Official Jorgensen Marathon debut thread

I'll say 2:41. NYC Marathon debuts are hard.

It would have been cool if she wouldn't have done the triathlon last weekend. It was 3 triathlons or something like that in 3 days and there is no way she is recovered from that. If she hadn't done that she would have been probably mid 2:30s, but i think she will not even be in the front of the pack. We won't see her much on the TV unless they want to focus on her for some reason.

I will guess she will keep 5:50's up to 20 miles then fade a bit in the last 10k for a 2:39.

Here's the deal about Jorgensen and the marathon: if she can eventually get it down to say, the mid-2:20's, she will cement herself into history as the most overall badass in her sport. Because of technology, measurement, rule changes, etc., the times in the triathlon are not comparable from one course to another, and certainly not from one generation to another. Part of the allure of the marathon is it's simplicity and the meaningful aspect of the times.

Mark Allen will forever be considered the King Of Kona due in large part to his sub-2:40 clocking there, which took 37 years to be improved on, in a non-winning performance. Jorgensen has a shot to go down as the female Mark Allen. No other crossover performance from one sport to another would compare.

She has bigger balls than Kilian Jornet

Gwen Jorgensen breaks the American record in her debut and achieves a net worth of 100 million by the end of next year, while appearing on the cover of Runner's World, People magazine, various other outlets etc. Reaches a million followers by the next Olympic cycle. Climbs Mount Everest. Runs for political office in 10 years.

2:43:19

She has bigger balls than Dean Potter.

CatalanBuff wrote:

She has bigger balls than Kilian Jornet

Albeit he is dead.

*stipe wrote:

Smart athlete. I say she goes out at 2:36 pace and fades to 2:37-2:38. 1-2:00 positive split. Exceptional debut.

Lolololoololololl

"Conley’s buildup hasn’t been flawless. She says she was most discouraged after she had a hard time locking into a rhythm when she was trying to run a half-marathon steady state at marathon race pace (5:25-5:30 pace).

However, 10 days later, she was thrilled when she ran a 15-mile fartlek at the same pace without even trying to do so. “I wasn’t trying to force anything. I’m trying to tell myself that is a good thing for a course like New York. I’m hoping the rhythm finds me out on the course and I don’t have to force it.”

15 @ 5:25?

What did Jorgensen do?

minong wrote:

Official guess on my part is 2:38:47.

Obviously that's much slower than she's capable of. But she's made several comments that indicate she's going to go out much slower than I think a lot of people around here are anticipating. She also said she was very sore after the 10 mile a few weeks ago and that she's doing this for "fun". I know she's extremely competitive, but I don't think she has any interest in a death march the last 6-8 miles. Even when she's feeling great hitting the half at 1:19ish she's too smart to start pushing.

All that being said, I hope I'm wrong and she gets crazy and heads out with the leaders, but I just don't see it happening.

75:53 at the half. So I was wrong so far.

2:41:01

76:00 / 85:00 splits. Yikes.

Smashes world record wrote:

She will fade pretty hard at the 19 mile mark. She will still manage to run 2:41:05 though.

We have a winner.

disgraceful_admin wrote:

dreamw0rld wrote:

So who thinks Jorgensen is either going to DNF or bonk massively the last 20K?

16 mile longest run, only 50 miles a week.

I don't think long runs matter as much for a triathlete who probably does 4-5 hr block workouts including biking and swimming.

Wrong.

fred wrote:

disgraceful_admin wrote:

I don't think long runs matter as much for a triathlete who probably does 4-5 hr block workouts including biking and swimming.

Wrong.

"as much" is correct. He didn't say "not at all".

HardLoper wrote:

I'll say 2:41. NYC Marathon debuts are hard.

ding ding ding

Dumbfux wrote:

2.28ish, maybe quicker. Everyone saying 2.40 is a smart debut for an athlete of her quality should punch themselves in the face. That may happen, but that would be a massive fail and an indictment on her coach.

2:41.............hahahahahahahaha!!!

disgraceful_admin wrote:

dreamw0rld wrote:

So who thinks Jorgensen is either going to DNF or bonk massively the last 20K?

16 mile longest run, only 50 miles a week.

I don't think long runs matter as much for a triathlete who probably does 4-5 hr block workouts including biking and swimming.

Blocks of tri training are great for tri's,marathoning at faster levels require specific training for the distance.Lets be honest she was not prepared for the marathon.Being a great triathlete does not automatically mean you will succeed at a marathon because you are tri fit.