You say that but Daniel Komen could not run 3:26 or faster from what we know so I don’t think we can assume that Jakob can.
Exactly. Komen's form went metronomic bounce, bounce, bounce forever. Jakob's form goes stride, stride, stride forever. Jakob can drop people with his "kick" but not overall a fast guy. Efficiency maniac.
3:27's might happen but most likely way is Katir. Why? Katir is the hungriest. Most hate. Most to prove. Sick of you all calling him a doper and not Jakob.
I will tell you this Kessler. Jakob is more likely to end up with a best time of 3:28.32 than to ever break 3:26. Now I am NOT saying he won’t run faster than 3:28.32, I am saying he is more likely to end up with that being his best than to break 3:26.
In my opinion Jakob has a very high chance of breaking 3:26. Consider Bernard Lagat who had a lifetime best 800m of 1:46.00 and he ran many 800s at that. He ended up running 3:26.34 for the 1500. I believe in a rabbited 800m, mid season, Jakob could run a low 1:45. With Bernard’s performances in mind and considering Jakob’s incredible speed endurance he definitely has the capability to set a new 1500 WR.
Interesting, Kerr recently won a medium-quick 800. Now we see some people favor his chances. It would be interesting to see him return to top form of two years back. I say he still has a lot to prove.
Nuguse in front of Kerr in this race. But hey, where's our world champ Jake from last year?
It is great for fans to see a line-up like this prior to worlds.
I think we can all agree that 1:46-mid is a slow and not “medium-quick” 800 for a pro athlete. I learned next to nothing from that race, but I think people tend to like backing Kerr. He could run great, but since 2021 I’d agree with you that there’s been no race quite close to the 3:29.0 Olympic final.
You say that but Daniel Komen could not run 3:26 or faster from what we know so I don’t think we can assume that Jakob can.
Exactly. Komen's form went metronomic bounce, bounce, bounce forever. Jakob's form goes stride, stride, stride forever. Jakob can drop people with his "kick" but not overall a fast guy. Efficiency maniac.
3:27's might happen but most likely way is Katir. Why? Katir is the hungriest. Most hate. Most to prove. Sick of you all calling him a doper and not Jakob.
Good point. But as JI closed very well in his 2 mile he wasn't maxed out 100 %. 27 last 200 is insane coming off of 7:24,0.
At this point I don't rule out 7:17 3k.
Still 3:26,00 is hard, as he obviously has very good endurance.
Oh that is a very spicy field. Going to be controversial and say Nuguse and Katir are 2nd and 3rd til very, very late and then get rushed before the line after trying too hard to stay with Jakob for too long.
1. Jakob
2. Kerr
3. Cheruiyot
4. Hoare
5. Nuguse
6. Katir
I predict Katir and Cheruiyot race Jakob most aggressively with Katir being the last to lose contact with ~200 to go. Nuguse passes TC and MK late and is the only one to actually split slightly faster than Jakob for the last 300, albeit off ~2:48.2 at 1200 vs. ~2:46.8.
I like this scenario with a small edit: quick-learner Nuguse gets his positioning and timing right this time--and looks noticeably more apologetic than jubilant afterward.
I think we can all agree that 1:46-mid is a slow and not “medium-quick” 800 for a pro athlete. I learned next to nothing from that race, but I think people tend to like backing Kerr. He could run great, but since 2021 I’d agree with you that there’s been no race quite close to the 3:29.0 Olympic final.
He ran 3:30 at the WC at Eugene, it's not like he fell off a cliff...He beat a few recognisable purely '800' guys in that race a couple weeks back which I think was more impressive than the time. Factor in that he also beat 'distance guys' like Grijalva and Klecker winning the 3000m earlier this year (with a 27/26 final 400) and it would be foolish to discount him.
Bislett Stadium is not that slow. Not opitimal condition last year when Jakob ran the mile 3:46.46 and Oliver Hoare 3: 47.48. The anticipiation from "all" Norwegians is that Jakob has to run better than his PB. And it is going to prefect weather conditions: 29 degrees and 1m/sec wind. Lets say 3:27:8. A lot of PBs.
As someone who has only ever won money on the few athletics bets I've made, I'm going to say there is zero chance Nuguse runs 3:28. Just please don't quote this if I'm wrong.
What have American runners done to you that you hate them so much?
You personify Norway's xenophobia.
Its not hate but logic and respect that makes me think its wrong to say Yared is the second favorite.
As new as Nuguse is at this level, you have to give him credit for his 3:47 indoor mile. Also he beat Hoare in Rabat so i wouldn't be shocked if he is there with Katir and Cheruyiot.
Its not hate but logic and respect that makes me think its wrong to say Yared is the second favorite.
As new as Nuguse is at this level, you have to give him credit for his 3:47 indoor mile. Also he beat Hoare in Rabat so i wouldn't be shocked if he is there with Katir and Cheruyiot.
He also beat Katir in Madrid. Indoor, yes, men never the less.
As someone who has only ever won money on the few athletics bets I've made, I'm going to say there is zero chance Nuguse runs 3:28. Just please don't quote this if I'm wrong.
If I put money on this I will probably loose big time. Though it would be nice with an American record at Bislett.
This field is easily the equivalent of the pending WC final, a good indicator of where the medals will go. Jakob has really moved ahead of his peers this year, however it is interesting to see others aiming to ensure they have the 5000m & 800m spectrums covered. The training and ethos has really developed this last five years. All that said, here is my top 5;
I put Nordås higher than you did. While I didn't predict a time, I would consider him a dark horse here.
It's in reality his first full year of being Gjert-trained, where Gjert didn't also have some responsibility for Jakob, Filip and Henrik. He further seems to be more dedicated - as I understand it having quit his other jobs. Then, there is what Gjert said in the interview with Citius mag about this really being the first season he's focusing primarily on the 1500-5k, instead of looking at HM-10k
As for time; he's PR-ed pretty massively in the 1500 this year, and all in meets a notch or two down from DL, and has done so relatively uncontested, which leads me to believe he has much more in him this year than 3:32.39 reflects. I would absolutely not be shocked if he runs 29 high or 30 low in a world class field that can pull him along for the ride.
I put Nordås higher than you did. While I didn't predict a time, I would consider him a dark horse here.
It's in reality his first full year of being Gjert-trained, where Gjert didn't also have some responsibility for Jakob, Filip and Henrik. He further seems to be more dedicated - as I understand it having quit his other jobs. Then, there is what Gjert said in the interview with Citius mag about this really being the first season he's focusing primarily on the 1500-5k, instead of looking at HM-10k
As for time; he's PR-ed pretty massively in the 1500 this year, and all in meets a notch or two down from DL, and has done so relatively uncontested, which leads me to believe he has much more in him this year than 3:32.39 reflects. I would absolutely not be shocked if he runs 29 high or 30 low in a world class field that can pull him along for the ride.
Actually. In 2022 he was focusing on 5000. HM was long, long, time ago. Which actually what was implied by Gjert in the interview. This year not 5000, only 1500. Well, that could give him a benefit at the 5000 as well. His plan two days from now is to run faster than 3.31.46. When he ran 3.32.39 his last 300 was not at all as fast as when he ran 3.34.70. He has his limits and is aware of them. Though, later this season or next year, he says, he will go for sub 3:30.
I assume the pacers are Akbache and Kiprugut, and in a best case scenario they deliver a 1:52.0 800m (even 3:30.00 pace) with the field in close pursuit (1:52.1 - 1:52.4). And what happens then?
Priorities in ranked order:
- Win the race.
- Win the race in a controlled manner without showing your cards.
- WC standard.
- New PB/NR/AR.
- All out WR attempt to please the crowd.
So, continuing at the start of lap 3...
I can't see anyone else than Jakob or Tim taking the lead. If Jakob takes the lead he will front run for 700m without dropping the speed, which means a 56s lap 3, passing 1200m at 2:48.00. He starts tuning up the speed with 350m to go, which converts into daylight with 200m to go. Katir is forced into lane 2/3 to get past Tim, but Tim holds on for second. Jakob celebrates a little before the line, clocking a 41.1s last 300m for a final time of 3:29.10.
If Tim takes the lead he won't try any outlast/grind-strat. He'll slow it down on lap 3, but just ever so slightly. Enough to force costly moves which he can deny, at least once or twice. After a 57.5s lap 3 Tim hits 1200m in 2:49.5. In the last quarter of the last bend several athletes are still in contention, and Jakob wins after a 40s last 300m, in 3:29.60. Tim finishes second. Katir in third. Others have faster last 300m times, but they started with a deficit.
That is a very specific predication, albeit perfectly viable given the scenario. However, to say Jakob is not going to run sub 3:29 is brave. I think if he hits 800m in 1:52 he will manage it although it is certainly not a given.
