is JAKOB INGEBRIGTSEN going to break the mile/3k/5k world records in his career?

I know what you mean. His repeatedly tripping in the Doha 5k was quite odd, I think it’s pretty hard to say those were intentional though. At Monaco he just wanted to beat Cheruiyot to the curve and Tim let him have it. I wouldn’t necessarily call it foul play

Cheruyiot is a 1.43 runner over 800m, and he won't break the wr's for the 1500/mile. Jakob can't get anywhere near 1.43 for 800m. In my view he simply isn't fast enough in terms of his basic speed to threaten the middle distance wr's.

Armstronglivs wrote:

Cheruyiot is a 1.43 runner over 800m, and he won't break the wr's for the 1500/mile. Jakob can't get anywhere near 1.43 for 800m. In my view he simply isn't fast enough in terms of his basic speed to threaten the middle distance wr's.

And he lacks stamina for 5k.

In a fast race his kick is gone like seen in Doha.

Armstronglivs wrote:

Cheruyiot is a 1.43 runner over 800m, and he won't break the wr's for the 1500/mile. Jakob can't get anywhere near 1.43 for 800m. In my view he simply isn't fast enough in terms of his basic speed to threaten the middle distance wr's.

Exactly.

Unless technology finds a food out there that naturally gives you the myostatin deficiency disorder then I don't see how this is possible either.

Bottomline is you can't break a WR unless you're myostatin deficient. And EL gourrouch or however you spell that......... well his WR is a weak WR and will be broken easily soon.

4:00 + 5:45 what is this? A bodycheck on the straight with no pressure from other runners?

Coevett, what's your opinion on this?

matt_london_413 wrote:

Bottomline is you can't break a WR unless you're myostatin deficient. And EL gourrouch or however you spell that......... well his WR is a weak WR and will be broken easily soon.

Geez...I don't think you follow mid-d running much - his name is spelled; El Guerrouj (most people just go with "El G").

El G's WR will never be broken unless they do away with ABP, which isn't going to happen. Lol. The WR was set in a the full-throttle high-octane era and El G ran for a country that was notorious for doping. In the ABP era, there's only been one guy that ever came close and that was Kiprop, a confirmed doper. That being said, he was still .69 seconds short which is an eternity in the 15. You might see a mid to high 3:27s in the next few years, but El G's WR is carved in stone and will last forever.

Jakob:

Lack the kick and the top speed to win at 1500m

Lack the strength to handle fast pace at 5 000m, he is left with no kick at the end.

His best chance is a slow 5 000m final in 13:45 it it happens but the others won't be so dumb to let it happen imo.

Alfred de Musset wrote:

Jakob:

Lack the kick and the top speed to win at 1500m

Lack the strength to handle fast pace at 5 000m, he is left with no kick at the end.

His best chance is a slow 5 000m final in 13:45 it it happens but the others won't be so dumb to let it happen imo.

He will definitely never have the speed for the 1500m. But in the 5k/10k, think about runners like Farah. He can definitely have some success there and cause upsets even without great sprint speed. His combination of speed and strength is unique and dangerous.

Also people here underestimate Cheruiyot. He raced extremely fast times in 1500m front-running solo. El Guerrouj races always had multiple pacers in front of him dictating an enormous pace and allowing him to draft until the final lap. Give Tim pacing like that and he could come close to 3:26.

I think honestly he has more chance at 1500m, not for the record, but because the field is weaker and the races are very different, the race that centrowitz won was a fluke, Jakob can hope for something like this even if he has not the speed. If Cheruyot is missing the field is wide open.

At 5 000 and 10 000 he has no chance for any record, and would need a slow race to win the gold. It can happen but the current field is much stronger. I don't think that the Ethiopians in the 5 000 or Rhonex and Cheptegai in the 10 000 want any part of a slow race.

We have seen in Doha he was completely dead tired in the last lap of the 5 000m, the Ethiopians led a quite fast race and he had no kick left, died to finish on the line.

Alfred de Musset wrote:

Jakob:

Lack the kick and the top speed to win at 1500m

Lack the strength to handle fast pace at 5 000m, he is left with no kick at the end.

His best chance is a slow 5 000m final in 13:45 it it happens but the others won't be so dumb to let it happen imo.

I think he is still young. There is time to develop a strong finish.

Let's not forget he finished a 13:01 last year with a 53 last 400.

Jakob doesn't seem to have the raw speed over the last 100m that is critical in modern distance races, but he can build well over the last 400 and break a lot of athletes that way.

I disagree that his best chances of winning a race are with a slow 13:45 5k.

I see his best chances of winning are by taking out a 1500 hard and keeping the pace honest. Like Rudisha did in the 800. Then Jakob needs to surge at 1000m, not wait for 1100m.

Similar in the 5k, keeping the pace hot around 62s. Then again, he needs to build the last 800m -1000m down to a hard pace, sub 59.

The unfortunate thing for Jakob is Kejelcha and Barega are outstanding athletes, with a better kick and better strength.

ex-runner wrote:

The unfortunate thing for Jakob is Kejelcha and Barega are outstanding athletes, with a better kick and better strength.

Solid points, but the same can be said about Cheruiyot, Lewandowski and Makloufhi in the 1500. All of them got SIGNIFICANTLY better speed and 800m times. And since Lewandowski improved his PR, Jakob wasn't able to run away from him anymore, not even once.

His advantage is that Lewandowski and Makloufhi are getting old. But still, he would never beat Tim and there might be new 1500m stars coming up. Marcus Reilly is already shattering Jakob's age-world records and of course there will also be fast African runners.

It's true that the field in the 1500 isn't nearly as deep as in the longer distances, but still I don't think Jakob got the speed to compete there. In the 5k and 10k, he can still get even faster (he is damn close to sub 13) and then do the long kick 600-800m out to decide it before the home straight. Probably his best shot.

matt_london_413 wrote:

Daniels. wrote:

Im guessing yes....unless injury.

I'm going to have to say no. And i'm trying to be as nice as possible. He's not myostatin deficient.

You can only break a WR if you're myostatin deficient.

But overall a really good effort from him so far. A for effort.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1698719/

I really enjoyed the read even though I'm no geneticist. The conclusions you've drawn from this study, though, are wrong, and I know the authors of this study and just about every exercise physiologist on the planet would agree.

Your assumption that myostatin deficiency helps with endurance sport is simply wrong. It's the opposite. Myostatin deficiency upregulates hypertrophy of type IIb muscle fibers, which are more glycolytic and less fatigue-resistant. The authors of THIS study show remarkable differences between training groups:

"Because glycolytic muscle is more susceptible to fatigue, we analyzed overall running exercise capacity in Mstn+/+ and Mstn−/− mice. We performed progressive endurance capacity run testing on non-trained mice by increasing treadmill running speed and grade until exhaustion. Mstn−/− mice ran for 28% less total time and 40% shorter distance, which resulted in a 38% lower endurance run capacity compared to Mstn+/+ mice as calculated by Work performed."

In conclusion, yes, myostatin deficiency upregulates muscle growth, but of type IIb muscle fibers, not type IIa or type I. Myostatin deficiency absolutely does NOT enhance endurance performance -- it diminishes it.

Even if there were no evidence of this, we have no knowledge of WR holders' relative myostatin deficiencies or lack thereof. Your argument was made entirely of uninformed ignorance and assumption.

The study you linked, however, does raise some questions about whether those of sub-Saharan African descent may be more likely to be high performers of anaerobic activities, although the authors of the study you linked report that no conclusive associations in this regard have been found (as of 2006, the year the study was published):

"Laboratory studies that measured human adult muscle response after short-term physical training failed to detect associations between increased muscle mass and several common amino acid polymorphisms. However, the potential phenotypic effect on preadult muscle development remains unknown. Also, natural selection may act on fitness differences that are subtle and not easily detected in laboratory settings."

Alfred de Musset wrote:

Jakob:

Lack the kick and the top speed to win at 1500m

Lack the strength to handle fast pace at 5 000m, he is left with no kick at the end.

His best chance is a slow 5 000m final in 13:45 it it happens but the others won't be so dumb to let it happen imo.

I think he is still young. There is time to develop a strong finish.

Let's not forget he finished a 13:01 last year with a 53 last 400.

Jakob doesn't seem to have the raw speed over the last 100m that is critical in modern distance races, but he can build well over the last 400 and break a lot of athletes that way.

I disagree that his best chances of winning a race are with a slow 13:45 5k.

I see his best chances of winning are by taking out a 1500 hard and keeping the pace honest. Like Rudisha did in the 800. Then Jakob needs to surge at 1000m, not wait for 1100m.

Similar in the 5k, keeping the pace hot around 62s. Then again, he needs to build the last 800m -1000m down to a hard pace, sub 59.

The unfortunate thing for Jakob is Kejelcha and Barega are outstanding athletes, with a better kick and better strength.

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I agree that Jakob is still young (only a big boy) and I am sure that he will develope further in all aspects of the sport at least until he is in his mid twenties.

I am surprised that so many people here seem to consider him a "finished product". As stated before on these pages middle distance runners normally peak in their mid to late twenties.

Some East Africans 1500m runners have peaked around 20 and some very few before.

When it comes to runners of European origin I have only been able to find 2 who peaked around 20 : Jim Ryun (at 19) and Ryan Gregson, Australia (at 20). All other former and current toprunners of European origin have peaked as the earliest at 23. And many in their late twenties or even later (Nick Willis and Marcin Lewandowski).

So Jakob will without doubt be both faster and get more endurance (even though his aerobic capacity reportedly was already world class when 17). But don´t make a final evaluation of him before he is able to "grow a decent beard".

And don´t evaluate him out from a single race as the WC 5000m final 2019. I don´t think that Jakob was at his very best in Doha neither on the 5000m nor the 1500m. He would, however, possibly had got the bronze if he had waited 150m to start his finish. And that would not have been so bad for a guy just turned 19.

I heard some quote, maybe it was Paul Chelimo, saying that now that Farah is gone there’s gonna be much less tactical racing in championships and DL races. I’m not taking it as gospel but the 5k/10k this year at worlds we’re much quicker than they have been recently. And we can’t forget that the fastest non African over 5k it still Dieter Baumann. I think it would be reasonable to say that he might run 12:54, but I think it would also be reasonable to say a 12:54 is not going to win you a gold at olys. The Ethiopians are ridiculously strong right now with Barega, Gebriwhet, Bekele, Kjelcha. I could even see Girma and Wale race a couple 5k, tho idk if they would be able to compete with the aforementioned. Kenya seemed pretty weak in the 5k this year, but they shouldn’t be counted out and they always have a whole bunch of guys that could compete for a medal. Paul Chelimo, McSweyn, Butchart, and J. Knight are all overlooked in my opinion. Hell, I could see Centrowitz trying to get into the 5k in 2024.

As far as world records, it’s hard to say that Jakob will and guys like Kjelcha and barega won’t. Kjelcha might be the most well rounded distance runner out there right now and I’d say he has the best shot

The ethiopian field is so strobg and stacked you managed to forget Edris the two time world champ who has been able to win Doha despite being battling injuriy for a long time.

I didn’t include Edris because I always think he’s a lot older than he really is (not nefariously he just doesn’t look like he’s mid twenties) and he was toward the end of his prime. He’s also been very inconsistent. His two world championship wins have been very out of the blue, if his Injuries are limiting him until the 2021 Olympics, he might not be able to win a gold. That being said, if he’s been able to overcome his Achilles issue, I would definitely put him up with the favorites

This thread is about Jakob breaking WR´s.

I stated that I think Jakob can break the CURRENT WR´s.

I agree that there are other contenders:

Cheptegei, Kejelcha and Kipruto on the 10000m

Cheptegei, Kejelcha, Barega, Gebhriwet and (young) Bekele on the 5000m

Cheptegei, Kejelcha and Barega on the 3000m.

After this season it will probably be easier to point out the top contenders.

I say no. The Ingebrigstens are milers physiologically: their body morphology and times indicate this. Sure, as we all know and have seen, strength-based milers can hop in a fast 5k race and be dragged to 13-flat.

Jakob has recently stated that his best distance right now is the 5000m and in the longer term the HM.

I trust that Jakob - who knows the times from the different distances they run in training - better than you can judge where he is best and where his best potential lie. And remember he is still under development so it is NOT a static picture.

The brothers (at least Jakob and Filip) have reportedly run faster than ever last year both in treshold repetitions and in long recovery runs (under unchanged lactate numbers) . And even faster this year as far as I understand.

Their training has for more than 10 years been more suited for long distance than middle distance.