Monaco 5000m 2023 : Aregawi VS Kiplimo + Gebrhiwet, Telahun, Katir, Ahmed, Tefera, Ndikumwenayo

Jakob's ethiopian and kenyan opponents now know that if they run at slow pace he has good chances of winning (as happened last year) so they will run very fast and pace will be brutal (12'40"-12'45") If this happens there is no way Jakob can win.

I would not be surprised if Cheptegei do it and run an exceptional 12:33 as a revenge of the mistake he made last year.

No chance - what a nonsense.

I wouldn’t say he has *no* chance of winning, but you’re right that if we’re betting on Jakob vs. the field, then the smart money is almost always on the field. If Jakob wins the 1500, then he’ll be full of confidence. If he loses, then he’ll be out for blood. Either scenario could be dangerous for his competitors. Regardless, he’ll have three rounds of the 1500 in his legs. Between all of the 12:40-12:45 guys, at least one of them will probably figure that if they make it quick, then they can take the sting out of Jakob’s kick. And at least one of those guys will probably feel good enough to start really putting the hurt on at 3k. Will it be enough? I really can’t wait to watch this one!

There have now been a record 13 sub-12:50s this year. Seven of the top 13 marks (sub-12:43) have been achieved in 2023 and 10 of the top 22.

Well said.

Maybe we don't have the same definition of outsider. In french-speaking countries (temp_account and I have this in common) the english word outsider is used to describe somebody who has a slight chance of being on the podium but who is clearly not a favorite.

I'm not sure about Edris in 2017, i don't remember exactly. I can see he had won several diamond league meets before his WC title so he must have been among the favorites. But I remember 2019 was a surprise as his season was awfull. In that case he was hardly an outsider.

It just depends how much all have left in the tank. Last years 5,000 final ended up being a shell of what it could’ve been. Kejelcha came in injured after issues in training. Kiplimo/Katir didn’t contest it (injuries in buildup ~ 1 event only). Cheptegei injured himself in the prelim. Haile Bekele didn’t make it due to the horrible little Q system. Aregawi was scratched after a bad 10k finish. Barega was overraced and underperformed. Simiyu felt so overmatched he couldn’t participate in moving the pace along even though that was clearly the Kenyans’ team tactic. Kipkorir/Krop both thought they were overraced and Kipkorir did more time at the front than he wanted.
Let’s hope this year we get the showcase it could be:

Kiplimo/Katir: Both healthy, likely to double

Krop: Fewer races, near PB despite leading a lot of yesterdays 5K

Cheptegei/Kejelcha: No injury as of yet

Gebrhiwet: Rounding into form at the right time, proven champs performer

Aregawi: Most consistent season yet, feels double-capable

Haile Bekele: Better than ever if he gets to step in

Other Guys: Grijalva, Nur and Simiyu have really taken big steps forward, Chelimo is back, Kipkorir maybe down a bit and also doubling but he also might be holding back a bit running a lot of yesterday in no-man’s land

Stepping back: Mo Ahmed trending downwards, no Grant Fisher, Oscar Chelimo not looking good.

No time Qs means this field should be the best of the best. You never know how much carnage there’ll be in the buildup, 15/10, prelims but I think last year was downright chaos. This year should be a little more chalk.

Fair enough.

That’s a nice encapsulation of where the top pros are at this season. You’re totally right about last year’s WC final being a shell of what it could’ve been (by contrast, I really loved watching the 2019 race). If we don’t see a barn burner this year, it’ll be incredibly disappointing!

Jakob stated some years ago that his best distance was the 5000m and even though THOUGHTSLEADER thinks he knows better (TL is pointing at the 3000m as Jakob´s strongest distance) I assume Jakob himself knows best.

So: the times run by Aregawi, Kejelcha, Kiplimo, Cheptegei, Gebhriwet and Haile Bekele - as impressive as they are - still are one or two levels under Jakob´s 2 mile WB. Aregawi´s 5000m gives 1282 points in World Athletics system whereas Jakob´s 2 mile gives 1304 points.

If Jakob´s best distance is the 5000m the 1304 points equals at least 12:34 in this distance.

In short: No one can run away from Jakob unless the current WR is broken significantly provided Jakob brings his A game to Budapest.

So - as we say in my country of origin - Jakob´s competitors can either choose the Pest or Cholera:

Shall they go out fast with the risk to explode before Jakob does it

OR

shall they run at a moderate pace risking to get the same treatment as last year.

Yeah I still think 3,000. Man did run 7:54 so I feel pretty good about it.

This makes no sense?

I think it wouldn't be appropriate to compare two performances in two different distances. Having a WR in the two miles doesn't make you the best in 5.000m. The fact is that there will be the WR holder of the 5.000 and many other guys Who can run 12'40". A tempo that Ingebrigtsen never have run. And then i ask you: why does he never run the 5.000m events in Diamond League meetings?

I thought you said Kamelåså!

Girma beating the WR of the 3000m SC (by almost 2 secs)
The young brit running 1.55 in a 800m

6 guys running 1.43 in a 800m

Jakob failing at 3:28 high completely gassed two weeks later.

They will choose to drop the cow to the ground where it belongs.

Lamecha Girma:

3000 Metres7:23.8115 FEB 2023 1306

3000 Metres Steeplechase 7:52.11 9 June 2023 1295

Faith Kypiegon 14.05.20 WR 5000m the same day

7 runners with 1.43 in the 800m