higher chance of getting sick going to the grocery store.

We need more testing, not less.People need to be encouraged to be tested and not discouraged. I'm sure there are a lot of people like you out there that are asymptomatic positive, but don't think they need to get tested either.

Read the article on South Korea. Testing is the primary reason they handled the virus so well.

Fat hurts wrote:

brazen2 wrote:

It seems a lot of Georgia is heading in the right direction. For example, my county (top 10 in population) has only had 5 deaths since mid-April and none since May 20.

I also live in one of the larger counties. We've been doing pretty well on a per-capita basis, but lately cases have started to rise.

The odd thing is that total deaths have gone down the last two days in my county. People are rising from the dead!

This would be understandable if I lived in Coweta county. I hear they are crawling with zombies. :-)

I'm sure it's just a correction and not a conspiracy to keep numbers down.

It's after 3pm, so I assume all data is in for Georgia today.

If the data holds up, it looks like a fantastic one data-wise.

4.6% positivity rate for the day.

7 day average now 7.4% (~15% one month ago)

7 day cases still trending down

0 deaths

Fat hurts wrote:

game over wrote:

I think there is a huge difference between being in a moving mix of people at a rally in the outdoors and sitting stationary in a packed semi -enclosed environment for 3 hour being breathed on by someone with COVID-19. seems like a super spreader event ready to happen. I mean with 60,000+ fans, you are going to probably have hundreds of COVID positive people in the stands. Even if each one only infects two people that's several hundred extra cases ....in each stadium.

Yeah, you are probably right.

apparently in Vegas this weekend things are back to normal - large indoor spaces with no one wearing masks. And some quite unhealthy specimens.

I would be surprised if there isn't an outbreak there that people drag back to their home towns.

I mean LA county is a hot spot right now and i'm sure there are tens of thousands of angelenos in vegas this weekend infecting other people.

but still...it seems to take something unusual to get a massive deadly outbreak.

a tidbit: GA went another place in the right direction in ranking of US states per capita deaths.

After being 16th worst for a long time it is now 18th worst, having been passed by MN and NH.

6/6 data

More of the same: Global conditions rapidly getting worse but good improvement in the US.

Globally the trend is in the wrong direction, as the 7 day rolling average of daily deaths continues to climb after bottoming on May 30. The 6/6 number is its highest since May 23.

But new cyclical lows in the US. Best number since April 3. The US was just 17% of daily deaths after being around 35% for many weeks.

In the rankings, Mexico is up to 25th worst after being 34th worst around 10 days ago.

Some movement in the state rankings. Most notably GA is getting relatively better. It's a closely watched state (with its own LRC thread) so this will be noticed. Down to 18th worst state after being 16th worst for a long time. Passed by NH and MN.

NC got one spot worse: to 33rd from 34th. That state is a political football due to the RNC being moved.

Yes, we don't know what the GA positivity rate was before a few days ago. So there is no way to compare.

Let me first say, I am all for testing. We need more (a lot more) of it. But the purpose of testing is to find positive cases. A negative test is always a waste of resources. So you want to prioritize the people who are most likely to be positive. That's definitely not me.

Sure, you could get the positivity rate down by testing lots of people like me over and over. The reason you look at positivity is because it should be a measure of how hard it is to find new cases. That doesn't work if you emphasize testing people who are extremely unlikely to be positive.

On the CDC web site under "Who should be tested", it says:

* Most people will have mild illness and can recover at home without medical care and may not need to be tested. (If some symptomatic people don't need a test, that strongly suggests testing of unexposed asymptomatic individuals is wasteful)

* Although supplies of tests are increasing, it may still be difficult to find a place to get tested. (Again, testing is a finite resource)

This all implies that asymptomatic people without exposure to COVID-19 probably don't need to seek a test right now.

Theoretically, anyone in Georgia can get a free test. But if you look at the GA DPH page for COVID-19 Online Testing Request, asymptomatic patients are clearly a low priority.

As for how South Korea beat the virus, it wasn't just testing and tracing. It was the combination of quarantine, good public heath practices, and testing. Or as I've been saying all along, the basic plan should be this:

1) Shut it down

2) Stop the spread

3) Test and trace

Without 1 and 2, testing and tracing is a lost cause. There just isn't enough manpower to do the testing and tracing you would need when you still have widespread infection.

You still want to do testing and tracing because it still benefits public health. But you won't be able to defeat the virus without 1 and 2 as well.