Kai Wilmot you're my hero

A 9:55 2 miler won Nx.

If kamiakin does not beat NC next year at WA State, I don't think they ever will.

Do you feel like Kamiakin has a better team coming back? Or you just think this will be as close as they can get? Both?

I took a quick look at Athletic and I wouldn't see any reason to think the reign will end anytime soon.

Spokanewecan wrote:

Do you feel like Kamiakin has a better team coming back? Or you just think this will be as close as they can get? Both?

I took a quick look at Athletic and I wouldn't see any reason to think the reign will end anytime soon.

I usually compare their 3200m times for a good pre-XC season line-up.

With the track season coming to an end these guys should all be getting some PRs at districts this week.

Grade for XC 2015 Place

12NC Tanner Anderson 8:59.81a 1

12KAM Andrew Snyder 9:05.03a 2

11NC Justin Janke 9:18.83a 3

12KAM Cameron Glade 9:38.46a 4

12KAM Ben Brooks 9:46.19a 5

11KAM Phillip Fishburn 9:47.18a 6

12KAM Jonathan Lafferty 9:48.45a 7

11NC Sam Sjoberg 9:50.18a 8

10NC Hank Knight 10:05.29 9

10NC Jacob Christner 10:07.76 10

KAM: 24

NC: 31

While this is in NO WAY an indication of how the XC season will role out, I believe that Kamiakin is going to be the team to beat next year ON PAPER

A note, North Central is scary. ALWAYS count on them having two-three runners come out of the wood-work and jump up! The sophomores for this coming year, Hank Knight (brother of Katie Knight) and Jacob Christner will probable run WAY faster in cross than on the track.

So to answers your question, on paper Kamiakin has a better team coming back. Now to say that if not this year, than never, is definitely a broad claim, but I think Kamiakin's chances this year are going to be hard to beat.

I forgot to put in Andrew Vandine, I'll put him in behind Cameron Glade(10th at WA State compared to Vandine's 17th)

NC: 28

KAM: 27

Cool cool, thanks for the post man.

Sure Kamiakin has a chance to knock North Central, but the real team to beat is going to be Central Catholic in the Northwest. They could have 2 guys under 16 at NXN Northwest, and if their fifth guy could crack 16:40 on that course they'll be the best team there.

NW Guy wrote:

Sure Kamiakin has a chance to knock North Central, but the real team to beat is going to be Central Catholic in the Northwest. They could have 2 guys under 16 at NXN Northwest, and if their fifth guy could crack 16:40 on that course they'll be the best team there.

Yep - I haven't done an in-depth look yet, but based on track times I'd say CC should be the clear #1, with Kamiakin edging North Central for #2 and Gig Harbor close behind to round out the top 4.

I haven't looked at CC yet. That is pretty good.

watchout wrote:

NW Guy wrote:

Sure Kamiakin has a chance to knock North Central, but the real team to beat is going to be Central Catholic in the Northwest. They could have 2 guys under 16 at NXN Northwest, and if their fifth guy could crack 16:40 on that course they'll be the best team there.

Yep - I haven't done an in-depth look yet, but based on track times I'd say CC should be the clear #1, with Kamiakin edging North Central for #2 and Gig Harbor close behind to round out the top 4.

CC 30

KAM 43

NC 47

1. 12NC Tanner Anderson 8:59.81a

2. 12KAM Andrew Snyder 9:05.03a

3. 12CC Sam Truax 9:18.72

4. 11NC Justin Janke 9:18.83a

5. 11CCJack Lavier 9:23

6. 12CCJean Tooley 9:28

7. 12CCSam Lomax 9:33

8. 12KAM Cameron Glade 9:38.46a

9. 11CCDaniel Thompson 9:43

10. 12KAM Ben Brooks 9:46.19a

11. 11KAM Phillip Fishburn 9:47.18a

12. 12KAM Jonathan Lafferty 9:48.45a

13. 11NC Sam Sjoberg 9:50.18a

14. 10NC Hank Knight 10:05.29

15. 10NC Jacob Christner 10:07.76

I don't know about Gig. I don't see how they will be anywhere close to as good as Summit.

I wasn't meaning to imply that there wouldn't be any other teams challenging for the top 2 - just that Gig Harbor was close to North Central based off track times, and that Central Catholic was the clear #1 while Kamiakin looked stronger than NC/GH.

For what it's worth... here's WA 2A-4A based on track, weighted towards longer races (as usual, because we're looking towards XC), and not excluding individuals (because that would take an extra column to sort out). Only the top 110 on Athletic.net for 4A, then any kids as fast or faster for 2A/3A.

Scores:

1. Kamiakin 185

2. North Central 212

3. Gig Harbor 260

4. Eastlake 317

5. Bellarmine Prep 386

6. Central Valley 434

7. Tahoma 514

8. Mt. Spokane 526

9. Henry Jackson 545

10. University 581

(big gap to #11, and there were 16 schools that have 5+ returning)

Also, for what it's worth, scoring NXR after combining all races and removing all seniors:

1. Kamiakin 91

2. Central Catholic 98

3. North Central 114

4. Summit 159

5. Gig Harbor 163

6. Bellarmine Prep 245

7. South Eugene 246

8. Vallivue 248

9. Olympia 251

10. Mountain View (ID) 255

11. Mountain View (OR) 326

12. Tahoma 342

13. Eastlake 348

14. Jesuit 389

15. Deer Park 421

16. Boise 444

(...)

But that's not including kids that didn't run at NXR, of course, so Summit would look better with their #1 included (it would actually bring them right alongside CC, I think).

For track, not as impressive at CC and not much if any better than Gig: (comparing using weighted 3200m conversions)

8:55.36 Matthew Maton (Summit#1)

9:02.61 Tristan Peloquin (Gig Harbor#1)

9:38.04 Alex Martin (Summit#2)

9:39.46 Tyler Jones (Summit#3)

9:41.03 Ryan Gregory (Gig Harbor#2)

9:41.34 Michael Hammer (Gig Harbor#3)

9:57.04 Matthew Sjogren (Summit#4)

9:57.36 Jack Sheilds (Gig Harbor#4)

9:58.53 Jake Quincey (Gig Harbor#5)

10:24.44 Charlie Carpenter (Gig Harbor#6)

10:29.01 Tom Schoderbek (Summit#5)

Track Summary: Summit has an edge at #1, Gig Harbor HUGE edge at #5 (a sub-10 guy vs. a ~10:30 guy), while both teams close at #2-4 (Summit slight edge at all, but never by more then 3 seconds).

So, in short, I expect Summit to be up there. I'm not sold they are better than Kamiakin/North Central/Gig Harbor though.

Also, I just looked at throwing Summit's track marks into the WA 2A-4A comparison above, and they end up between Bellarmine Prep and Central Valley (and much closer to CV: 401-431-448, 102 points behind Eastlake).

Hm. So last xc seasons they will make a run at NXN. This spring says it's a long shot.

Spokanewecan wrote:

Hm. So last xc seasons they will make a run at NXN. This spring says it's a long shot.

And a more complete look will probably show something in between - that they are definitely strong contenders, but probably not the regional favorite.

Either way, it isn't unreasonable to suspect that Gig Harbor and maybe some other teams might challenge Summit this fall for a NW Top-3/4/5 finish, along with CC/NC/Kamiakin.

We will see what kind of magic NC does this summer. They tend to be much more competitive in the fall than in the spring.

Sam Sjoberg did not have as good of a track season as his XC season. Andrew Vandine (GSL 800 champion/4:17 mile) is not on your list either. Those two will at least be competing with that Kamiakin trio you have near 9:40. Jacob Christner has continued to make huge improvements and expect him to be running near Andrew and Sam as well this fall.

Plus they have several other runners that were right not far behind in XC that could make a jump. Not sure how many of that group return, but I thought I remember there being several freshman (or underclassmen) in that group.

Spokane Area wrote:

Plus they have several other runners that were right not far behind in XC that could make a jump. Not sure how many of that group return, but I thought I remember there being several freshman (or underclassmen) in that group.

They ALL come back. NC only had 2 seniors in their top 21 last year (Wilmot and Reed) ... Gus Johnston and DJ Wordell were the top Seniors on JV and were #21-28 type guys.