Central Park will win wrote:
Similarly matched women as Thweatt haven't broken 2:30 at NYC. Double her HM and add 10-12 minutes to get a prediction of what she'll run.
Yo, we'll see. That's why they have races.
Recall that Thweatt's an XC runner, and a good one in case you follow the sport, so NYC's rolling course including Central Park should be very well suited to a strength runner. The big if is the debut part.
Central Park will win wrote:
Faster times in the marathon? I find this hard to believe. Any other year may be different with appearance fees.
Yes, I should have clarified. This was another year with a faster field. Still $2500 is quite a bit of money for those females who do not have a chance of making the team, on the fringe of the A standard, and unsponsered. Maybe more would have entered NYCM in addition to the Trials if they had known they would be compensated like that.
Honestly, 6:00 pace at best if she runs a good race. Also, she's not eligible to run the Olympics if she places in the top 3 (unlikely) at the trials.
I'm thinking DNF or 2:45-2:48 range at best. I hope that I'm wrong, but I just don't see it.
Odd? wrote:
I wonder how she can miss so many classes. Where I go to college if you miss more than 2 class periods, for any reason (NCAA sports particpation, illness, death in family, etc) your grade is significantly reduced. Also, does anyone else find it odd that Mark drives all the way to UNC to get her, take her back home to run, and then bring her back? Is she incapable of not seeing her parents or running by herself?
I had maybe 1 or 2 classes in college where attendance was required and recorded.
I predict DNF, but hope she crushes.
Why the heck are we guessing the marathon time for a lady who at best will finish 23 minutes the WR time and is more likely, if she finishes, to run a time maybe 33 minutes behind the WR? Hey guys, let's guess Joe Blow's marathon time - he maybe will run at best a 2:25 and is more likely, if he finishes, to run a 2:35! That is beyond stupid.
Also, why even post that video when she barely runs half the workout if not to have the excuse of her "cold."
I'm wondering if she'll start with the elite women or with the regular first wave - if she runs with the elite women she'll be all along after 10 miles - that happened to Fleshman when she ran NYCM - you just get stranded.
I suspect she will start with the elites but if she would still be eligible for prize money starting with the regular crew I would do that.
She'll run 2:42
err...if she starts with the elite women she'll be all ALONE after 10 miles
If she starts with the elites and runs what would likely be her own pace for a solid performance, she will be alone by 5k. If she starts with the elites and tries to run their pace, by halfway-isn, she will be watching the race the same way the rest of us are, though she may get a half marathon PB in the process.
Who knows -- maybe she will be OK, in this race and beyond, but her career trajectory, such as it is, seems like a textbook case of how not to approach things with an adolescent athlete. She does seem, perhaps, to have the potential to be a solid runner at the USA level, but if she makes it to that level and remains there for even a few years it seems like it will be in spite of her 'guidance' and not because of it.
Another DNF.....damn!!
Mark, I know you, you care about your daughter. Reboot. Me
agip wrote:
err...if she starts with the elite women she'll be all ALONE after 10 miles
Very poor choice for her to run with the elites knowing she would be running a solo effort. Its unfortunate emotions dictate running a certain event outweighs strategic common sense. Painful learning lesson for this young woman.
What were the splits for the opening miles?
She needed to develop as a athlete/runner in college. Very poor choice to run Marathons at such a young age. Everyone watching that flotrack video knew she wasn't ready for NYC. How can her coach/Dad be so clueless and let her run?
Given how many DNFs she's had already this year and how she's put herself in the spotlight, it shows very poor judgement on her and her father's part to choose NYC. They knew she wouldn't go with the lead pack, which only leaves her to run alone. Terrible decision making. She should have run City of Oaks in Raleigh or Richmond. Dial it back a notch, Hadleys.
Ms. Hadley appears to be a very mature young lady devoid of giving the giggly interviews of a number of women her age....I'm looking at you Mary Cain.
With that said, Mr. Hadley and his young protege really need to assess her career thus far and going forward. Maybe some acknowledgement that they (he in all likelihood) tried to bite off more than she could chew way to early needs to be made. Some adjustments clearly need to be made if she is to continue. At some point the DNFs and poor races will add up to either disinterest on her part, lack of invites and more likely both.
split questions wrote:
What were the splits for the opening miles?
You can see them, for the top 10 at the various checkpoints here. And you can search for individual runners:
http://liveresults.nyrr.org/These show the top 10 women at 5km at 17:21-17:22.
Looking up Hadley's data, she crossed 5km at 18:41; 10km at 37:24; 15km at 57:17, 20km at 1:26:02.
Tweet from Alana:https://twitter.com/AlanaHadley?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
TLC…munk wrote:
She needed to develop as a athlete/runner in college.
I disagree with this. Kamworor is doing fine skipping the college experience. He pretty much moved right up to long distance. Not everyone needs to follow the same NCAA path. In fact, the NCAA college experience isn't for everyone and MAYBE it is not the ideal training for future marathoners.
The problem with this marathon is the athlete was obviously not ready and/or overtrained and/or had virtually no taper, and/or sick with a cold.
I do think she should drop down to half-marathons for a while. Like Kamworor did. Get speed at the half and revisit the fulls later at age 20/22, where Kamworor is. She's got a massive aerobic base and running some halfs or even road 5ks would be very beneficial. It will keep the training from getting stale.
Are you really comparing those two? Yeah, if Hadley just drops down to the half marathon distance, she'll recover. That's rich.
It's too late. Nothing to do with physical ability (although that might be maxed out. At 18). The multiple setbacks and multitude of "reasons" have taken their toll on her. It's in her head.
