How much would Mary Cain have won by today?

Saggy Surprise wrote:

Probably would have finished fourth. If she couldn't beat Baxter in the past no way she was winning this race. Track is her specialty and future.

Excellent logic. How in the heck did Alexa win then, since she had never beat Baxter prior to Saturday?

Yes, but would she have beaten Alana Hadley in a marathon? I've got you there. Oh wait--you mean that's completely irrelevant. Indeed--and so is this thread. It doesn't matter two whits if Efraimson would have beaten a barely in shape Cain at NXN; it doesn't matter if Efraimson would have beaten an in shape Cain at NXN. That is high school X-C. Here's what matters: Cain has run world class times in the 800 and 1500, and Efraimson and Baxter have not only not run national class times at those distances but they haven't run national class times at any distance. CAIN MADE THE WORLD CHAMPIONSHIP FINAL: THE world championship. Oh, but Baxter is a long distance runner. When Cain ran 15:45 (without training specifically for it) she came through two miles in 10:12; last year Baxter ran two miles in 10:10.Cain: 1:59.51; 4:04.62; 15:46.46Efraimson: 2:06.54; 4:16Baxter: 10:10.26No coulda, woulda, shoulda--this is what they ran last year.None of the above is meant to demean in any way whatsoever Efraimson's and Baxter's achievements, but as of today they are not in the same league as Cain, and if anything it actually demeans them to try to find some artificial way to compare them. I'm done.

trackcoach wrote:

Although I think MC would have won, but based on her 5K PR, 16:50 over hills and hay bails would have been a race. In fact, if you took the top NCAA girls, excluding Abbey, they would have been in a race. Most of the top NCAA girls only run in the low 17s on tough XC courses.

Dumb thread, dumb posters. Cain was hardly prepared for NXN last year (very late summer track season, minimal xc races before NXN) but she still went because the thought was that she could win based on her immense talent. Didn't work out that way.

Guess what, she's hardly prepared for XC right now, too. So she probably wouldn't have won this year either.

However, had she made high school cross country her main focus, she would win. Last year or this year. But that's a waste of her efforts. Not trying to take away from Baxter or Efraimson, but them's the facts.

I think there is truth to both sides, but the truth has to be somewhere in the middle. Cain ran some amazing indoor track times (4:32/4:28/9:38)in late January to mid-February last year. Everything points to her being a much better track than xc runner. That being said, she continued to step it up outdoors including an impressive 5k, but again below her shorter distance times (I do realize she may have held something back in that race).

I don't think you can only point to Cain losing to Baxter last year, but I also don't think you can only point to Cain's world class track performances last spring/summer.

I wouldn't bet anything against a fit Mary Cain winning the NXN race on Saturday, but I also haven't seen anything that makes me think she would completely blow the other 3 out of the water.