Based on today, what chance does Rupp have in the Rio Marathon?

Wow lol wrote:

15-20 wrote:

15th to 20th. Maybe 2:09ish. More likely 2:12 low.

Even though it will be dead of winter in Rio, Americans mentally think summer in the USA means it will be boiling over in Rio.

15th to 20th in 2:09. That is absolutely unheard of in any marathon, including London and Chicago.

Not really. The record is 17:

survey says wrote:

Wow lol wrote:

15th to 20th in 2:09. That is absolutely unheard of in any marathon, including London and Chicago.

Not really. The record is 17:

http://arrs.net/BT_Mara.htm

That was clarified to 15th to 20th in 2:12, with the 2:09 as a possibility but not a medal stand possibility.

1992 olympic marathon

Gold: 2:13:23

Silver: 2:13:45

Bronze: 2:14

1996

G: 2:12:36

S: 2:12:39

B: 2:12: 44

2000

G: 2:10:11

S: 2:10:31

B: 2:11:10

2004

G: 2:10:55

S: 2:11:29

B: 2:12:11

2008

G: 2:06:32

S: 2:07:16

B: 2:10:00

2012

G: 2:08:01

S: 2:08:27

B: 2:09:37

The last two Olympics have been relatively fast, but still not as fast as all these Rupp haters think. Maybe Rupp isn't a favorite for the medal. But in a slow race, I think the defending Olympic 10k silver medalist has a pretty good shot at a medal. Maybe a worse shot if he qualifies and runs the 10k at Rio, but still a pretty good shot. If he can bust out a 2:10, most years he would get a medal. If he can manage a 2:10 on a hot day in Rio, then I think he all but has the medal in the bag.

I'm not a hater and I don't think it is medal or fail, I'm confident he'll run well and I'm rooting for him but it's a tall task being his second marathon against the competition he'll have

I honestly think all 3 of our men's qualifiers have a shot at a medal. What the top Kenyans and Ethiopians are doing these days is incredible, but the fact is that only 3 per nation get to the start line in Rio (plus a few others who have taken citizenship of other nations). And you never see all 3 from each country run a great race. 2012 E Mutai comes in with a 2:04 pr from London 2011, runs 10:00 slower. All 3 Ethiopians DNF. 2008 Luke Kibet DNFs. Plus leading up to the last 2 Olympics you had guys running super fast marathons just like now and not all of those runners could do the same in the Olympic Games.

Now, how much of a shot do I give the 3 US men... outside shot. Not long-shot, but certainly none of them get favorite status. Rupp debuted in 2:11 in hot conditions and didn't look pressed in LA. When he runs a marathon in more favorable conditions with international competition he's probably going to be 4-6 minutes faster than that. I think slow race or fast race he has the credentials (26:44/12:58) to race with the best in the world. He proved that to me on the track in London 2012. Then bring in the expected environmental factors in Rio, i.e. heat, and make it a 2:09-2:11 race and it's not a big stretch to me to see Rupp in the mix at 40k, on any given day hot/cool, fast/slow.

Meb and Ward I have different reasons to think they also have a chance to medal, but since this thread is about Rupp I'll hold those thoughts.

I think it will be tactical. if the East Africans are even remotely worried about the Mazungus they will lay down a quick early pace to throw them off.. these guys don't seem to pay for surges later on.. best chance anyone outside East africa has is if its run @ 2:09 - 2:11 pace.. they go out at WR pace for first half and its Kenyan and or Ethiopian 1-2-3

Rupp could be given the job of bringing in the course markers.

I can see the three Japanese runners going out at 4:53/4:55 pace from the gun and the tactics revolving around them in the first half perhaps even out to 30km.

Of course the KEN/ETHsix might just go out and try to make it an all African medal hunt with an early break at the end of the first lap.

I think he has a 50% chance to medal and a 20% chance to win. Expect slow times in Rio. I bet 2;11 wins it.

Rupp is basically exactly where Lopes was in 1984. Think about it. Weird thing is, like you said, he's not getting any credit. In 84 though, it was plain as day that Lopes was going to win, or medal while trying.

Sure, you might say that the competition is better now, but at least in Olympic marathons, it isn't.

Just think about it: Here's a sub-27 guy who won silver in the 10K four years ago, who debuted in a hot weather marathon a few months ago, jogging to a win in a time that would place him top 10 in every Olympic marathon. It's pretty evident he's going to be there when Biwott takes off at 21 miles. It's going to be fun to watch.

You cannot compare an older, experienced, marathoner like Lopes to Rupp. Maybe 2024 Olympics?

X-perience wrote:

You cannot compare an older, experienced, marathoner like Lopes to Rupp. Maybe 2024 Olympics?

Lopes was not experienced. He failed to finish in NY (I think in 1982) and ran (an admittedly excellent) 2:08 in Rotterdam, 1983. I don't think he had attempted any others.

1984 is a great example of how unpredictable the Olympic Marathon is and why a meticulously prepared runner with decent 10,000m speed has a great chance in an Olympic Marathon. Aside from Lopes (who brought the 10,000 speed, who would have given Treacy and Spedding a chance against Salazar, De Castella, Ikangaa, Dixon and Seko? Experience didn't have much to do with that race.

I give Rupp 50% chance of top 5; 25% chance top 3.

sovietvest wrote:

X-perience wrote:

You cannot compare an older, experienced, marathoner like Lopes to Rupp. Maybe 2024 Olympics?

Lopes was not experienced. He failed to finish in NY (I think in 1982) and ran (an admittedly excellent) 2:08 in Rotterdam, 1983. I don't think he had attempted any others.

1984 is a great example of how unpredictable the Olympic Marathon is and why a meticulously prepared runner with decent 10,000m speed has a great chance in an Olympic Marathon. Aside from Lopes (who brought the 10,000 speed, who would have given Treacy and Spedding a chance against Salazar, De Castella, Ikangaa, Dixon and Seko? Experience didn't have much to do with that race.

I give Rupp 50% chance of top 5; 25% chance top 3.

LOL ... Rupp fanboyism at its worst. Lopes was 37. Lopes was a muti-times World XC champ. In 1982--2 years BEFORE the 1984 Olympics--Lopes ran 2:08:29 at Rotterdam.

*2:08:39

And Rupp has a faster 5K, 10K, and half marathon than Lopes had, and equals the 10K medal that Lopes had.

And yeah, DeCastella was at LA too,and he beat Lopes at Rotterdam. He didn't medal at LA.

Rupp is in sub 2:04 shape

Ru[[ wrote:

Rupp is in sub 2:04 shape

You mean, sub 2:03 shape, with sub 2:02 a 90+% probability.

sovietvest wrote:

X-perience wrote:

You cannot compare an older, experienced, marathoner like Lopes to Rupp. Maybe 2024 Olympics?

Lopes was not experienced. He failed to finish in NY (I think in 1982) and ran (an admittedly excellent) 2:08 in Rotterdam, 1983. I don't think he had attempted any others.

1984 is a great example of how unpredictable the Olympic Marathon is and why a meticulously prepared runner with decent 10,000m speed has a great chance in an Olympic Marathon. Aside from Lopes (who brought the 10,000 speed, who would have given Treacy and Spedding a chance against Salazar, De Castella, Ikangaa, Dixon and Seko? Experience didn't have much to do with that race.

I give Rupp 50% chance of top 5; 25% chance top 3.

Lopes was 2nd to Lasse Viren in the 1976 Olympic 10k, and ran 27:17 in early 1984 when he was 2nd to Fernando Mamede, who was also from Portugal. They both broke the world record held by Henry Rono at 27:22 in that race.

Carlos Lopes ran the last 5 miles of the 1984 Olympic marathon on a hot day in LA at 4:42 pace. His Olympic record time lasted until 2008, when it was broken by Sammy Wanjiru. Carlos Lopes is one of the all time greats.

We just don't know what this means about the Olympics. While there have been exceptions, usually the best in the world marathon majors do not run very well at World's and Olympics, probably because they are looking ahead to big money at WMM events and maybe because they are overraced or not used to tough conditions and hills in these races.