I'm a little late to this thread but I find it interesting that the OP pits peak Jakob (now) vs. Bekele in 2008. Why not Jakob vs 2004 peak Bekele when he ran 12:37?
What's the next thread going to be, age 15 Jakob, versus Bekele when he turns 43?
Honestly, I think we're comparing the wrong people. Prime Bekele wasn't really that good at controlling a race. Look at how El G controlled the 5k Oly Final. I dunno what Bekele was thinking by letting it come down to the last 200. Of course El G was going to win that kind of finish. Prime Haile Geb was the best. His times are STILL comparable to today's best, and his tactics, ability to absolutely control a race, and win when it really mattered are unparalleled in today's runners.
This is why world records are relevant. You can debate hypotheticals all you want but who ran the fastest is who ran the fastest. Makes me wonder why Jakob, Kipling etc don’t set up wr attempts more.
I was and am a big bekele fan and I loved the many ways he could win a race, e.g. a grinding, sub-26:50 10k duel with Tadese in 2009 followed by outsprinting Lagat in a relatively slow 5k.
when Mo Farrah started dominating, I lost a lot of interest in track — in part because I was suspicious of his meteoritic mid-career rise and in part because all races with him were basically the same. So I really want to believe that price Bekele could take all comers — Jakob, Mo, whoever. but the fact is, Mo and Jakob have a combo of mid-distance and long-distance chops that is really hard to contend with.
People are really underrating Mo’s closing 2:19 1k finish if they think Bekele could have definitely beaten that. We’ll never know but what we see is that Mo optimized for winning championship races like no one ever before. Bekele complained about this in 2012 if I recall — said maybe he’d win too if he used the same gimmicks. But like, my man, the point running is to cross the finish line first — Anything permitted that helps you do that, you should do. (Anyone else remember that Times article about Bekele’s sub-2 efforts that suggested he was really resistant to trying new things? )
And with Jakob, we never really saw prime Bekele go head-to-head with a 3:27/12:4x runner, partly because there have only been a handful of people that fit in all of history. so I’d like to believe Bekele could crush them all. But I’m just not seeing it.
Farah can't be put at the same level as Jakob since Jakob is better on both side.
We have never seen Jakob race againt the greatest 5k/10k runner of all time either
Farah 2:19 is overrated, not underrated, by people not taking into account that it was the slowest championship race ever (14.25 pace for 4km). Bekele had an at least as good as a kick as Farah's. Look at what prime El Gerrouj had to do to beat him by 0,2 sec in a quite SLOW race. That was a 52.9 last lap ( from Kipchoge to Hicham so 52.5 for hicham 52.9 for Bekele) while kicking at 200-250m to go only. Look also how close Kipchoge is despite the fact he has a 3:33PB (and he beat them both in 2003, 53 last lap in 12:52 race). Not only 1500speed matters. Kipchoge wasn't running the 1500 or 10 000 before the 5k though.
5000 m Homme - Finale - 28 Août 20041 MARHicham El Guerrouj (MAR) 13'14''392 ETHKenenisa Bekele (ETH) 13'14''593 KENEliud Kipchoge (KEN) 13'15''104 ETHGebreg...
And that was a 22yo Bekele, who was already at his prime physical abilities but not tacticalIy. In a 12:50 race or faster, Bekele could OUTKICKED EL GERROUJ (who is a better version of Farah, and I know El Gerrouj outckicked Bekele in a 12:52 race in 2003 but Bekele was'nt in his prime yet back then) because even if El Gerrouj can follow, it's an all out pace or 95% for him and that's hurt his kick a lot while Bekele has some margin and almost as good natural speed. And Bekele could solo run 12:40-45 with old spikes.
Farah "optimized" strategy was to outkick 3:32/26:50-27:00 guys being a 3:28/26:40guy (granted we worked hard for being a 3:28 guy). Nothing genius there. According to Canova, Bekele was a 3:28/sub 26:00 guy potential IN OLD SPIKES that never trained for the 10K specifically nor tried hard because he didn't need to to win everything and break the WR. Even though i'm not as optimistic as Canova, Bekele had a huge strengh margin on anybody, even Jakob.
If you factor everything in an hypotetical scenario where they are all at their prime nowadays and race perfect time trials with all the tech : (I give 0,5sec improvment for 1500, 5sec for 5k, 10s for 10k for the shoes. They all get an extra bonus for distances where they never try an all out effort or were poorly paced, accordingly to what they've shown overall.
Bekele : 3:28?/12:30/26:00
Jakob : 3:27/12:35/26:20?
El Gerrouj : 3.25/12:35-40/26:40?
Farah : 3:28/12:40/26:30
You can argue the numbers but I think it's realistic.
Even in a slow race, nobody is guaranteed to outkick Bekele. Jakob and El Gerrouj are favorite but not like 90/10, more like 70/30. They could sit, kick and loose sometimes.
Now in a fast race, which Bekele would have set everytime after 2004 :
If Aregawi can run a progressive 12:40 leading a lot, Bekele could run a 7:25 last 3k. That would drop Farah and maybe El Gerrouj (or at least kill his kick). Jakob would follow but he would still be like 60/40 vs Jakob because he is the best overall athlete for the 5k (and even more so for the 10k).
-Just look at the look of pain on Kipchoge's face that last 100m.
-It makes you wonder what El G could have done in the marathon if he'd stayed in the game as long as Kipchoge and Bekele did. World record? Sub 2:01 or sub 2:00hr in an actual race?
Whatever you consider prime Bekele and prime Jakob to be, who wins in a championship 5k? I'm taking Jakob for the same reason I'm taking a prime Farah over Bekele. Bekele isn't fit enough to drop them at a fast pace, and he's not fast enough to drop them in a kick.
Peak Bekele would tempo a 12:40 and Farah would only be rounding the last turn when Bekele crossed the line. 12:37 in 2004 might be sub 12:30 with wavelight pacing and the shoes of today.
Whatever you consider prime Bekele and prime Jakob to be, who wins in a championship 5k? I'm taking Jakob for the same reason I'm taking a prime Farah over Bekele. Bekele isn't fit enough to drop them at a fast pace, and he's not fast enough to drop them in a kick.
I was and am a big bekele fan and I loved the many ways he could win a race, e.g. a grinding, sub-26:50 10k duel with Tadese in 2009 followed by outsprinting Lagat in a relatively slow 5k.
when Mo Farrah started dominating, I lost a lot of interest in track — in part because I was suspicious of his meteoritic mid-career rise and in part because all races with him were basically the same. So I really want to believe that price Bekele could take all comers — Jakob, Mo, whoever. but the fact is, Mo and Jakob have a combo of mid-distance and long-distance chops that is really hard to contend with.
People are really underrating Mo’s closing 2:19 1k finish if they think Bekele could have definitely beaten that. We’ll never know but what we see is that Mo optimized for winning championship races like no one ever before. Bekele complained about this in 2012 if I recall — said maybe he’d win too if he used the same gimmicks. But like, my man, the point running is to cross the finish line first — Anything permitted that helps you do that, you should do. (Anyone else remember that Times article about Bekele’s sub-2 efforts that suggested he was really resistant to trying new things? )
And with Jakob, we never really saw prime Bekele go head-to-head with a 3:27/12:4x runner, partly because there have only been a handful of people that fit in all of history. so I’d like to believe Bekele could crush them all. But I’m just not seeing it.
Who was in "the handful of people" who could run 3:27/ 12:4x. I think that hand is empty!
5 persons have run sub 3:28 in the 1500m apart from Jakob. Only Lagat and El-G was close to a 12:50 in the 5000m. And both beat Bekele in the 5000m. El-G on the biggest scene: The OG. And Jakob is probably quite superior to both El-G and Lagat in the 5000m (judging from his 2 mile WB he can possibly run well under 12:40.)
Kiprop, Morceli and Kiplagat all ran rather slowly in the 5000m.
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But this little fact finding exercise just strenghten just your argument.
-Just look at the look of pain on Kipchoge's face that last 100m.
-It makes you wonder what El G could have done in the marathon if he'd stayed in the game as long as Kipchoge and Bekele did. World record? Sub 2:01 or sub 2:00hr in an actual race?
Nah. El Gerrouj was more of a fast twich guy. The 5000 was his limit at world class level.
Honestly, I think we're comparing the wrong people. Prime Bekele wasn't really that good at controlling a race. Look at how El G controlled the 5k Oly Final. I dunno what Bekele was thinking by letting it come down to the last 200. Of course El G was going to win that kind of finish. Prime Haile Geb was the best. His times are STILL comparable to today's best, and his tactics, ability to absolutely control a race, and win when it really mattered are unparalleled in today's runners.
I still think bekele is superior to Haile but what always baffles me is that that man had to run through 10,000m rounds.
If Jakob convincingly wins the 5k at worlds this year against the current crop of 12:40-12:42 guys, I would consider him having a good shot against peak Bekele. But I'd only give Jakob a 60-65% chance of winning the worlds 5k, let alone beating Bekele in his prime.
You really have to keep the shoes in mind when comparing times/performances to mid-00s Bekele - the 5k performances this year are a good illustration of that. Peak Bekele in 2023 is probably running 12:32 and 26:00.
We also don't know what Jakob's peak in the 5k is going to look like.
If Jakob convincingly wins the 5k at worlds this year against the current crop of 12:40-12:42 guys, I would consider him having a good shot against peak Bekele. But I'd only give Jakob a 60-65% chance of winning the worlds 5k, let alone beating Bekele in his prime.
You really have to keep the shoes in mind when comparing times/performances to mid-00s Bekele - the 5k performances this year are a good illustration of that. Peak Bekele in 2023 is probably running 12:32 and 26:00.
We also don't know what Jakob's peak in the 5k is going to look like.
We need to see how Jakob does when he is in a 12:40 race. Everyone looks good right up until they hit their limit. If Jakob hits the bell at 11:40 to see if can close in 55 or just hangs on. And it is all guessing games about how fast people can run 1k after a 4k jog. They all have fast times but that first 4k and weather make direct comparisons hard.
This is why world records are relevant. You can debate hypotheticals all you want but who ran the fastest is who ran the fastest. Makes me wonder why Jakob, Kipling etc don’t set up wr attempts more.
Probably because they know that only a few very foolish individuals think that whoever holds the faster time is/was the better runner.
Although you are clearly being ignorant purposely for reference. For those thinking Jakob isn't relative to Bekele and shouldn't be compared due to age
Bekele ran 12:37 when and had 8 golds(including xc) when he was about Jakob's age now.
100m, Mile, and Marathon are the universally known prestigious events. Nobody at the global level cares for 5K/10K. Might as well start telling the gold medalist for the 20 km Racewalk.
