Jakob can run away from most at 2k and above. 1500m not so much. Yes, Wightman will be unknowable after this year's injury, Kerr beat him, and Nuguse will have more confidence and perhaps Nordas or even Laros. Without a pacer, Jakob is vulnerable to someone on their day who can kick with him.
Wightman didn't get dropped, nor did Kerr, so Jakob lost. Jakob may need to change his strategy somewhat to get away - how/when he practices that, or whether his brain trust can figure out a way to get that done, such that he, and he alone, can handle it may be another matter. How far out can he go that doesn't negatively his finish? he tried that in the World 5000 (2019) (but was still a teenager) and couldn't do it from 300m out (died last 100m). If he misjudges his speed from far out would he fall apart again? That is what makes it interesting without a pacer, he doesn't hold all the cards. Guys don't have to run fast necessarily in the heats/semi either since there are no little q's anymore.
Trying to lead most of a fast championship final is not the optimal strategy for winning. In his case, it may be the optimal strategy for getting a medal. He probably doesn't really appreciate that his Tokyo gold was kinda handed to him DL style. It is simply absurd for him to expect others to pace him like Tim did. Kerr learned from Jake - that's the winning strategy.
Kinda strange to say that Kerr learned from Jake, Kerr did the most natural thing. You dont want to be leading unless you have to. Its not a complicated and impressive strategy, its the obvious one...Especially when you don't have the best PB in the field.
I mean this in the nicest way possible, Kerr has no room to talk when it comes to other people having unnecessarily big egos. He knocks Jakob for his tactics, but doesn’t mention that Jakob’s beaten him at every other global championships, be it Doha, Tokyo, Eugene, or even world U20’s. Kinda funny to see that he’s still so upset about being called “the next guy.” I know he’s saying this just to probably get under Jakob’s skin but I think it’s ironic given he still isn’t over Jakob’s statement.
Yeah, but that’s the beauty of his 2023 victory over Jakob. Jakob is the superior (perhaps more talented) athlete, trained as a world class 1500m since he was 14, with world class training partners and coach, who demonstrated repeatedly that he is ‘Time Trialer Numero Uno’ over and over again this past summer. And he got his a$ handed to him by an ‘inferior’ Josh Kerr… a year after having his a$ handed to him by Jake Weightman. And 6 months before that it was Samuel Tefera.
The guys are basically just running train on him now.
It’s embarrassing.
Kerr makes a good point, and the finals you mention here does in one way prove it, in another, maybe not. Jakob said he was sick in two of the three finals he lost. Lets say he was and that either affected him OR make him think that he would've won if it wasn't because of the sickness, making it likely he will repeat the same strategy. The strategy which is obviously an unlikely way to win a final, but perhaps his best chance. If so, its the right strategy. Its all about giving yourself the best chance to get the result you're aiming for, even though it doesn't work, it might still be best.
Also, should be noted this, Kerr isn't really trash talking much. Hes honest about his thoughts and twice compliments Jakob for having a fantastic season.
"And so yeah, I think, you know the 5k is not as popular (of) an event to watch as the 1500. So he wants to win the 1500. The 5k is just almost like an afterthought for him, and I think he’s much better at the 5k than he is the 15, which is crazy to say, because he’s ran (sic) so fast in the 15. But yeah, I think if he wants to try and really compete to win next year, he’s gonna have to, he’s gonna have to change some things up.”
the Truth is that there is a formula right now for winning the world / Olympic championships in the 1500. And it’s simple. Just train for having a big kick off a fast pace. Let Jacob run himself out chasing fast times in the early season and in the first 3/4 of the race and then kick.
I think what Josh said was correct but he might not be the best person to say those things. There’s not many people in the world right now that could trash talk him without getting a lot of hate.
Yes, all you have to do is just train to close in 52.xx in a 3:28-3:29 race. Easy-peasy.
People largely seem to admire Jakob for speaking his mind without pulling punches and being brutally honest to the point of shameless arrogance—it’s the Norwegian way, or the sign of a next level Jordanesque athlete, or whatever. But they have a big problem with Kerr expressing his honest takes on Jakob. In fairness, perhaps they are too personal.
This thread is laced with a common LetsRun trait, where people leap on emotion from feeling athlete A (Kerr) isn’t in the same class as athlete B (Ingebrigtsen), which is reasonable, to acting like athlete A is a complete scrub who had one fluke race they can never repeat, which is unreasonable. Both are great athletes. It won’t be remotely surprising if Kerr runs 3:28 and earns another Olympic medal in 2024.
Of course, despite what happened in Budapest I would pick Jakob over Kerr at 1500 any day. Jakob is in a different league as far as career achievements and apparent potential. And it is probably about time for Kerr to shut up about Jakob and put his head down for Paris.
Actually, I love your arguments as always but when it comes to psychoanalyzing human beings or athletes I believe I'm the GOAT in this area, no offence to anybody here of course!
I read minds and behaviors holistically in space-time, I invest my energy and skills in it full-time and I really enjoy it a lot.
Pardon me but you once replied to my post a few months ago saying that you believe all the world's top distance runners are dirty. You were civil enough however, not to name names, unlike me who will put the name with a red flag right beside it fearlessly if I believe an athlete is dirty!
So may I ask you whether your ability to pick or favor Jakob over Josh in Paris next year is tainted by your belief that both are supposed to be dirty in your view?
I know you dissed me earlier but that didn't stop me from finding your comments here about Josh very agreeable to my eyes and ears! I like how you supported my view that Josh wasn't really trash talking about Jakob AT ALL, not one bit, but your reasons are slightly different from mine.
Namely you felt that Josh was seriously giving Jakob compliments and that's no ideal context to be trash talking, whereas for me I explicitly stated and believed that Josh's surrounding environment consisting of natural scenery and fresh leafy scents in the background and generally quiet, eco-green and rural countryside surroundings atop a mountain plateau (training base), also the lack of anthropogenic RFs and EMFs from especially cellular data and WiFi's from neighbors in such eco-green natural environments nullify all ability to be agitated from which trash talking and punkish behavior/speech results!!
We have different reasons but the same belief lol!!
This post was edited 1 minute after it was posted.
I mean this in the nicest way possible, Kerr has no room to talk when it comes to other people having unnecessarily big egos. He knocks Jakob for his tactics, but doesn’t mention that Jakob’s beaten him at every other global championships, be it Doha, Tokyo, Eugene, or even world U20’s. Kinda funny to see that he’s still so upset about being called “the next guy.” I know he’s saying this just to probably get under Jakob’s skin but I think it’s ironic given he still isn’t over Jakob’s statement.
Yeah, but that’s the beauty of his 2023 victory over Jakob. Jakob is the superior (perhaps more talented) athlete, trained as a world class 1500m since he was 14, with world class training partners and coach, who demonstrated repeatedly that he is ‘Time Trialer Numero Uno’ over and over again this past summer. And he got his a$ handed to him by an ‘inferior’ Josh Kerr… a year after having his a$ handed to him by Jake Weightman. And 6 months before that it was Samuel Tefera.
The guys are basically just running train on him now.
It’s embarrassing.
Okay I know you made a good point of Jakob losing 3 straight world finals in a row since his Olympic victory in Tokyo, I don't deny that.
67% of those times he was reportedly ill and admitted so. 33% of the time he admitted he ran a bad race.
For the folks who claim that Jakob's losses can be wholly attributed to illness but he wasn't ill 33% of the time or at Worlds in Eugene 2022 right?
For the folks who claim that Jakob's losses can be wholly attributed to being an inferior championships racer but he was ill 67% of the time or at 2021 indoor and 2023 outdoor right?
Now you folks need to know that both 67% and 33% aren't small numbers even if one is greater or smaller than the other. 67% is not unequivocally overwhelming stats enough, it's not like it's 95% and above. While 33% isn't unequivocally small and negligible enough as to be an anomaly, it's not like it's 1-5%.
We could use more data sets/points but Jakob is so young that not enough space and time has accumulated for us to be sure that 67% and 33% are very reliable stats. He probably has 10-15 more championship finals to go and at the end of that we might have a much better data set to work with. But for now, these numbers are all we have on top of a good deal of complementary psychoanalyzing skills from me, your RF King!
In this very moment, the numbers 67% and 33% in the manner in which it has been defined and deduced aforementioned speaks to 2 things unequivocally:
1. Jakob losing 33% of his last 3 1500m world finals due to self-confessed 'bad racing' indicates (and he knows so!) that he is at least somewhat vulnerable to race tactics and strategy in championships finals. Jakob knows he is not a sure-win guarantee, he knows he has weaknesses. Josh saying he has weaknesses is just believing what Jakob already believes about himself!
2. Jakob losing 67% of his last 3 1500m world finals due to self-confessed 'illness' indicates (and he knows so!) that he at least might have had a much better chance to win (though not sure-win guarantee!) 2021 indoors and 2023 outdoors if he wasn't ill! This 'much better' chance to win though must be counter-balanced against his 33% chance aforementioned to losing a championships final.
I might be the GOAT in psychoanalyzing which seems subjective (but isn't!), but I have shown that when it comes to showing plain objectivity or relying purely on objective stats, I'm not inferior! I can do both but I always favor the former.
This post was edited 5 minutes after it was posted.
1. Josh says Jakob is surrounded by yes men when Josh literally went to a mental person to help him with his mental health and stuff before world championship. Thats basically having a yes man by your side just different.
2. Jakob was sick on world indoor and outdoor championships. When jake beat jakob he was just better on the day.
3. Also all these men have names that start with J
📲 Subscribe to @olympics: http://oly.ch/Subscribe Norway's Jakob Ingebrigtsen won the men's 1500m final at Tokyo 2020 and set an Olympic record as Kenya's T...
There are only 3 certainties in life: death, taxes, and THOUGHTSLEADER disrespecting Josh Kerr.
Maybe it's disrespect, I think I have a realistic view of him.
As fans, we like guys who a) challenge themselves b) compete often c) perform at a high level often d) don't rest on their laurels.
So I can choose between Jakob who all I can really knock him on is not running World XC, or competing in the 5,000 on the circuit more often. Otherwise, he pushes himself by doubling at Worlds, doing World Indoors, Europeans, and a half-dozen Diamond Leagues. He's able to run at a pretty high level all year long, and doesn't shy away from trying to set records or really fast marks.
Meanwhile, Kerr pretty much puts all his eggs in the outdoor Global Championships basket. And yes last year it worked out great, but he let plenty of meat on the bone as far as what it was for fans. Don't think that it isn't part of the snub for Personality of the Year.
Here are some examples of things that are sub-ideal for fans over the last 2 years: 2022- -Skipping a rematch vs. Olli Hoare (outclassing comments) and a strong field (Nuguse/Mario etc.) at Millrose in the Signature event of the Meet (Wanamaker Mile) to run a 3,000 -For his prime event indoors he targets a soooft field in Birmingham and finishes 5th behind some mediocre guys -Skips European Indoors -Obscure 800/5000 races in the early track season instead of entering DL/Commonweath Tour Gold races -Runs two DL 1500s in the buildup to his credit, but basically downplays his uncompetitive 9th place finish in Oslo -Runs the 800 at British Trials with no pressure instead of the 1500, which with him would be the highlight of the meet -After Worlds, skips DL Final to run a pretty watered-down 5th Ave (yawn) after announcing running DL Final was his goal/pretense for running in Zurich
Now in 2023:
-Not running the loaded and probably World-Record chasing Wanamaker Mile (again!) instead to opt for an obscure indoor 2 mile record (8:03) that is not that close to the 3,000 indoor record (Lieven should be the more competitive race too in all likelihood) -Skipping a home World Indoors because it's not part of "the plan" (Centro seemed to execute his plan fine in 2016) -Already noncommittal on European Champs outdoors
Maybe it makes me disrespectful to point out Kerr's extremely narrow focus in the sport. I certainly have respect for his ability, and you have to say he peaks well. But again I find him critiquing Jakob like someone chirping Tiger Woods in his prime after winning one major.
TL - It seems that you want him to do the sport as YOU see it, not as HE sees it. It is HIS career, not yours. This is the problem I have with too many posters, that you think he owes you something! No he doesn't. You or I might do something different in terms of our career if we were in his position, but we aren't.
I don't put him on a pedestal, nor do I rag on him for NOT doing the things that I would prefer him do - why do you? If you want to manage his racing calendar, text him and tell him that YOU know better than he does, that he owes it to you to run run the races that YOU deem important. Like others you want to diss him for races that he missed, rather than ones he successfully or otherwise ran. I don't think that way, and don't respect people who do, as it comes across as you knowing better than the athlete themselves as to what they want out of the sport.
TL - It seems that you want him to do the sport as YOU see it, not as HE sees it. It is HIS career, not yours. This is the problem I have with too many posters, that you think he owes you something! No he doesn't. You or I might do something different in terms of our career if we were in his position, but we aren't.
I don't put him on a pedestal, nor do I rag on him for NOT doing the things that I would prefer him do - why do you? If you want to manage his racing calendar, text him and tell him that YOU know better than he does, that he owes it to you to run run the races that YOU deem important. Like others you want to diss him for races that he missed, rather than ones he successfully or otherwise ran. I don't think that way, and don't respect people who do, as it comes across as you knowing better than the athlete themselves as to what they want out of the sport.
I see your point, but I think criticizing athletes for how they pick races is fair game. Josh can manage his career however he wants, but fans accordingly can interpret it however they want. Note I didn't go into any personal attacks at all. I don't think he owes me or anyone else anything. But it's OK to want more out of an athlete, and to also scoff at some of the excuses for skipping races/not running great. So Josh has a narrow focus of one race a year (outdoor global medals), most athletes have a wider one (setting maximal PBs, winning national/continental titles/indoor medals/major DL races etc.). Not saying one approach is right or wrong, but I can tell you which will provide more greatness and longevity.
This post was edited 4 minutes after it was posted.
There are only 3 certainties in life: death, taxes, and THOUGHTSLEADER disrespecting Josh Kerr.
Maybe it's disrespect, I think I have a realistic view of him.
As fans, we like guys who a) challenge themselves b) compete often c) perform at a high level often d) don't rest on their laurels.
So I can choose between Jakob who all I can really knock him on is not running World XC, or competing in the 5,000 on the circuit more often. Otherwise, he pushes himself by doubling at Worlds, doing World Indoors, Europeans, and a half-dozen Diamond Leagues. He's able to run at a pretty high level all year long, and doesn't shy away from trying to set records or really fast marks.
Meanwhile, Kerr pretty much puts all his eggs in the outdoor Global Championships basket. And yes last year it worked out great, but he let plenty of meat on the bone as far as what it was for fans. Don't think that it isn't part of the snub for Personality of the Year.
Here are some examples of things that are sub-ideal for fans over the last 2 years: 2022- -Skipping a rematch vs. Olli Hoare (outclassing comments) and a strong field (Nuguse/Mario etc.) at Millrose in the Signature event of the Meet (Wanamaker Mile) to run a 3,000 -For his prime event indoors he targets a soooft field in Birmingham and finishes 5th behind some mediocre guys -Skips European Indoors -Obscure 800/5000 races in the early track season instead of entering DL/Commonweath Tour Gold races -Runs two DL 1500s in the buildup to his credit, but basically downplays his uncompetitive 9th place finish in Oslo -Runs the 800 at British Trials with no pressure instead of the 1500, which with him would be the highlight of the meet -After Worlds, skips DL Final to run a pretty watered-down 5th Ave (yawn) after announcing running DL Final was his goal/pretense for running in Zurich
Now in 2023:
-Not running the loaded and probably World-Record chasing Wanamaker Mile (again!) instead to opt for an obscure indoor 2 mile record (8:03) that is not that close to the 3,000 indoor record (Lieven should be the more competitive race too in all likelihood) -Skipping a home World Indoors because it's not part of "the plan" (Centro seemed to execute his plan fine in 2016) -Already noncommittal on European Champs outdoors
Maybe it makes me disrespectful to point out Kerr's extremely narrow focus in the sport. I certainly have respect for his ability, and you have to say he peaks well. But again I find him critiquing Jakob like someone chirping Tiger Woods in his prime after winning one major.
-Skipping a rematch vs. Olli Hoare (outclassing comments) and a strong field (Nuguse/Mario etc.) at Millrose in the Signature event of the Meet (Wanamaker Mile) to run a 3,000 -For his prime event indoors he targets a soooft field in Birmingham and finishes 5th behind some mediocre guys -Skips European Indoors -Obscure 800/5000 races in the early track season instead of entering DL/Commonweath Tour Gold races -Runs two DL 1500s in the buildup to his credit, but basically downplays his uncompetitive 9th place finish in Oslo
Except for targeting the soft Birmingham field, all these are valid. He has a tactic to be able to peak when it matters, and he keeps true to that. I think thats fair and nothing to critique. Its a bit more boring for us fans, but its unfair to expect other athletes to be able to perform at the top over so long period of times and so many races as Jakob. He is unique in that and especially faster runners (both by training and muscle fibers) like Kerr and Wightman could never do like Jakob. Mostly only long distance and volum based runners are able to keep close to their peak for so long, its rare and extremely impressive. We cant fault other athletes for not sacrificing the World/Olympic champs just to try and emulate Jakob.
-Runs the 800 at British Trials with no pressure instead of the 1500, which with him would be the highlight of the meet -After Worlds, skips DL Final to run a pretty watered-down 5th Ave (yawn) after announcing running DL Final was his goal/pretense for running in Zurich Now in 2023: -Not running the loaded and probably World-Record chasing Wanamaker Mile (again!) instead to opt for an obscure indoor 2 mile record (8:03) that is not that close to the 3,000 indoor record (Lieven should be the more competitive race too in all likelihood) -Skipping a home World Indoors because it's not part of "the plan" (Centro seemed to execute his plan fine in 2016) -Already noncommittal on European Champs outdoors
British Trials: Fair critic. I agree.
Ridiculous to critic him for not running Eugene while not at the same time critiquing Jakob for not running the DL with Kerr and Nuguse. Also again far, as its so far off his peak.
Not running the loaded and probably World-Record chasing Wanamaker Mile (again!) instead to opt for an obscure indoor 2 mile record (8:03) that is not that close to the 3,000 indoor record (Lieven should be the more competitive race too in all likelihood)
You could say that, but he is doing this every winter. Rarely in top shape and often running longer distances, not where he excels but that is his strategy.
-Skipping a home World Indoors because it's not part of "the plan" (Centro seemed to execute his plan fine in 2016) -Already noncommittal on European Champs outdoor
Come on, this is very your obvious dislike for him really shines through. What Centro was able to do doesn't matter at all, why on earth would Kerr gamble in the year of the Olympics? Peaking for World Indoor is in no way smart for most athletes that want to perform at their best during the summer. Are you new to sports?? Haha..
Also, EU champs before the Olympics? Again, either clueless or a hater.
Glad to see Josh is still devastated by Jakob’s “next guy” comment. He knocks Jakob for being paced by Tim in Tokyo and doesn’t realize he’s undercutting his own gold in Budapest where Jakob paced him the entire way.
Looking forward to World Indoors where Josh will have another opportunity to duck Jakob!
Confirmed he's skipping it:
Kerr also revealed that he might have to sacrifice competing at the World Indoor Championships in Glasgow in March to be fully ready for the Olympic final on 6 August – and that he was currently having “very difficult” conversations with his American coach, Danny Mackey. “It’s in Glasgow. I grew up racing there. So I’m banging the drum for it,” said Kerr. “But he’s like: ‘Well, you know, you told me that everything has to be towards this 6 August goal. So why are we getting emotional when, even if you win World Indoor gold, if you don’t make the Olympics, then the year is a failure.’
Kerr also revealed that he might have to sacrifice competing at the World Indoor Championships in Glasgow in March to be fully ready for the Olympic final on 6 August – and that he was currently having “very difficult” conversations with his American coach, Danny Mackey. “It’s in Glasgow. I grew up racing there. So I’m banging the drum for it,” said Kerr. “But he’s like: ‘Well, you know, you told me that everything has to be towards this 6 August goal. So why are we getting emotional when, even if you win World Indoor gold, if you don’t make the Olympics, then the year is a failure.’
actually not decided yet but looks like he'll skip.
“It’s difficult to have an American coach sometimes, but it helps in other ways. Whereas if I had a British coach, I think it would be a situation of, like: ‘Let’s get patriotic. Let’s get down to Glasgow and do a job.’ Which is what I want to do. We’re in those discussions now. But it’s been a very difficult conversation and we haven’t come to any conclusions yet. “Also, I’ve had this Olympics circled for a very, very long time – 12 years, to be exact. I realised that at that point I’d be at the peak of my career and in the 1500m it made sense that this would be the one. I look back sometimes and think: ‘If I could dream up coming into the year as a current world champion, already having won an Olympic bronze, I wouldn’t be in a much better situation than I am now.’ So I’m going in with confidence.”
What about Jakob, is he skipping world indoor? He skipped euro xc last weekend. He has been "out of sight" since the DL-finals and his honeymoon... The rumours says a possible injury, stress injury in the pelvic... And we have that family matter, and the rivalry with Nordaas. A lot is going on around Jakob this winter. I cant see how he mentally can be able to put in the training and the right mindset to lift his performance in 2024.
What about Jakob, is he skipping world indoor? He skipped euro xc last weekend. He has been "out of sight" since the DL-finals and his honeymoon... The rumours says a possible injury, stress injury in the pelvic... And we have that family matter, and the rivalry with Nordaas. A lot is going on around Jakob this winter. I cant see how he mentally can be able to put in the training and the right mindset to lift his performance in 2024.
Jakob is probably skipping the World indoor since we know he (still) only trained alternative one week ago (due to a long time injury this fall) and probably still is (injured). -Source: Henrik Ingebrigtsen. But of course if Jakob all of a sudden becomes injury free we know he loves to race, so there’s still a tiny possibility for participating…
My take on the trashing: It’s difficult to be Josh Kerr in all this -he was the best athlete in the world in the 1500m on the chosen day, but can’t come around the obvious fact: Jakob was sick on the day, and would have beaten him easily if not, and even says so in every post race interviews… So how to cope: He can’t pull a Wightman, who fair and square could say: “ Okay, I know Jakob is the best, but I both peaked perfectly on that day and outsmarted the better runner with my tactics and shifting ability!”
It’s much worse to be Kerr than Wightman, because the latter may very well been the best athlete on the race day in almost all scenarios (and we don’t know if Jakob would have hit the wall himself with another tactic…). And it’s not Kerr’s fault that the favourite was sick -but he is still being “punished” for this fact! So here is what I would have done if I was Kerr:
1. I wouldn’t called my self the worlds best, because that is clearly Jakob.
2. I would been proud of beating the number 1 middle distance athlete in his best year, even if he was somewhat reduced (after all Katir and the others didn’t beat him in the 5000m -still as sick). And I would be proud of beating all the rest stellar athletes in that race, f.ex Nuguse, who later ran a 3.43 mile.
3. I would have kept on working on my endurance and raced much more to become a more consistent athlete, and not a one race hitter (pr year) -looked to Nuguse who “out of the blue” ran this 3.43 (so why shouldn’t Kerr reach his dream of 3.27; and then he would be so near Jakob that he could start borderline dreaming about the same level in the 1500m!).
