Totally Stacked 2014 DL 5k Oslo - Hagos, Dejen, Caleb and Galen - Will Rupp get the American Record??

Looks like 10 mph winds tomorrow night in Oslo. I'll say they crack 13. 12:58 for the winner.

Divide the winner's purse in two, give half to the winner regardless of time and parcel out the remainder by certain time levels. No extra money required. But you could also get insurance to pay for time bonuses that would not be achieved frequently, not world records but sub 12:50, 3:48, 3:29, 1:43, that sort of thing.

After reading Renato's post, I'm less bullish on Ndiku this time but who knows? Maybe with five days from the last race and no workouts, he'll actually be fresh. But it's right to think that the Ethiopian runners have a better shot. I don't think that Rupp can win on the kick right now but he is capable of sub 12:50 with a fast pace to bell.

If they do not follow the rabbits or if the pacers take it out too slow, my bet is on Alamirew. Looked like a beast last year in Birmingham, when he almost beat Mo. He lost to Ndiku at Pre, but as Renato said, Ndiku might be tired after so many 5ks. Not sure about HG.

If they start out as they did in Paris, I'll stick to my sub12:50 prediction for the winner.

@in other news: No way. Arne is not capable of Dieter's record, as much as I'd like to see that.

jjjjjjjjj wrote:

Divide the winner's purse in two, give half to the winner regardless of time and parcel out the remainder by certain time levels. No extra money required. But you could also get insurance to pay for time bonuses that would not be achieved frequently, not world records but sub 12:50, 3:48, 3:29, 1:43, that sort of thing.

I'm not okay with taking all DL races and cutting funding for athletes in a sport that already has little of it to begin with (such as in your split purse example) just because people are butt-hurt about not seeing faster times. However, I think it would be cool to have one meet a year that is strictly based on time incentives.

The insurance idea I'm fine with but even then you have to pay a premium relative to the likelihood of the fast time and as such would need extra money.

spade detector wrote:

Star wrote:

Why would you need to close faster than 1:57 (which is 12:11 pace) if the pace is fast?

If the last 4 laps are about 4:02 (63,62,60,57), that could put Rupp in a winning position.

I've got a job for you. See how many 5000m races you can find in the last 5 years where running 60, 57 would have won.

Last year's Monaco 5000m.

Winning time 12:51.34 (2013 world leader)

Last 800m was 1:59.27 (62.55/56.62)

Also, the New York Diamond league race was won in 13:10 with a 2:08 close by Gebrhiwet.

My guess is that could find more over the last 5 years if I wanted to.

/2012+Olympic+Track+Field+Team+Trials+Day+1/xlzYP0lhfnl/Galen+Rupp

ets-of-the-week-mo-farah-and-galen-rupp.html

advocate for same wrote:

jjjjjjjjj wrote:

They need to have major time bonuses for these DL events, because there is far too much sitting and kicking in the low 13s or very high 12:50s with everyone going for the prize money for the win.

Where's that money going to come from?

Appearance fees

I believe the meet starts at 4PM EDT Wednesday 6?11 is that correct?

Often they stream the more national level events before the big money races. any idea if that will happen?

Thanks

biggest load of bs ive read all week...u clearly havent seen the past results going back as far as 2010...why do you post shit you have no idea what your talkin about.

http://www.diamondleague-oslo.com/ResultsArchive/2010/Oslo/Results.pdf

see link..above...anyone who still believes Oslo is slow is deluded....

spade detector wrote:

fact is... wrote:

Stop being pedantic. It was pointed out above that the fastest race in recent memory closed in 155.7-ish.

We get it, a slow pace will require faster. If Rupp can close a 10k in 157, I'll bet he can do as much or better in a typical 5k.

I think it's reasonable to ask someone to admit when they are wrong. Sorry that it bothers you so much.

So is it now reasonable that we ask you to admit that you were wrong?

all NOPers are dopers

tophtoph wrote:

http://www.diamondleague-oslo.com/en/Live-StartlistsResults/Overview/5000m/?classicview=True

Stacked field and several sub13s, possibly. What do you expect? Jogfest, sit & kick with Alamirew and HG FTW or will they take it out hard? Where do you see Gallen Rupp? Top 3? Any chance to prove better 5k abilities than we all expect? Discuss.

I predict that Merga, Lomong, and Bumbi will team up to knock Rupp around the track like a pinball. Salazar will go ballistic and punch several Eth fans in the face and kick Schumacher in the balls. At least I hope.....

and Rupp will finish 8th but be moved to 1st after 7 DQ's.

logician wrote:

advocate for same wrote:

Where's that money going to come from?

Appearance fees

I don't think we should water down fields by reducing appearance fees just because you're tired of seeing 12:50-13:10 races.

Star wrote:

spade detector wrote:

I think it's reasonable to ask someone to admit when they are wrong. Sorry that it bothers you so much.

So is it now reasonable that we ask you to admit that you were wrong?

Absolutely. I was wrong.

Congrats!! wrote:

...and Rupp getting edged out at the finish ending up 2nd or 3rd in about 12:51. New AR. No way he finishes more than 5 seconds behind the winner at this point (after that 10k).

Ummm, wouldn't that 10k effort have drained Rupp for any AR attempt? Too soon.

After Rupp got out kicked in a 5k, the excuses were that Rupp was saving himself for a 10k AR effort. In other words, Rupp does not do AR efforts for every race.

Star wrote:

Rupp has not run many European races in his career.

This is true. Rupp does avoid traveling long distances to races.

fact is... wrote:

If Rupp can close a 10k in 157, I'll bet he can do as much or better in a typical 5k.

Rupp closed in 1:57 because he had wind-breakers hired who helped him conserve his energy. Don't expect that to happen in a race where Rupp doesn't have someone hired to help him out.