Official 2014 Dubai Marathon Live Discussion Thread - Predict correctly and win $20.338

World record pace.

Tsegay 1:01:39 at halfway according to the tracker so they are on world record pace.

Every year I listen to this i wonder why i don't offer my services for commentating. I can't be any worse than this. It's hard to do by yourself but it would be easy to get a buddy from letsrun and just shoot the shit.

reed wrote:

15 guys now at 2:03:18 pace or faster

1:01:38 for the lead pack of 15 guys

0_o

That is freaking unreal!

rojo wrote:

Ok. I'm here now. If you still want to guess for $20, i'll let you do it up until the 21.1 km mark.

2:04:11 - Atsedu Tsegay

reed wrote:

it's not short...dubai just figured out how to fix the whole "running the tangents" problem. get rid of the tangents. straight lines for dayz

anyway...29:0x is BS, no way are 25 guys sticking around at that pace.

also, my livestream started getting really weird audio so i refreshed, now i can't get anything

anyone have some non-LRC site?

I actually do think that might explain it. I hadn't previously realized how straight of a course it was. It also doesn't hurt that it's flatter than the average track. I think the announcer said a little while ago that the total gain and drop is about 6 meters up and down.

At this pace, that pack is going to explode soon.

Top 20 at halfway:

10kmHALF30kmFinish

Pos. Number Name AC Est.Finish Est.Finish Daytime Diff Time

1 1551 Chane, Abere (ETH) 30 02:03:15 09:05:17 +00:00 01:01:37

2 36 Kibet Koech, Edwin (KEN) MH 02:03:17 09:05:18 +00:01 01:01:38

3 33 Kipyego, Edwin (KEN) MH 02:03:17 09:05:18 +00:01 01:01:38

4 1 Geneti Guteta, Markos (ETH) MH 02:03:17 09:05:18 +00:01 01:01:38

5 7 Dechase Leche, Shumi (BRN) MH 02:03:17 09:05:18 +00:01 01:01:38

6 40 Bekele Molaign, Azmeraw (ETH) MH 02:03:17 09:05:18 +00:01 01:01:38

7 23 Kassw Belay, Abera (ETH) MH 02:03:18 09:05:18 +00:02 01:01:39

8 20 Kuma Lema, Abera (ETH) MH 02:03:18 09:05:18 +00:02 01:01:39

9 13 Milaw Asefa, Abrha (ETH) MH 02:03:18 09:05:19 +00:02 01:01:39

10 27 Mekonnen Asefa, Tsegaye (ETH) MH 02:03:18 09:05:19 +00:02 01:01:39

A 11 18 Tsegay Tesfaye, Atsedu (ETH) MH 02:03:18 09:05:19 +00:02 01:01:39

12 25 Tola Adera, Tamirat (ETH) MH 02:03:18 09:05:19 +00:02 01:01:39

13 4 Birhanu Gebru, Girmay (ETH) MH 02:03:19 09:05:20 +00:02 01:01:39

14 2 Kiplimo Maiyo, Jonathan (KEN) MH 02:03:19 09:05:20 +00:02 01:01:39

15 14 Lemma Kasaye, Sisay (ETH) MH 02:03:19 09:05:20 +00:02 01:01:39

16 2500 Chala, Sufa (ETH) MH 02:03:45 09:05:48 +00:15 01:01:52

17 9 Asefa Wakeyo, Habtamu (ETH) MH 02:04:33 09:06:34 +00:39 01:02:16

18 3 Kipngetich Korir, Laban (KEN) MH 02:04:47 09:06:48 +00:46 01:02:23

19 17 Tesfa Tiruneh, Workneh (ETH) MH 02:06:56 09:08:57 +01:51 01:03:28

20 8 Kemboi, Nicholas (QAT) MH 02:06:56 09:08:57 +01:51 01:03:28

Same, feed is a disaster

25k - 73:21

They've slowed to 2:03:48 pace at 25k. WR is not going to happen.

The weather we have at the start and 1 hour in is 59 degrees, 4 mph wind from south, 78% humidity.

So looking at the course map, it's important to note that they are going slightly in the wind from about mile 10 to 20.

The cours empretty much runs NE til mile 10, then southwest from maybe 10 to 20? i'm estimating as i don't see mile marks and then they get the win with them as they go back NE til the finish. It's basically a giant rectangle with 2 180 turns and 2 90 degree turns.

Look at this map and rotate is about 45 degrees as it's not set up N/S:

http://www.dubaimarathon.org/dublinluas/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/Dubai-Marathon-2014-42km.jpg

local 5k guy wrote:

They've slowed to 2:03:48 pace at 25k. WR is not going to happen.

Of course not. I mean why would we expect a world record from these guys based on their past? We wouldn't. It was interesting while it lasted.

They are runnin 3 min per km right now pretty much. That's 2:06:35 pace so 63:17 for halfway.

What was the 1st half 61:19?

So even if they stay at this slower pace, you are still looking at 2:04 and change.

Top 20 women at halfway:

10kmHALF30kmFinish

Pos. Number Name AC Est.Finish Est.Finish Daytime Diff Time

1 2870 Gemgchil, Lishan Dula (BRN) WH 02:28:07 09:30:10 +00:00 01:14:03

2 W9 Haydar, Sultan (TUR) WH 02:28:09 09:30:10 +00:01 01:14:04

3 W4 Dado Tufa, Firehiwot (ETH) WH 02:28:10 09:30:11 +00:02 01:14:05

4 W8 Oljira Jemama, Belaynesh (ETH) WH 02:28:10 09:30:11 +00:02 01:14:05

5 W6 Seboka Seyfu, Mula (ETH) WH 02:28:11 09:30:12 +00:02 01:14:05

6 W14 Ahmed Deko, Zemzem (ETH) WH 02:28:11 09:30:12 +00:02 01:14:05

7 W7 Gobena Gemeda, Amane (ETH) WH 02:28:11 09:30:12 +00:02 01:14:05

8 W1 Melkamu Haileyesus, Meselech (ETH) WH 02:28:11 09:30:12 +00:02 01:14:05

9 W2 Hailu Debele, Meseret (ETH) WH 02:28:12 09:30:13 +00:03 01:14:06

10 W13 Dalasa Adugna, Sechale (ETH) WH 02:28:12 09:30:13 +00:03 01:14:06

11 W15 Eticha Jimma, Fantu (ETH) WH 02:28:12 09:30:13 +00:03 01:14:06

12 W23 Gizaw Tola, Melkam (ETH) WH 02:28:12 09:30:13 +00:03 01:14:06

13 W22 Mokonnin Ourge, Alem (ETH) WH 02:28:12 09:30:13 +00:03 01:14:06

14 W11 Kidane Gebremichael, Werknesh (ETH) WH 02:28:13 09:30:14 +00:03 01:14:06

15 W12 Haftu Tessema, Goitetom (ETH) WH 02:28:13 09:30:14 +00:03 01:14:06

16 W18 Tilahun Biruk, Konjit (ETH) WH 02:28:13 09:30:14 +00:03 01:14:06

17 W20 Melese Arage, Yebrgual (ETH) WH 02:28:13 09:30:14 +00:03 01:14:06

18 W21 Moges Cherenet, Betelhem (ETH) WH 02:28:14 09:30:15 +00:04 01:14:07

19 W17 Tekulu Gebremeskel, Abeba (ETH) WH 02:28:14 09:30:15 +00:04 01:14:07

20 W16 Berha Yachem, Lemelem (ETH) WH 02:28:30 09:30:31 +00:12 01:14:15

28K 1:22:19 2:04:03 pace - and Yes the course is so open that the light wind still equates to 2-3 seconds per K.

I wonder if Mare Dibaba who won by running 2:21:36 in Xiamen on Jan 2nd is kicking herself for nor running her as 2nd is $80,000 and first $200,000.

http://www.letsrun.com/news/2014/01/meet-japans-galen-rupp-run-finish-line-cricket-bigger-track-drinks-irish-aussies-race-walkers-1500-runners/

Mens Lead group comes through 30k in 1:28:15

2:04:07 pace 1:28:15

Well, I lost the competition. Tsegay is done, and there's seemingly no chance that the winning time will be as slow as 2:04:55 at this point.

And by done, I don't mean DNF... just that he's 15 seconds off the pack.

30k lead splits for men. 8 guys in lead pack on 204 flat pace:

10kmHALF30kmFinish

Pos. Number Name AC Est.Finish Est.Finish Daytime Diff Time

1 36 Kibet Koech, Edwin (KEN) MH 02:04:07 09:06:08 +00:00 01:28:15

2 7 Dechase Leche, Shumi (BRN) MH 02:04:07 09:06:08 +00:00 01:28:15

3 1 Geneti Guteta, Markos (ETH) MH 02:04:07 09:06:08 +00:00 01:28:15

4 27 Mekonnen Asefa, Tsegaye (ETH) MH 02:04:08 09:06:08 +00:00 01:28:15

5 20 Kuma Lema, Abera (ETH) MH 02:04:08 09:06:08 +00:00 01:28:15

6 4 Birhanu Gebru, Girmay (ETH) MH 02:04:08 09:06:09 +00:01 01:28:16

7 40 Bekele Molaign, Azmeraw (ETH) MH 02:04:08 09:06:09 +00:01 01:28:16

8 23 Kassw Belay, Abera (ETH) MH 02:04:09 09:06:09 +00:01 01:28:16

9 25 Tola Adera, Tamirat (ETH) MH 02:04:09 09:06:10 +00:01 01:28:16

10 14 Lemma Kasaye, Sisay (ETH) MH 02:04:16 09:06:17 +00:06 01:28:21

A 11 18 Tsegay Tesfaye, Atsedu (ETH) MH 02:04:28 09:06:29 +00:15 01:28:30

12 13 Milaw Asefa, Abrha (ETH) MH 02:05:21 09:07:22 +00:53 01:29:08

13 2500 Chala, Sufa (ETH) MH 02:07:01 09:09:04 +02:04 01:30:19

14 15 Bayabel Gesese, Yekeber (ETH) MH 02:08:03 09:10:04 +02:48 01:31:03

15 16 Alemayehu Ameta, Belachew (ETH) MH 02:08:03 09:10:04 +02:48 01:31:03

16 24 Misganaw Tegegne, Abraraw (ETH) MH 02:08:38 09:10:39 +03:12 01:31:27

17 3 Kipngetich Korir, Laban (KEN) MH 02:09:05 09:11:06 +03:32 01:31:47

18 17 Tesfa Tiruneh, Workneh (ETH) MH 02:09:28 09:11:28 +03:48 01:32:03

19 22 Ugachi, Tsuyoshi (JPN) MH 02:09:50 09:11:51 +04:04 01:32:19

20 2866 Kimaiyo, Edwin (KEN) MH 02:11:38 09:13:41 +05:20 01:33:35

The mat and road splits seem a little out of sync

mat 30K 1:28:15 2:04:07

road 1:28:20 2:04:14

31K road 1:31:27 2:04:29

32K road 1:34:22 2:04:26

33K road 1:37:28 2:04:37