Just want to point out the amazing success Spain has had.
After being one of the very hardest hit nations on the planet with 700-800 deaths per day at the peak...they have just 1-5 deaths per day now. And will likely soon be caught by the UK in per capita deaths.
It's a good sign for the rest of us. Unless they have been in a hard lockdown for 6 weeks.
Spain has had one of the strictest lockdowns.
Another update on Georgia's numbers.
First, the exponential growth in cases continues to take shape. So no change there.
Now that Georgia is breaking out PCR tests vs. Seriology (antibody) tests, we can get some insight into the daily positivity rate. This is just the number of new cases divided by the total PCR tests. This positivity rate gives you an idea of how well Georgia is doing in casting a wide enough net to tell if lots of COVID cases are being missed.
The WHO recommends (among other things) that we have 14 days of positivity below 5% before opening up. The CDC says 14 days of declining positivity (and cases) before opening.
I've seen other experts say that you really need positivity to be below 2%. That way, we know that other numbers such as "days of declining cases" are reasonably accurate.
When Georgia was combining both PCR tests and antibody tests, the positivity rate was looking pretty good. Most days it would be between 2% and 6%. However, now that we know how many of those are PCR tests (for new cases), the positivity rate looks a lot worse:
Date/Cases/PCR Tests/Positivity Rate
May 28 / 628 / 4430 / 14.18%
May 29 / 597 / 5085 / 11.74%
May 30 / 468 / 4567 / 10.25%
As a Georgia resident this is disturbing to me because:
1. New cases are spiking upward
2. We still aren't testing nearly enough and therefore we don't know how bad the situation really is.
3. Bars and Nightclubs open on Monday.
Fat hurts wrote:
Another update on Georgia's numbers.
First, the exponential growth in cases continues to take shape. So no change there.
https://ibb.co/cww3qZYNow that Georgia is breaking out PCR tests vs. Seriology (antibody) tests, we can get some insight into the daily positivity rate. This is just the number of new cases divided by the total PCR tests. This positivity rate gives you an idea of how well Georgia is doing in casting a wide enough net to tell if lots of COVID cases are being missed.
The WHO recommends (among other things) that we have 14 days of positivity below 5% before opening up. The CDC says 14 days of declining positivity (and cases) before opening.
I've seen other experts say that you really need positivity to be below 2%. That way, we know that other numbers such as "days of declining cases" are reasonably accurate.
When Georgia was combining both PCR tests and antibody tests, the positivity rate was looking pretty good. Most days it would be between 2% and 6%. However, now that we know how many of those are PCR tests (for new cases), the positivity rate looks a lot worse:
Date/Cases/PCR Tests/Positivity Rate
May 28 / 628 / 4430 / 14.18%
May 29 / 597 / 5085 / 11.74%
May 30 / 468 / 4567 / 10.25%
As a Georgia resident this is disturbing to me because:
1. New cases are spiking upward
2. We still aren't testing nearly enough and therefore we don't know how bad the situation really is.
3. Bars and Nightclubs open on Monday.
2. Who do you want to test? Everyone? How often?
GA Gal wrote:
Fat hurts wrote:
Another update on Georgia's numbers.
First, the exponential growth in cases continues to take shape. So no change there.
https://ibb.co/cww3qZYNow that Georgia is breaking out PCR tests vs. Seriology (antibody) tests, we can get some insight into the daily positivity rate. This is just the number of new cases divided by the total PCR tests. This positivity rate gives you an idea of how well Georgia is doing in casting a wide enough net to tell if lots of COVID cases are being missed.
The WHO recommends (among other things) that we have 14 days of positivity below 5% before opening up. The CDC says 14 days of declining positivity (and cases) before opening.
I've seen other experts say that you really need positivity to be below 2%. That way, we know that other numbers such as "days of declining cases" are reasonably accurate.
When Georgia was combining both PCR tests and antibody tests, the positivity rate was looking pretty good. Most days it would be between 2% and 6%. However, now that we know how many of those are PCR tests (for new cases), the positivity rate looks a lot worse:
Date/Cases/PCR Tests/Positivity Rate
May 28 / 628 / 4430 / 14.18%
May 29 / 597 / 5085 / 11.74%
May 30 / 468 / 4567 / 10.25%
As a Georgia resident this is disturbing to me because:
1. New cases are spiking upward
2. We still aren't testing nearly enough and therefore we don't know how bad the situation really is.
3. Bars and Nightclubs open on Monday.
2. Who do you want to test? Everyone? How often?
"Who to test" is determined by medical experts, not me.
Six weeks.
USA 3 months
[quote]Fat hurts wrote:
[quote]GA Gal wrote:
[quote]Fat hurts wrote:
Another update on Georgia's numbers.
First, the exponential growth in cases continues to take shape. So no change there.
A complete lie.
Giles Corey wrote:
[quote]Fat hurts wrote:
[quote]GA Gal wrote:
[quote]Fat hurts wrote:
Another update on Georgia's numbers.
First, the exponential growth in cases continues to take shape. So no change there.
https://ibb.co/cww3qZYA complete lie.
https://www.google.com/search?q=coronavirus+deaths+in+georgia&rlz=1C1CHBF_enUS750US750&oq=co&aqs=chrome.2.69i60j69i59l2j69i57j69i59j69i60l3.5042j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8
So you are saying that the Georgia Department of Health is lying?
5/30 data
Another day of improvement.
7 day averages of daily deaths fell to another cyclical low in both the world and the US.
Lowest 7 day averages since the first week of April.
No changes in the rankings of nations or states. Of those I'm tracking anyway.
Cases in California have moved up sharply to new highs. But I try not to talk about cases because of the vagaries involved. Deaths in CA have been stable.
Fat hurts wrote:
Giles Corey wrote:
[quote]Fat hurts wrote:
[quote]GA Gal wrote:
[quote]Fat hurts wrote:
Another update on Georgia's numbers.
First, the exponential growth in cases continues to take shape. So no change there.
https://ibb.co/cww3qZYA complete lie.
https://www.google.com/search?q=coronavirus+deaths+in+georgia&rlz=1C1CHBF_enUS750US750&oq=co&aqs=chrome.2.69i60j69i59l2j69i57j69i59j69i60l3.5042j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8So you are saying that the Georgia Department of Health is lying?
The numbers speak for themselves.
No spike.
Giles Corey wrote:
Fat hurts wrote:
So you are saying that the Georgia Department of Health is lying?
The numbers speak for themselves.
No spike.
Your link is for deaths. And deaths lag cases by 2 to 10 weeks. So most of the data you are looking at is from transmission that occurred while Georgia was still in lockdown or shortly thereafter. What your link shows is that the lockdown was working!
The graph from the Georgia Department of Health is showing the data with each case assigned to the date that symptoms first occurred. This is far more accurate because it gets you close to the transmission date for each case.
What this clearly shows is that transmission in Georgia is growing exponentially.
Fat hurts wrote:
GA Gal wrote:
2. Who do you want to test? Everyone? How often?
"Who to test" is determined by medical experts, not me.
Who do the medical experts say should be tested? Everyone? How often?
You keep on harping on not enough testing is being done in GA and the US. You must have some knowledge or opinion.
BTW, I’ve been tested twice since they opened it up to everyone. Have you been tested?
Giles Corey wrote:
Timothy Foyle wrote:
I'm going to have to give 8/10.
Really solid effort. Very entertaining.
Lost a few points due to lack of responses but definitely solid character acting.
Drop the passive voice BS and stand up like a man.
I responded to every single point.
Indeed, you are a man! A manly man! Perhaps even THE MAN. I could never even hope to be so manly. So why try?
And I'll give you a 3/10. Definitely a step down in quality from your previous efforts.
GA Gal wrote:
Fat hurts wrote:
"Who to test" is determined by medical experts, not me.
Who do the medical experts say should be tested? Everyone? How often?
You keep on harping on not enough testing is being done in GA and the US. You must have some knowledge or opinion.
BTW, I’ve been tested twice since they opened it up to everyone. Have you been tested?
As I've explained, it is not my opinion that there is not enough testing. That's the opinion of experts. The WHO, the CDC, and other epidemiologists all say that the positivity rate needs to be lower before we open up. There are two ways to get the positivity rate down:
1) Strict quarantine, so that the virus does not spread
2) More testing, so that you have more confidence that you are catching most of the cases
I have not been tested. I go to the grocery store every three weeks and occasionally get takeout. Other than that, I only interact with my family. So I see no reason to be tested. But if experts said that someone like me should be tested then I would try to go and get a test.
Fat hurts wrote:
As I've explained, it is not my opinion that there is not enough testing. That's the opinion of experts. The WHO, the CDC, and other epidemiologists all say that the positivity rate needs to be lower before we open up. There are two ways to get the positivity rate down:
1) Strict quarantine, so that the virus does not spread
2) More testing, so that you have more confidence that you are catching most of the cases
I have not been tested. I go to the grocery store every three weeks and occasionally get takeout. Other than that, I only interact with my family. So I see no reason to be tested. But if experts said that someone like me should be tested then I would try to go and get a test.
And yet...the GA death rate is STILL below the U.S. average which is the same as a common flu. At this point it is the "Nothingburger Lockdown". Locking down for NO GOOD REASON.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5BWs1MBrm0U&feature=emb_titleYMMV wrote:
Fat hurts wrote:
As I've explained, it is not my opinion that there is not enough testing. That's the opinion of experts. The WHO, the CDC, and other epidemiologists all say that the positivity rate needs to be lower before we open up. There are two ways to get the positivity rate down:
1) Strict quarantine, so that the virus does not spread
2) More testing, so that you have more confidence that you are catching most of the cases
I have not been tested. I go to the grocery store every three weeks and occasionally get takeout. Other than that, I only interact with my family. So I see no reason to be tested. But if experts said that someone like me should be tested then I would try to go and get a test.
And yet...the GA death rate is STILL below the U.S. average which is the same as a common flu. At this point it is the "Nothingburger Lockdown". Locking down for NO GOOD REASON.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5BWs1MBrm0U&feature=emb_title
Stop listening to the space aliens. They are just trying to steal your cheese.
Fat hurts wrote:
YMMV wrote:
And yet...the GA death rate is STILL below the U.S. average which is the same as a common flu. At this point it is the "Nothingburger Lockdown". Locking down for NO GOOD REASON.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5BWs1MBrm0U&feature=emb_titleStop listening to the space aliens. They are just trying to steal your cheese.
Don't let facts and data ruin your Pandemic Fantasy.
Fat hurts wrote:
Your link is for deaths. And deaths lag cases by 2 to 10 weeks. So most of the data you are looking at is from transmission that occurred while Georgia was still in lockdown or shortly thereafter. What your link shows is that the lockdown was working!
The graph from the Georgia Department of Health is showing the data with each case assigned to the date that symptoms first occurred. This is far more accurate because it gets you close to the transmission date for each case.
What this clearly shows is that transmission in Georgia is growing exponentially.
You keep using the term "exponentially", but I'm not sure you know what it means. Here's the link:
https://www.dictionary.com/browse/exponentialNow go to any site with Georgia data and see if it qualifies as "growing exponentially". I don't see it.
WWRD wrote:
Fat hurts wrote:
Your link is for deaths. And deaths lag cases by 2 to 10 weeks. So most of the data you are looking at is from transmission that occurred while Georgia was still in lockdown or shortly thereafter. What your link shows is that the lockdown was working!
The graph from the Georgia Department of Health is showing the data with each case assigned to the date that symptoms first occurred. This is far more accurate because it gets you close to the transmission date for each case.
What this clearly shows is that transmission in Georgia is growing exponentially.
You keep using the term "exponentially", but I'm not sure you know what it means. Here's the link:
https://www.dictionary.com/browse/exponentialNow go to any site with Georgia data and see if it qualifies as "growing exponentially". I don't see it.
I know what exponential growth is. That's what the graph is showing. If you go to the Georgia Department of Health web site, you will see a graph that looks like this:
https://ibb.co/cww3qZYAnd to be more precise, I'm talking about the 7-day moving average of cases from May 10 to May 19. It is growing exponentially, which is how epidemics naturally grow when they are out of control.
Beyond May 19, we have incomplete data. In the coming days we will know if the exponential trend continues beyond that.
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