Alexa Efraimson will win NXN 2013

Watchout - You are great at what you do so I'm not saying I KNOW you're wrong, but I think this is a case where too many data points work against you. While it won't be true for everyone, I think you will see that Woodward to Morley is more like 1% for the best runners. I know Morley is just as it has always been so unless Woodward somehow got A LOT faster over the years, the difference isn't more than fifteen seconds. I used to run these numbers and predictions off of those conversions served me well. Good news is we will know for sure in a week. I'm thinking the kids who show up in San Diego with their best races will be within a percent of their Woodward time. A bunch of kids who peaked just to get there will screw up the curve.

You may very well be right. What I am confident in is how the State/NXN courses compare, rather than how the FLN course compares (far too few a sample size in comparison). So maybe the Balboa equivalents should be faster across the board? I was just trying to find a common ground course where all these athletes might compete (and NXN, obviously, is pretty variable year-to-year, so while I could compare times to Portland Meadows in good conditions, it wouldn't potentially hold the same relevance)

I wouldn't bet against Baxter she hasn't lost a Cross race ever for a reason Baxter=Beast even better then Hasay was.

Thanks for the stats, watchout, this is really interesting.

I'm really starting to question the credibility of Flotrack's Workout Wednesdays.

The Arkansas "mile repeats" were clearly not mile repeats. Anyone watching the effort level of the runners will quickly realize that and Flotrack shouldn't be advertising it as such, even if Arkansas is the one claiming that it is.

I also don't believe this workout is totally legitimate. I can't go into the reasons why, but I don't think that it is.

One thing for sure about Sarah Baxter, she has never been challanged for the win in four years of HS XC.....

if challanged...a big if....It will be interesting to see what Sarah will do...will she panic, not have a kick, will have kick, get beat soundly, or possibly come from behind to win after being passed?????.....many scenarios!!!!...that's why I won't miss it!

I predict she wins like she has the last two times, runs with the group and then slowly pulls away around the mile and half mark or 2 miles.......by the time she finishes it wont' take kick to win.

BTY: Alex is third triing to hang with Sarah, Cranny picks up the pieces and finishes second.

Another poster mentioned this earlier but Efraimson living so close to the course could help her a bit, if only in less tangible ways....no jet lag or travel fatigue and maybe she can sleep in her own bed and get a better night sleep. Those sorts of things can make a difference on race day.

DedicatedRunner wrote:

Alexa beat college-level runners in a 5k. She is more than a miler. The race will not be a slam dunk for Baxter. She will have to earn her victory.

Those college-level runners were not trying to beat her so stop saying this.

ook wrote:

DedicatedRunner wrote:

Alexa beat college-level runners in a 5k. She is more than a miler. The race will not be a slam dunk for Baxter. She will have to earn her victory.

Those college-level runners were not trying to beat her so stop saying this.

Sure they were. Bates said in an interview she was disappointed she lost.

ook wrote:

DedicatedRunner wrote:

Alexa beat college-level runners in a 5k. She is more than a miler. The race will not be a slam dunk for Baxter. She will have to earn her victory.

Those college-level runners were not trying to beat her so stop saying this.

I have a really hard time believing this. Alexa out-sprinted them, yes? No way they just let her do that.

Actual Logician wrote:

Sure they were. Bates said in an interview she was disappointed she lost.

Being disappointed doesn't equal trying your best to win for Bates and or the rest of the field.

gdfsafad wrote:

I have a really hard time believing this. Alexa out-sprinted them, yes? No way they just let her do that.

Why? Have you never heard how often NCAA teams are 'saving it for the race that really matters'? How they hold back in order to preserve their peak and not blow their wads too early? Knowing that mentality is wide spread, why would you have a hard time believing it?

ESPECIALLY if she's not even one of their actual competitors. There is absolutely no benefit to racing 100% against her. She is not in the NCAA.

Sprinting 200m does not equal "blowing your wad."

they call me flopro wrote:

I wouldn't bet against Baxter she hasn't lost a Cross race ever for a reason

because she's never run FLN.

Check bates' best 5k time....dellinger smoked her previous best....Alexa pushed her....bates couldn't hang on for the win.

ook wrote:

Actual Logician wrote:

Sure they were. Bates said in an interview she was disappointed she lost.

Being disappointed doesn't equal trying your best to win for Bates and or the rest of the field.

ook wrote:

gdfsafad wrote:

I have a really hard time believing this. Alexa out-sprinted them, yes? No way they just let her do that.

Why? Have you never heard how often NCAA teams are 'saving it for the race that really matters'? How they hold back in order to preserve their peak and not blow their wads too early? Knowing that mentality is wide spread, why would you have a hard time believing it?

ESPECIALLY if she's not even one of their actual competitors. There is absolutely no benefit to racing 100% against her. She is not in the NCAA.

Exactly.......and Alexa was saving it for tomorrow....the race that matters.

At Dellinger Invite, the pre-race instructions included for the collegiates not to successfully challenge any high schoolers for the win, or they would automatically forfeit any appearance in Terra Haute. Bates almost blew it.

I pick Alexa for the win.

Can, t read lets run because of wallmart pop up