jjjjjj wrote:
ritz never maximized in a marathon due to cramping or fueling issues for whatever reason. still, 38 seconds faster at 10k for Rupp, x4 and you get 2:32. Subtract that from 2:07:47 and you get 2:05:15. If you assume Ritz would have run 26:59 in good weather if he'd had a chance after the world's that year (instead of running world half), then you have 2:06:47.
You can't extrapolate like that. You're assuming they both have the same speed decay. Is this not obvious?
Isn't the OP just an imposter troll? "rupp-certified salaadbar " has an extra "a" in it I think. The real handle should be "rupp-certified saladbar".
To all you guys claiming Meb is "nowhere near" 2:08, explain how he soundly beat a recent 2:10 guy and a slew of 2:11 guys who trained for the race of their lives? He ran the equivalent of at least 2:09 if not better and later performances will bear that out.
lolololol wrote:
Isn't the OP just an imposter troll? "rupp-certified salaadbar " has an extra "a" in it I think. The real handle should be "rupp-certified saladbar".
'cause saladbar is a little angle. Butt, yeah, it's a saladbar-wannbe. PURE jealousy.
So if a coach has never coached someone of a particular time, that athlete will never run that time?You do realize how idiotic your statement is, correct?Think about it.
rupp-certified salaadbar wrote:
So, Alberto SALAZAR says that Galen Rupp is "a 2:05 guy someday"?
It is so funny that he casually throws that out there. TWO POINTS.
ONE. Alberto Salazar has never coached, trained with or even had a conversation with a "2:05 guy," so how would he know this?
TWO. Rupp is only 15 seconds better in the 10,000 than Dathan. Therefore Dathan should be within one minute of Rupp in a marathon, or a "2:06 guy." Since Dathan barely broke 2:08 in years of flailing away with Salazar, is Salazar admitting that he FAILED TO OPTIMALLY DEVELOP DATHAN?
Only serious discussions on these points, please.
Nevermind wrote:
To all you guys claiming Meb is "nowhere near" 2:08, explain how he soundly beat a recent 2:10 guy and a slew of 2:11 guys who trained for the race of their lives? He ran the equivalent of at least 2:09 if not better and later performances will bear that out.
How far did Ritz make it in this race?
Follow the thread of reasoning from earlier. I am simply following that assumption. In other words, if (and that is a big if) marathon times correlate with 10k times and 10k times are predictors of marathon times and they do so linearly, then we could easily see Rupp running 2:05. Now I know that on an individual basis, some 10k runners will be adapt to the marathon than others, so the calculation may be a rough guide but certainly nothing airtight and there are numerous faster 10k runners who are slower marathoners. That being said, it has been shown that 10k time is a better predictor for marathon time than half marathon times. (Ritz ran 59:59.x, rounded up to 1:00:00, while Rupp has not run faster than 1:00:30).
some will "better" adapt than others.
rupp-certified salaadbar wrote:
So, Alberto SALAZAR says that Galen Rupp is "a 2:05 guy someday"?
It is so funny that he casually throws that out there. TWO POINTS.
ONE. Alberto Salazar has never coached, trained with or even had a conversation with a "2:05 guy," so how would he know this?
TWO. Rupp is only 15 seconds better in the 10,000 than Dathan. Therefore Dathan should be within one minute of Rupp in a marathon, or a "2:06 guy." Since Dathan barely broke 2:08 in years of flailing away with Salazar, is Salazar admitting that he FAILED TO OPTIMALLY DEVELOP DATHAN?
Only serious discussions on these points, please.
1. He (Rupp) ran 2:11 without pushing hard in the heat. That indicates he should be able to run ~2:06 now with cool weather and if he pushes himself.
2. With more experience at the distance, he will certainly be able to get to 2:05, likely faster IMHO.
3. He rarely gets injured, so should have a good 3-5 years of quality marathoning ahead of him.
4. His 10,000 time converts to 2:02:58 with the Daniels VDOT calculator, which is the most reliable equivalency predictor.
rupp-certified salaadbar wrote:
That is right. Their ceiling is exactly 15 seconds different and using Ritz's soft PR is not a good argument.
Why is that the ceiling? And what's with all the excuses for Ritz's 10,000 times? He ran what he ran and never got close to dropping below 27. Rupp is a vastly superior runner who has 7 consecutive 10,000m titles. Ritz on the other hand has never won a national championship on the track. Rupp has won an Olympic Trials marathon, something Ritz has never done despite focusing on the event for 10 years. Rupp's 10,000 PB is much closer to Sammy Wanjiru and Eliud Kipchoge than Ritz. I don't think he'll be as good as those two but he is a substantially better runner than Ritz.
Butt-certified Clown-bar wrote:
1. He (Rupp) ran 2:11 without pushing hard in the heat. That indicates he should be able to run ~2:06 now with cool weather and if he pushes himself.
...
4. His 10,000 time converts to 2:02:58 with the Daniels VDOT calculator, which is the most reliable equivalency predictor.
Do you have anything to support either of these statements?
jjjjjj wrote:
Follow the thread of reasoning from earlier. I am simply following that assumption. In other words, if (and that is a big if) marathon times correlate with 10k times and 10k times are predictors of marathon times and they do so linearly, then we could easily see Rupp running 2:05. Now I know that on an individual basis, some 10k runners will be adapt to the marathon than others, so the calculation may be a rough guide but certainly nothing airtight and there are numerous faster 10k runners who are slower marathoners. That being said, it has been shown that 10k time is a better predictor for marathon time than half marathon times. (Ritz ran 59:59.x, rounded up to 1:00:00, while Rupp has not run faster than 1:00:30).
No, there's no need to follow that reasoning if it is flawed from the start. You cannot do an accurate linear extrapolation with only one time. Different guys have different speed decays.
Consider that Rupp ran a 2:11 when:
1) It was brutally hot. (I was sweating just standing there.)
2) The course sucked - over 100 turns and in ugly downtown LA
3) It was his first marathon.
4) there was little or no competition. (All due respect to Meb)
5) there wasn't much incentive for him to win. He would qualify with a 3rd place finish. (I'm assuming the 80k doesn't mean that much to him)
I think in an ideal race, he definitely could run 2:05.
Rupp is going to be the first man to break 2 hours. Salazar only gave him a half dose before the trials. Imagine what 3-4 consistent doses will do.
2:05. Meh.
Call me when he runs 2:04 AR, like I did.
rupp-certified salaadbar wrote:
So, Alberto SALAZAR says that Galen Rupp is "a 2:05 guy someday"?
It is so funny that he casually throws that out there. TWO POINTS.
ONE. Alberto Salazar has never coached, trained with or even had a conversation with a "2:05 guy," so how would he know this?
TWO. Rupp is only 15 seconds better in the 10,000 than Dathan. Therefore Dathan should be within one minute of Rupp in a marathon, or a "2:06 guy." Since Dathan barely broke 2:08 in years of flailing away with Salazar, is Salazar admitting that he FAILED TO OPTIMALLY DEVELOP DATHAN?
Only serious discussions on these points, please.
Saying Rupp will be a 2:05 guy 'someday' is a pretty conservative statement, I am not sure how you could have a problem with that.
We will all know soon enough.
In my opinion, Meb let Galen win. I mean, Meb finished easy, smiling, waving, yelling, he had no reason to push hard or finish fast, he had second place in the bag. I think our Marathon team this year will be the best we have had in a long time!
Rupp ran 2:11 was ease on a very very hot day!!!! Ritz dropped out like a bad habit. Rupp ran the last 4 mile at what 4:55 pace all alone.
So according to this thread, if Rupp has a better 10,000 time than Ritz, it's only because he got a race set up for him. If Rupp beats Meb by over a minute in the marathon trials, it's only because Meb let him win. This Rupp character sure is lucky.
