Allie O in Pre Steeple

SDSU Aztec wrote:

It takes good 1500 speed to be an elite Steepler and to run 9:14, around 4:05 is necessary. Her PR is 4:15, but we don't how soft that time is.

I bet that Ostrander will not run 9:14 in the foreseeable future but one does not need that kind of speed for 9:14. A long distance type (which Ostrander clearly is as her 5k/10k results are rather better than her steeple PB) with good hurdling technique can run 8:50 flat with 4:10-12 1500m PB and this would be fast enough for 9:14 steeple. Even Krause (not a long distance type with 2:04 4:07) broke 4:10 only about twice and ran 9:15 and 9:11.

Someone slow like Schlumpf (she's over 6 ft. though) has run 9:21 steeple with PBs of 4:17/15:23 (her second best event after steeple is the half marathon! 1:10)

I'm excited for this race and glad to see some chatter about it. I really think Allie would have a solid strategy in sticking with and trying to beat Mel Lawrence. I'd love to see her take this season as far as she can and qualify for worlds. Yet it's true that it's essentially become a never-ending season, and I don't want to see her get hurt or burned out.

My guess on time: 9:20 - 9:24 given good conditions and a clean race (no falls).

Since there has been discussion on what event she should focus on in the future, here is my guess: If she qualifies for Worlds, she should skip it and focus on NCAA XC. What would be better for the future AllieO 'brand'? A 'back-of-the-pack' finish at Worlds in the steeple that everyone forgets immediately, or a top-3 finish at NCAA XC with a very realistic shot at winning?

After next spring, it will be interesting to see if she continues to focus on steeple for 2024. Given that at least 1 of the Coburn, Frerichs, Quigley trio may slow down (due to age, injury, etc.), it seems Allie would have a decent shot at making olympic team in 2024 as a steepler. That said, I think her best events in the future will be the 10K and marathon.

LateRunnerPhil wrote:

one factor wrote:

Her 9:37 was in 98 degree heat.

I agree that people talking about sub 9:20 are being a bit unrealistic, but I think sub dropping 7-10 seconds to go sub 9:30 is not unreasonable.

And it's 3000m not a marathon

Allie is an extremely small/light runner. So physiologically, she has a massive advantage in the heat compared to taller, heavier runners. She is still affected by it, but not as much as others. There are "heat index" running charts that show how much faster you would be in ideal conditions, but those charts are just an average - some like Allie will do better in heat than suggested (and as a result, will not be that much faster in ideal conditions) whereas others will do terrible.

What she did in extremely hot conditions at NCAA's shows a great deal of potential. She crushed a hot weather (Israeli) athlete with a 9:29 pr. I think that she is born for the event and if the conditions are good will drop a lot of time. It helps distance runners immensely to have people to push them and to draft off of and chase. I would not be surprised at all to see low 9:20s or high 9:10s. Look at what the AR holder and silver medalist did.

Allie O ain’t big but she has a lotta heart ❤️, 9:18

I don't think she'd be running at this meet if herself, her coaches, and the meet directors think she'd be running 9:40. So I predict 9:23 +/- 5 seconds.

Has Elinor run her last steeplechase.

I Don't Mean Rosevelt wrote:

Has Elinor run her last steeplechase.

She seems to be on the Jenny B program now.

ThatAverageRunner wrote:

SDSU Aztec wrote:

It takes good 1500 speed to be an elite Steepler and to run 9:14, around 4:05 is necessary. Her PR is 4:15, but we don't how soft that time is.

Can frerichs run much under 4:05..?

Frerichs, for sure, is someone who has soft PRs for the flat races. Even with the obstacles, it's still a 3000 meter race and you have to be fast. Jager has run 3:32 and Malmo ran 3:40.

Allie is an excellent competitor and rises to challenges. After missing all of the 2016 outdoor season, due to injury, she ran 15:27 in her first outdoor race (no pre event tune ups) to qualify for the 5K final at the OT. Then 2 days later she runs 15:24 to place 8th (nearly 7th) in the final.

I thought at the time it was a big stretch to show up at such a big event as a freshman without having raced for 3 months and expect to compete at that level. She clearly has a poise and toughness beyond her years and her racing confirms that. Don't confuse her size or experience with her ability or will. She will definitely compete well and likely run a significant PR. I predict 9:20-25.

Anyone would be nuts to turn down a world team.

Silly math wrote:

Anyone would be nuts to turn down a world team.

This.

Especially if it could be the only chance for her.

The US might never have 4 spots again and overall women's running is deep enough in the US that Ostrander could be in no way sure to earn such a spot. Steeple is not easy but it's not impossibly hard either (especially with the low women's barriers) and it can be an attractive option for 4:07/15:15 runners who would not make a US worlds team in the 1500, 5k or 10k. Even with poor technique someone like this can run sub 9:30 in their first steeple season and get to 9:20 quickly if they adapt to the event.

Allie is too small to be an elite steepler. She also is too worried about being small to be an elite steepler.

Big Woman wrote:

Allie is too small to be an elite steepler. She also is too worried about being small to be an elite steepler.

If anything, her size is an advantage in distance events. Kipruto dominated Rio and is 5'6 / 128, and he was in direct competition with taller athletes (Jager, Mekhissi)

So the shorter the better for steeple? Shouldn't the world record holders be 4' for women and 5' for men then? Taller is better.

If I were Allie, and if I had to pick, I'd choose NCAA XC. Outside regular LRCers, not many people remember who was on a world team in a particular year, especially if they do not finish on the podium. Winning NCAA XC would result in far more articles and press for Allie than would coming in top 10 (off the podium) at Worlds. And I would think that this greater press coverage could lead to a better pro contract. I think she should try to qualify for Worlds (as that would also help gain a better pro contract), but the cost of competing at worlds would seem to exceed the expected benefits.

stephanie hh wrote:

Silly math wrote:

Anyone would be nuts to turn down a world team.

If I were Allie, and if I had to pick, I'd choose NCAA XC. Outside regular LRCers, not many people remember who was on a world team in a particular year, especially if they do not finish on the podium. Winning NCAA XC would result in far more articles and press for Allie than would coming in top 10 (off the podium) at Worlds. And I would think that this greater press coverage could lead to a better pro contract. I think she should try to qualify for Worlds (as that would also help gain a better pro contract), but the cost of competing at worlds would seem to exceed the expected benefits.

If Allie qualifies for worlds, then we need a new thread. Lots of options: she could immediately go pro and run worlds, stay amateur and run worlds, skip worlds and try to rack up more NCAA championships in XC, indoor, and outdoor. Surely there are other options as well.

My guess for Pre: If no one is willing to push the pace during the first K, I think she will run 9:30-9:35. If the race is honest from the gun, she will run 9:18-9:22.

Pace is relative when you have a woman in the field who has run 8:44 over the barriers.