NXR Southwest predictions

Looks like On The line made a right prediction that Fork would beat Herriman at state

Simmons is also ranked as the top nonsenior here

dyestatxcrankings.runnerspace.com

DyeStat XC RANKINGS - News - Individual Boys Top 30 - 11/3

By Doug Binder, DyeStat EditorThe Top 30, 10/201 (1). Leo Young, senior, Newbury Park CA: 2 (2). Lex Young, senior, Newbury Park CA: 3 (3). Tyrone Gorze, senior, Crater OR: 4 (4). Rocky Hansen, senior, Christ School NC:5 (6)....

Link:dyestatxcrankings.runnerspace.com/gpro...

Cory Mull gave AF a 30% chance of winning. He was just covering his bet (butt?).

Entries list

athletic.net

Track & Field, Cross Country Results, Statistics

Meet results and team scores.

Link:www.athletic.net/CrossCountry/meet/214...

No mountain vista? Tyler downs could have challenged for a NXN spot.

Entries don't close for another 5-6 days

Right. Some regions have their entries posted because NXR will be this weekend for them. NXR is later for the SW region

More intresting for the moment is that Mountain Vista is opting for another meet instead of squaring off with Niwot and Cheyyene Mountain tomorrow. Niwot (REAL training) is hosting a 2 mile under the lights tomorrow that will see a 4A grudge match between Niwot and Cheyyenne Mountain. Instead Mountain Vista will square off with 2A champs and runner-ups, St. Mary's and Colorado Springs Christian School at the Liberty Bell Classic 3200. 3a #10 Jefferson Academy and 5A #15 (and meet host) Heritage.

While there is not doubt Vista isn't racing tomorrow, individual entries are not up for Liberty bell. Its possible they aren't racing their A team this week, in the past it doesn't look like their team has raced a 2 mile prior to NXR. Vista isn't entered in either NXRSW or RLN yet, so its hard to know what they are going for.

Looks like it is on there now

But for real I would have been surprised if Vista was not on there

Although Herriman boys won a state title in 2012, they have never made NXR before. This will be their first if they make it.
Mountain View UT also never made it before if you don’t count the RunningLane championship race.
For the Valor Christian boys team to go for the first time they will need a 4 / 5 to seriously step up

Wow Herriman has 4 different teams in the open race.

Ogomo was Herriman’s 3rd guy at state and he was put in an open race.

Classic Soles move right there.

Is Ogomo hurt or something?

Steadman closed for the 4-5 gap in the first meet and ran at state and got bumped off the championship race too

Nice moves there

Anyone know when the full entries list will be posted??

I still see this race as wide open.

The Colorado teams have done nothing to separate from each other. Meylan's speed ratings suggest that CO is down this year - WAY down.

Valor: 16:18 in 2021, 16:12 in 2022

Cheyenne Mountain: 15:47 in 2021, 16:16 in 2022

Niwot: 16:08 in 2021, 16:22 in 2022

TCA: 16:38 in 2021, 16:22 in 2022

Mountain Vista: 16:20 in 2021, 16:27 in 2022

This is where it gets interesting.

Valor finished 9th at RL last year. They're barely ranked this year. They ran faster at state this year than last year.. CM and Niwot ran faster at state this year than MV and Valor did last year, yet they are unranked.

The big question that is still as unanswered now as it was in August - how do the CO teams stack up vs. the UT teams? NXR-MW showed how wrong the experts were about IL vs. IN. It seems crazy that there are 5 to 6 UT teams better than the best CO team, but it could be so. One only needs to go back about 4-5 years to find a year where UT punched CO in the face.

Valor ran faster this year because of their top 3 times. Their 4 and 5 will bring them down.

Mountain Vista’s top sophomores aren’t doing as well as expected based on last year’s RL performance and their performance from the start of the season. This team always progresses well though. Maybe they will peak at NXR.

It’s gonna be hard to take down Mountain View and American Fork now. Valor Christian needs to close the 3-5 gap to do so.

Herriman could break up that duo of teams, but their coach decided to put 2 of their key runners that ran at state into an open race for some reason. Maybe their whole team peaked too early based on the state meet result. Maybe Ogomo and Steadman are hurt now?

If no team comes close to American Fork or Mountain View (or whatever top 2 it will be) I don’t think there will be an at-large on the boys side

Mountain View and AF are good now because they both closed the 2-5 gap. And both have a low stick.

As far as MW goes, Carmel was missing their #3 so that’s why they got 5th. Imagine how this team would have been without Provenzano. But they are young and will have a better shot to make it next year. They will probably need to close the 2-7 gap more though in case someone else gets hurt. Provenzano might get top 5 in that region.

Downers Grove North lost their 1-3 from last year and still reloaded and should be the favorites next year due to how well they reload. They return most of their squad including their 1/2. That’s enough to make them favorites. If they don’t have a 5th for next year now, they will find one.

Another Plainfield team (North) will be good next year. So will Noblesville

Entries posted!!!

nxrsw.runnerspace.com

NXR Southwest Regional - News - 2022 Entries - NXR Southwest Regional

BibFirstLastTeam NameGenderYearCityStateDivisionCustom5000KatelynPhilpot719 EnduranceF11MonumentCOMedium IYELLOW5001OliviaSargent719 EnduranceF12MonumentCOMedium IYELLOW5002ChloeShearer719 EnduranceF10MonumentCOMedium IYELLOW...

Link:nxrsw.runnerspace.com/eprofile.php?eve...

With the team entries officially out, here's how I'd power rank the boys' teams who made it:

1. Herriman
2. Mount View
3. American Fork
4. Valor
5. Orem
6. Lone Peak
7. Mountain Vista
8. Riverton
9. Cherokee Trail
10. Cheyenne Mountain
11. Niwot
12. TCA
13. Desert Hills
14. Centaurus
15. Highland
16. Fairview
17. Park City
18. Rock Canyon
19. Farmington
20. Corner Canyon
21. Skyridge
22. Rio Rancho
23. Volcano Vista
24. Snow Canyon
25. Castle View
26. Lehi
27. Thunderridge
28. Denver East
29. Hamilton

I do think Utah has the upper hand for boys this year (opposite for girls), but it should be a great battle. I think the entire top 10 has potential to pop off for an NXN bid

Girls NXRSW is absolutely stacked, some nationally ranked teams will be on the wrong side of the line. Plus, potentially a top 15 team will be waiting on the at large selection, which will be tough, wonder if someone on the bubble will sign up for RLN to make sure NXN doesn't screw em.
Current nationally ranked teams (as of 11/16/22): 8
No. 2 Niwot CO
No. 10 Air Academy CO
No. 12 Lone Peak UT
No. 16 Mountain Vista CO
No. 18 Cherry Creek CO* (not attending)
No. 19 Valor Christian CO
No. 21 American Fork UT
No. 23 Arapahoe CO

Do you guys think that Herriman peaked too early? Is that why they finished so low at state?