Based on today, what chance does Rupp have in the Rio Marathon?

sovietvest wrote:

X-perience wrote:

You cannot compare an older, experienced, marathoner like Lopes to Rupp. Maybe 2024 Olympics?

Lopes was not experienced. He failed to finish in NY (I think in 1982) and ran (an admittedly excellent) 2:08 in Rotterdam, 1983. I don't think he had attempted any others.

1984 is a great example of how unpredictable the Olympic Marathon is and why a meticulously prepared runner with decent 10,000m speed has a great chance in an Olympic Marathon. Aside from Lopes (who brought the 10,000 speed, who would have given Treacy and Spedding a chance against Salazar, De Castella, Ikangaa, Dixon and Seko? Experience didn't have much to do with that race.

I give Rupp 50% chance of top 5; 25% chance top 3.

You mean two-time world cross country champion John Treacy? I liked his chances back then.

Lopes was a top XC runner. Three World Golds.

World Cross Country Championships

Gold medal – 1976 Chepstow

Gold medal – 1984 New York

Gold medal – 1985 Lisbon

In his last major competitive race, Lopes ran a 2:07:12 world record in the marathon at age 38.

Lopes-ing Along wrote:

Lopes was a top XC runner. Three World Golds.

World Cross Country Championships

Gold medal – 1976 Chepstow

Gold medal – 1984 New York

Gold medal – 1985 Lisbon

Galen Rupp has a 10k Olympic Silver medal.

His coach Alberto Salazar was 15th in 2:14:19 when Carlos Lopes won the 1984 LA Olympic marathon Gold medal in a new Olympic record of 2:09:21.

Are we done with this Kumbaya circle? Yes, Lopes is LOPES. The point remains, however, that with the Olympic marathon like 12 weeks away, I believe Rupp is sitting right about where Lopes was before he actually became LOPES.

And those other guys, Salazar, Seko, DeCastella, Dixon, Nijboer among many more, may have backgrounds leading some to think they'll win this one, but they might not be ready for what Rupp is going to do. Which, most likely, is go with Biwwot when nobody else does.

Ain't no rabbits in this one, guys. The course isn't pancake flat, either. Get ready, your world is about to change.

I don't think Rupp has any realistic chance in the Rio Marathon for the simple fact that I think he will be focused on the 10000M. Or more to the point, his training in the months leading up to Rio will be focused on the track.

Former high school runner wrote:

Are we done with this Kumbaya circle? Yes, Lopes is LOPES. The point remains, however, that with the Olympic marathon like 12 weeks away, I believe Rupp is sitting right about where Lopes was before he actually became LOPES.

Ummm, Rupp Fanboy, no. Rupp is not Lopes and doesn't have Lopes' resume BEFORE Lopes won the Olympic marathon; not even close. Rupp needs to build for six-more years to even be considered where Lopes was before winning Gold, adding to his already-pocketed World Gold in XC.

ryan foreman wrote:

I don't think Rupp has any realistic chance in the Rio Marathon for the simple fact that I think he will be focused on the 10000M. Or more to the point, his training in the months leading up to Rio will be focused on the track.

For once, I agree with top Rupp Fan ryan foreman. The 10k is primary. The marathon is come what may. The 5k is not in the plans.

Alberto Salazar was Mary Decker Slaney's coach in 1996 when she was banned for testing positive for elevated testosterone levels above the 6:1 T/E ratio at the time, which was later lowered to the present 4:1 ratio.Galen Rupp also had a note in some records that referred to testosterone medication.Alberto Salazar also has admitted that he rubbed testosterone gel on his son and had blood tests done to see if "possible sabotage" could lead to elevated testosterone levels on a blood test.That would also be administering a controlled prescription drug to another person without a valid prescription for that controlled drug by that person.Last time I checked, Alberto Salazar does not have a license to practice medicine or administer controlled prescription drugs to other people, including his son. I think that would also be a violation of various federal laws.The CEO of USADA is Travis Tygart. He is the guy who was the head lawyer in the BALCO case and also got Lance Armstrong even with death threats against him. He is now investigating Alberto Salazar.Your world may be about to change as well.

Former high school runner wrote:

Are we done with this Kumbaya circle? Yes, Lopes is LOPES. The point remains, however, that with the Olympic marathon like 12 weeks away, I believe Rupp is sitting right about where Lopes was before he actually became LOPES.

And those other guys, Salazar, Seko, DeCastella, Dixon, Nijboer among many more, may have backgrounds leading some to think they'll win this one, but they might not be ready for what Rupp is going to do. Which, most likely, is go with Biwwot when nobody else does.

Ain't no rabbits in this one, guys. The course isn't pancake flat, either. Get ready, your world is about to change.

Go for it in your 20s wrote:

Sure, you might say that the competition is better now, but at least in Olympic marathons, it isn't.

You're delusional.

I think Rupp plans to run the 5K at the trials. He may have no chance at medaling in that event, but I call that being in his plans.

Lopes Greater then Rupp wrote:

ryan foreman wrote:

I don't think Rupp has any realistic chance in the Rio Marathon for the simple fact that I think he will be focused on the 10000M. Or more to the point, his training in the months leading up to Rio will be focused on the track.

For once, I agree with top Rupp Fan ryan foreman. The 10k is primary. The marathon is come what may. The 5k is not in the plans.

I hope he focuses on the marathon, aiming for top 5k shape would ruin it.

What chance to medal? Naturally he'll need a healthy build-up and a good day. Assuming those, it's 50/50 medal. Here's why:

1. There's no Japanese or European runner he couldn't beat. And those new guys from the Himalayas are good but not that good yet.

2. Likely 3 of the 6 Kenyans/Ethiopians will blow as usual in championship marathons. So he'll need to beat one of the remaining three.

3. Beating one of Kipchoge, Biwott, Bekele would be a tall order, but likely one of them won't make it there 100% and ends up being one of the 3 fallen. Then if it's Lemi still standing, 33% for Rupp beating him. 67% if it's someone else.

Why do you assume others will have running issue but not Rupp? Is he taking something that prevents injury as well as poor performances?

Meb FTW wrote:

I hope he focuses on the marathon, aiming for top 5k shape would ruin it.

What chance to medal? Naturally he'll need a healthy build-up and a good day. Assuming those, it's 50/50 medal. Here's why:

1. There's no Japanese or European runner he couldn't beat. And those new guys from the Himalayas are good but not that good yet.

2. Likely 3 of the 6 Kenyans/Ethiopians will blow as usual in championship marathons. So he'll need to beat one of the remaining three.

3. Beating one of Kipchoge, Biwott, Bekele would be a tall order, but likely one of them won't make it there 100% and ends up being one of the 3 fallen. Then if it's Lemi still standing, 33% for Rupp beating him. 67% if it's someone else.

Why are you folks still floundering here? I already gave the correct answer.

"Rupp will definitely medal. Unlikely to get gold."

Do you need more precision? OK, here it is.

P(Medal) = 1.00

P(Gold) = 0.05

FAX R Us wrote:

Why are you folks still floundering here? I already gave the correct answer.

"Rupp will definitely medal. Unlikely to get gold."

Do you need more precision? OK, here it is.

P(Medal) = 1.00

P(Gold) = 0.05

0/10 is your score

0/10 chance Rupp "wins" a medal.

Sad that losing first place is considering "winning" Silver or Bronze in the Olympics. Losing is losing.

ToughStrong Rupp wrote:

FAX R Us wrote:

Why are you folks still floundering here? I already gave the correct answer.

"Rupp will definitely medal. Unlikely to get gold."

Do you need more precision? OK, here it is.

P(Medal) = 1.00

P(Gold) = 0.05

0/10 is your score

0/10 chance Rupp "wins" a medal.

Sad that losing first place is considering "winning" Silver or Bronze in the Olympics. Losing is losing.

You are WRONG.

But thank you for playing.

FAX R Us wrote:

You are WRONG.

But thank you for playing.

You LOST. Accept YOUR DEFEAT.

Thank you for losing.

FAX R Us wrote:

ToughStrong Rupp wrote:

0/10 is your score

0/10 chance Rupp "wins" a medal.

Sad that losing first place is considering "winning" Silver or Bronze in the Olympics. Losing is losing.

You are WRONG.

But thank you for playing.