Pre Classic 2019 (6/30) - official discussion thread

dunes runner wrote:

VIPAM wrote:

If Ayana,is truly FIT and fresh she can beat any female almost 100% of the time from 3000m to 10000m.

I agree with this except remove the almost.

You think that at fit Ayana would run faster than 8:16? No way. She is a pacer. She can run 68s and 69s forever but when she drops down to the 66s and 67s she tires quickly. She is very talented at 5000m and 10000 when fully fit, but she is not ever a “100% of the time” winner at 3000m. She has lost many times at 5000m let alone 3000m due to her lack of speed. Unless you conveniently move the goal post and say that every time she has lost she was not at full fitness, she is beatable!

To name a few:

Lost Paris 5k 2015 (she ran 14:14 like a few weeks earlier!)

Lost Rio 5k 2016 (Cheruiyot beat her cuz Ayana couldn’t sustain her pace)

Lost London 5k 2017 (was she not in top form here?)

dunes runner wrote:

VIPAM wrote:

If Ayana,is truly FIT and fresh she can beat any female almost 100% of the time from 3000m to 10000m.

I agree with this except remove the almost.

Although I believe a fully fit and primed Ayana would be the most consistent exponent of top times within this field, there is no way she will rock up in the same rich vein of form as the 2016 D/L where she was basically head and shoulders above all in 3,5 &10k events (Olympic 5000m final notwithstanding)

Ayanas management told me she is an absolute beast in training, she trains three times a day and is the hardest working, most focussed and single minded trainer they have witnessed. - with this in mind however, let’s remember she has been out of competitive running and training completely for 18 months. Her comeback training hasn’t simply been regaining fitness and speed, she has had to incorporate attempts to alter her form to alleviate strain on her knees, and as anyone who runs knows, this is very difficult.

So no I don’t expect fireworks from her, more than likely she will be using this as a mental stake in the ground in the build up for worlds, I’ll say mid pack or thereabouts.

Winning time will be mid or late 8.20s

Name a few = 3 only times?

I want to see Ayana be paced by men. I think she could go mid to low 28 minutes for 10000m.

I think it is about as likely to see another 2015/16 style times of Ayana as Genzebe running another 3:50. Not gonna happen, pick your favorite reason for why not.

Jo72 wrote:

I think it is about as likely to see another 2015/16 style times of Ayana as Genzebe running another 3:50. Not gonna happen, pick your favorite reason for why not.

Interestingly in the media, - and social media furore and speculation after Ayanas demolition of the 10000m field in the London WC, her management submitted documentation to the media which evidenced Ayana had been tested out of competition twice per month for the preceding two years within Ethiopia.

Of course this doesn’t support the controversial narrative of doping as pursued by the press, so it’s no surprise there was no reporting of it. - So much for fairness and balance huh?

One doesn't need a narrative. Some things are simply too outlandish not to cause suspicion. Now we have the knee problem, so a good reason for never getting close to such times and splits. Anyway, it will be very easy to prove me wrong, because she will run frequently 29:20 or the like. After all it is a simple and testable prediction that Genzebe will never again run close to 3:50 or Ayana 29:20 or faster.

pace goals:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D-QVzAYW4AEHu2W.jpg:large

Do we expect the fields to go with the pace? I have doubts in the men's races and also in the steeple...

Jo72 wrote:

pace goals:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D-QVzAYW4AEHu2W.jpg:large

Do we expect the fields to go with the pace? I have doubts in the men's races and also in the steeple...

Yep, nobody is running 8.02 for 3218 metres. Last man to get close was Mo winning Birmingham by almost 15 sec over Zane in 2014. Maybe 8.12 or 8.15.

CDA

Apparently you are reaching...fit and fresh means not doubling 2 of 3 of your examples she had won 10000m in a WR and the 2017 running her last 5000m in 14:25. So in 2016 and 2017 she was doubling after DESTROYING her opposition including Vivian in the 10000m twice.

With the paces for the men’s two mile I’m not expecting much. I doubt they’ll go with the rabbits. I doubt the second rabbit can even hold pace for that long.

Barega even finds the pacing slow. Lesson learnt from DL in Oslo is that 60s/lap is fine for 3k-races.

Semiler wrote:

Barega even finds the pacing slow. Lesson learnt from DL in Oslo is that 60s/lap is fine for 3k-races.

Cheptegei took over the rabbit there before 1700 metres when they were already six seconds outside the pace you call fine. He and barega crushed the remainder with pb’s but still outside 7.30. Nobody is running 8.02 tonight, there is no Daniel Komen in this field.

Aussiestatman wrote:

Aussiestatman wrote:

The two mile is not a DL race but pits 7 or 8 of the top distance athletes against each other and the clock. You would think like Rome 5000, it will be barega, Gebrhiwet, balew, hadis, and Ahmed in that order. Chelimo and gator both need to improve on Shanghai and cheptegei could be in the mix.

Gebrhiwet and Hadis are not on the start list [jacob kiplimo as well]. so for me its: Barega, balew, and ahmed. cheptegei and kwemoi could surprise?

Aussie McSweyn is the other chance

Aussiestatman wrote:

Semiler wrote:

Barega even finds the pacing slow. Lesson learnt from DL in Oslo is that 60s/lap is fine for 3k-races.

Cheptegei took over the rabbit there before 1700 metres when they were already six seconds outside the pace you call fine. He and barega crushed the remainder with pb’s but still outside 7.30. Nobody is running 8.02 tonight, there is no Daniel Komen in this field.

Yes, lesson learnt from Oslo was that the pacing was too slow, and with decent pacing it would likely go sub 7:30. Barega is highly capable of running 60s/lap in a 3k. It's like discussing if Sha'carri Richardson is capable of running 10.74 after winning 10.75 arms up last 10m. It makes no sense.

For 5000m, it will come down to Obiri or Dibaba, both are in excellent form right now, with Obiri being basically unbeatable at 3000m

Ayana is only good at 10000m. That might just be her best event. Her half marathon was only 67 min, and compare that to hassan's debut of 65 mins and nearly breaking the WR, it's not even close. And Ayana has never been a kicker, so maybe she is just working on speed at the moment. She is too quiet for me from a competition stand point, so it's really hard to believe that she is clean. Runners get tested a lot when they are constantly competing. She just routinely pops up her and there, and then shows up for the championships. All the other runners compete indoors and outdoors. And don't give me that she has been injured, because she has been like this since 2016.

Hassan is always the bridesmaid on the track. She does all the hard and dirty work, but tires out down the stretch because she did all the work. Will she break through this time? She can hang with anyone. However, I think her platform where she is going to dominate is the marathon level.

Ayana might take it out early because that is her only chance.

obiri and dibaba will run even as usual, and leave it to a sprint in the last 300m like they always do against each other.

Hassan will stay in the back, and then make a move in the last 2 laps or so.....

Obiri or dibaba will win.

Semiler wrote:

Aussiestatman wrote:

Cheptegei took over the rabbit there before 1700 metres when they were already six seconds outside the pace you call fine. He and barega crushed the remainder with pb’s but still outside 7.30. Nobody is running 8.02 tonight, there is no Daniel Komen in this field.

Yes, lesson learnt from Oslo was that the pacing was too slow, and with decent pacing it would likely go sub 7:30. Barega is highly capable of running 60s/lap in a 3k. It's like discussing if Sha'carri Richardson is capable of running 10.74 after winning 10.75 arms up last 10m. It makes no sense.

There is no way Barega or Cheptegei get within 30 seconds of their PB's they ran in Oslo for the shorter distance by lapping faster the first four laps. no one runs under 8.10 here

Semiler wrote:

Aussiestatman wrote:

Cheptegei took over the rabbit there before 1700 metres when they were already six seconds outside the pace you call fine. He and barega crushed the remainder with pb’s but still outside 7.30. Nobody is running 8.02 tonight, there is no Daniel Komen in this field.

Yes, lesson learnt from Oslo was that the pacing was too slow, and with decent pacing it would likely go sub 7:30. Barega is highly capable of running 60s/lap in a 3k. It's like discussing if Sha'carri Richardson is capable of running 10.74 after winning 10.75 arms up last 10m. It makes no sense.

He’s likely capable of it, but he doesn’t push the pace. There “is no Daniel Komen” i.e. no one willing AND capable of pushing the pace. Kejelcha sometimes occupies that role, but not Barega.

And pushing the pace does require more work, so it’s not a foregone conclusion that Barega could win a fast race or run a record if he were required to do all of the pushing.

Oh yeah, the queen of 1500m is back. How will she fare?

I wanted dibaba to run 1500m at this meet. She has been on a tear at 1500m. I think Muir has the best shape right now, so I could see her winning. It's going to take some time for Kipyegon to get her form back, or maybe she is already in great shape.

we shall see.

I'll go with Muir just because of the form that she is in, and she has been racing for awhile.