NXN Baxter vs Efraimson vs Cranny: Best Matchup Ever

FOr the benefit of the non-trolls out there, let's look at the Pr's (HS Career) of the 2008 v. 2013 cohorts:

2008:

Hasay: 9:52m/4:14 (4:17 and World youth bronze soph year)

Goethals: 10:01y (in 2010)

Brasovan: 10:15

Kroeger: 10:24m

AVERAGE = GOOD

2013:

Cain: 9:38y/4:05

Cranny: 4:15

Efraimson: 4:18 (world youth bronze soph year)

Baxter: 10:06m

AVERAGE = PHENOMENAL

Of course, the 2013 cohort stands to improve on all of these times, but we'll spot the '08ers that advantage...still no contest, not to mention much greater upsides for college/pro careers.

Looking deeper, 2008 Foot Locker also had Shalaya Kipp and Emily Sisson (who ran 15:48 in high school)

figure outer wrote:

FOr the benefit of the non-trolls out there, let's look at the Pr's (HS Career) of the 2008 v. 2013 cohorts:

2013:

Cain: 9:38y/4:05

Not sure if you're aware but Cain is not competing in this race. She's irrelevant. Were she to be competing, then it would be no contest, 2013 would easily be the most competitive girls' championship field in US history.

But, she is not.

Like I said, if we go by 3200m (NXN course is 5k in case you weren't aware, more than thrice as far as a 1500), the 2008 girls were faster.

My understanding is that this race is going to be held on Hoth, the Ice Planet. I hope Baxter doesn't forget to wear her Extremely Cold Weather(ECW)Clothing.

http://www.wunderground.com/US/or/portland.html

` wrote:

My guess is Cranny over Efraimson ~30s back of Sara, unless one or both of them really try to go with her, in which case the gap will be larger and they could finish outside the medals (more likely for Cranny).

Anything is possible, but I would be completely shocked if Efraimson is 30 seconds back of Baxter.

Alexa's actual 2 Mile PR of 10:15.82 came from the Brooks PR Invitational where she got 3rd as a Sophomore. So.....10:55 is very wrong

Camas Knowledge wrote:

Alexa's actual 2 Mile PR of 10:15.82 came from the Brooks PR Invitational where she got 3rd as a Sophomore. So.....10:55 is very wrong

That's my mistake, I didn't look at indoor on her dyestat stat page.

8 br0 5 wrote:

Baxter is going to crush the field. She made Cain her ****, and she'll do the same with these inferior runners.

I'm looking forward to this race but I'll disagree with the majority and say Efraimson wins. I've seen her race in person several times this year and I just don't think she can be beat.

Good luck to all.

Everyone keeps talking about the "conditions" The course is only bad when it rains. Its not permanently muddy. Just when it rains and there is a chance for sun.....

I'm going to go with 1981 as best matchup I can think of. Vicki Cook and Tania Fischer were studs and they weren't even in the picture.

I don't think the 2008 field would have ranked as one of the top five matchups of the 80s.

I'm looking at a bigger picture to say that, TAKEN AS WHOLE, this is hands down, the best overall class of High School girls distance runners in U.S. history, regardless of who may or may not actually compete at Portland Mudholes on Saturday.

And it's not like the rising star, Davis sophomore O'Keefe wasn't the fourth fastest girl *ever* at CIF last weekend. We are seeing a sea change in girl's running level.

cur cur wrote:

Everyone keeps talking about the "conditions" The course is only bad when it rains. Its not permanently muddy. Just when it rains and there is a chance for sun.....

Predicted conditions for Saturday:

Imperial Stormtooper wrote:

My understanding is that this race is going to be held on Hoth, the Ice Planet. I hope Baxter doesn't forget to wear her Extremely Cold Weather(ECW)Clothing.

http://www.wunderground.com/US/or/portland.html

That's perfect weather for the Northeast and New York kids!! We love that weather this time of year.

I'd love to see Sarah Baxter three-peat at NXN, the perfect record in XC.

But Alexa beat the runner-up at NCAA. That girl is no joke. Definitely would not be surprised to see an upset.

whatthewhatthewhat wrote:

figure outer wrote:

Only one of the 2008 girls broke 4:40/10:00 on the track, this time around there are three that have/will, one of which is a world jr medalist.

Did you even look up the facts? What a ridiculous statement, NONE of this year's girls have gone sub 10. And you can't predict the future; possibly none of them will ever accomplish it (Chelsey Sveinsson, Amber Trotter come to mind.)

2008 track

Jordan Hasay: 9:52

Ashley Brasovan: 10:15

Kathy Kroeger: 10:24

average: 10:10

2013 track

Sarah Baxter: 10:06

Alexa Efraimson:10:55

Elise Cranny: 10:38

average: 10:32

Alexa and Elise are primarily milers but even then, they are currently both slower than Jordan Hasay was after her junior year.

I'm looking forward to this year's NXN girls final more than the boys but calling it the best lineup ever is incorrect.

Not really fair to judge Cranny and Efraimson, who didn't really run the 3200m much, against three athletes who did. But, as the other poster mentioned, Efraimson has actually run 10:15.82y indoors - the 10:55.0h you found was when she was doing a cool down with her teammate (or at least, I'd call it a cool down... what it really was was finishing off a workout inside of a local invitational in which she was to pace her teammate).

Also not really fair to compare times run at Colorado altitude to three kids who ran at sea level.

But surely you can AT LEAST admit that the top two runners compare pretty similarly -

Baxter > Hasay on all the courses they ran in cross country. So that part is a no brainer. It isn't really close - Hasay ran 16:27 at Mt. SAC and 17:02 at Woodward, while Baxter ran 16:00 at Mt. SAC and 16:40 at Woodward.

Efraimson and Cranny haven't run the same XC courses as Brasovan or Kroeger, so we'll have to look at track times:

Efraimson ran 2:06.54 and 4:16.00 (1500m) outdoors and 10:15.82y indoors.

Cranny ran 2:08.50 and 4:15.07 (1500m) outdoors, and focused on the 800/1600m and only running to win the 3200m at State (at Colorado altitude, of course).

Brasovan ran 4:55.97 (1600m) and 10:13.45 (3200m) for her PR's in 2007.

Kroeger ran 4:51.47y and 10:24.53y for her PR's in 2008.

Pretty easy to tell who has the advantage there as well.

watchout wrote:

But surely you can AT LEAST admit that the top two runners compare pretty similarly -

Pretty easy to tell who has the advantage there as well.

I'm not saying this year's class is a snooze-fest and I'm not saying 2008 was head and shoulders above this class.

I'm saying while this is definitely a VERY good matchup at NXN, it is a bit of an exaggeration to say it is the best of all time. The fact that we are even comparing times and nitpicking shows that 2008's was just as good.

Also, you're comparing a lot of mile times; this is a 5k, over 3 times as long. Not saying mile times are irrelevant but definitely not as important as, say, a 2 mile time. Baxter was significantly slower than Cain going into last year's meet in the mile; she still won.

You say you want to talk actual race distance yet ignore that the 2008 race was one of the slowest races in FL history. You also ignore that over 5k Baxter beat the best ever high school distance runner last year (a girl who ran 15:45 as a workout) and Ephraimson took down the NCAA runner up. Never have credentials like that lined up against each other. (Still think '81 might be a faster field though.)

whatthewhatthewhat wrote:

watchout wrote:

But surely you can AT LEAST admit that the top two runners compare pretty similarly -

Pretty easy to tell who has the advantage there as well.

I'm not saying this year's class is a snooze-fest and I'm not saying 2008 was head and shoulders above this class.

I'm saying while this is definitely a VERY good matchup at NXN, it is a bit of an exaggeration to say it is the best of all time. The fact that we are even comparing times and nitpicking shows that 2008's was just as good.

Also, you're comparing a lot of mile times; this is a 5k, over 3 times as long. Not saying mile times are irrelevant but definitely not as important as, say, a 2 mile time. Baxter was significantly slower than Cain going into last year's meet in the mile; she still won.

whatthewhatthewhat wrote:

watchout wrote:

But surely you can AT LEAST admit that the top two runners compare pretty similarly -

Pretty easy to tell who has the advantage there as well.

I'm not saying this year's class is a snooze-fest and I'm not saying 2008 was head and shoulders above this class.

I'm saying while this is definitely a VERY good matchup at NXN, it is a bit of an exaggeration to say it is the best of all time. The fact that we are even comparing times and nitpicking shows that 2008's was just as good.

Also, you're comparing a lot of mile times; this is a 5k, over 3 times as long. Not saying mile times are irrelevant but definitely not as important as, say, a 2 mile time. Baxter was significantly slower than Cain going into last year's meet in the mile; she still won.

Actually, I just compared the top 2 runners 3200m/2 mile times to the top 3 runners 3200m/2 mile times, because Cranny never really raced a 3200m since she focuses solely on the 800m/1600m (only running the 3200m to score points at state). Never mind the fact that Efraimson did the same, but at least she ran a pre-season race (Brooks indoor) at that distance - and she was still faster than all the 2008 runners aside from Hasay. And if Cranny is better than Efraimson? Then that's a no brainer.

No one is discussing how 2008 might possibly be better, except you. You bring up stats, and others have brought up more impressive resumes for this year's crop.

Baxter vs. Hasay? No question, she's proven it quite thoroughly on the XC courses. Baxter has the edge.

Efraimson/Cranny haven't run the same courses as Brasovan/Kroeker, and Efraimson/Cranny are mid distance runners in track while Brasovan/Kroeker were long distance types, yes Efraimson/Cranny are much more dominant (and Efraimson is faster than either at 3200m/2 mile despite not actually running it during the season).

It's no question. This year's crop is faster.

Actual Logician wrote:

You say you want to talk actual race distance yet ignore that the 2008 race was one of the slowest races in FL history. You also ignore that over 5k Baxter beat the best ever high school distance runner last year (a girl who ran 15:45 as a workout) and Ephraimson took down the NCAA runner up. Never have credentials like that lined up against each other. (Still think '81 might be a faster field though.)

You bring up excellent points. However in 2008, we had (to the best of my knowledge) the only girl who had, up until that point, run sub-10 in the 2 mile as a junior plus was an Olympic Trials finalist. On top of that, we had two girls who had BEATEN her in a championship race. Those are pretty impressive credentials, three returning national champions.

The fact that it was a 'slow-ish' winning time means nothing. Tactics, conditions, all play a factor (look at last year's winning time at NXN.)