Think of Jakob's potential best times from 1500 to 5k as a parabola. The 3k is the vertex because the 3k is his best event. These are the points of his parabola using the scoring tables.
The 5000 would be the same level as the 1500. A 1292 score is 12:38. That is what he would have run.
It’s not a parabola because it tapers off significantly less to the right than it does to the left. He is much better at the 5000m than at the 1500m. If anything he is probably equivalently good over 1500m and 10,000m, given his dominating record at cross country against Europe’s best 10k guys.
I usually agree with you but I don't here. This is just my opinion of course. But we all said this before the 3000. No way he breaks the WR. 7:21-7:22 at the absolute best. He focuses too much on the 1500. Etc, etc, blah blah blah. Nobody on this site gave him a 1% chance of running the WR. Then guess what? He OBLITERATED it, when it was 80 degrees, windy, and humid. Not only that, he obliterates 12:36-12:45 guys in WC races by absolutely destroying them the last 600. It's not bc of his leg speed, it's because he has less lactate with 600m to go in those races, running AT THE SAME PACE. He has a higher LT than 12:36-12:45 guys. He runs 7:17.55 in the 3k for gods sakes, but he can't set a WR in the 5k? The 3k and 5k correlate very, very well together. I don't see any problem with him, that day, on that day, running faster than 12:35. We can keep doing this every time he goes for a WR. The weeks leading up with no way, not a chance, and then he obliterates it. Imagine being a 3:26.73/7:17.55 guy and not being able to break 12:35.60? I can't.
We can agree to disagree, it's only my opinion too.
Regarding the 3000, were you really so bearish? After that 2 mile it was quite obvious he was going to get that 3000 mark, and even more so after that DL final in '23 where he ran 7.23 in a tactical race a day after a 3.43 mile. Don't believe me? Read this thread.
Prior to this I think we all thought that Komens mark would last forever - but a lot changed (surprisingly and for the good). 1500m runners, guys with sub 3.28.0 ability all got there with training also perfectly suited to the 3000m. The distance became more prominent off season (indoors), wavelight and race execution philosophy changed this event in particular in a huge way.
Why he (Jakob) obliterates 12.46-45 guys in slow races? You are right it's not an issue of pure leg speed. But I don't agree it's that he has less lactate in his legs with 600m to go. He just has superior anaerobic capacity and power that he can tap into as a 3.26/3.43/7.17 guy that nobody else does and because the races have been so slow through 3000m (he's never gone through even close to under 8min in any of his wins), the whole field is way under their thresholds and if you want to then make it a mile race, well who is winning that? The 3.26/3.43 guy or the field? He doesn't have less lactate at 3400m than Gebrhiwet or Aregawi - he just has so much more anaerobic power to use from that point forwards.
But fine to disagree on this one. Unfortunately it seems like we might never find out what his potential was either way - especially at his absolute best. Add this the lore of "but what if" track and field debates for the rest of time (what if Ovett never ran into the rail?, what if Kipketer hadn't gone through in 48.3 in Zurich '97 and instead gone 49.0? what if Jakob had run a 5000m at the end of 2024?)
I don't remember a ton of people saying sub 7:20 was impossible for Jakob before he did it. Looking back, most people thought he would. He beats the 12:45 guys because he's a 3:26 guy running at 13:20 pace until the last 400m. I think he can go faster than 12:45, but I don't think you know ball based on the reason's you've given.
He does so because of lactate. Runner A: 100 mpw, double threshold, 1500 PR in 3:26. Runner B: 100 mpw, double threshold, 1500 PR in 3:28. Runner A wins every single time in a 5000 because he produces less lactate at the same velocity as Runner B, in any race longer than 1500. Any slower pace is easier for him. This isn't rocket science. I don't understand why more people just don't understand this. This is well understood outside the US. The US coaches for some reason want some other explanation or some other shortcut/reasoning.
Ok then why doesn’t Jakob hold every record from 5000m-Marathon then? It’s not as simple as that.
I don't remember a ton of people saying sub 7:20 was impossible for Jakob before he did it. Looking back, most people thought he would. He beats the 12:45 guys because he's a 3:26 guy running at 13:20 pace until the last 400m. I think he can go faster than 12:45, but I don't think you know ball based on the reason's you've given.
He does so because of lactate. Runner A: 100 mpw, double threshold, 1500 PR in 3:26. Runner B: 100 mpw, double threshold, 1500 PR in 3:28. Runner A wins every single time in a 5000 because he produces less lactate at the same velocity as Runner B, in any race longer than 1500. Any slower pace is easier for him. This isn't rocket science. I don't understand why more people just don't understand this. This is well understood outside the US. The US coaches for some reason want some other explanation or some other shortcut/reasoning.
Where are you getting any of that from? There are tons of instances of slower 1500m runners being better at 5k despite similar training. Nick Willis for example was a 3:29 guy doing over 100 miles per week at times and was not an exceptional 5k runner.
He does so because of lactate. Runner A: 100 mpw, double threshold, 1500 PR in 3:26. Runner B: 100 mpw, double threshold, 1500 PR in 3:28. Runner A wins every single time in a 5000 because he produces less lactate at the same velocity as Runner B, in any race longer than 1500. Any slower pace is easier for him. This isn't rocket science. I don't understand why more people just don't understand this. This is well understood outside the US. The US coaches for some reason want some other explanation or some other shortcut/reasoning.
Ok then why doesn’t Jakob hold every record from 5000m-Marathon then? It’s not as simple as that.
What? Maybe because he hasn't tried? The hell you babbling about? Has he ever declared he's going for a WR 5k to the marathon? No. But let's do a history lesson here. Remember all the WR's he DID declare he was going to get? Guess how many he missed? None!
He does so because of lactate. Runner A: 100 mpw, double threshold, 1500 PR in 3:26. Runner B: 100 mpw, double threshold, 1500 PR in 3:28. Runner A wins every single time in a 5000 because he produces less lactate at the same velocity as Runner B, in any race longer than 1500. Any slower pace is easier for him. This isn't rocket science. I don't understand why more people just don't understand this. This is well understood outside the US. The US coaches for some reason want some other explanation or some other shortcut/reasoning.
Ok then why doesn’t Jakob hold every record from 5000m-Marathon then? It’s not as simple as that.
I'm getting the WR in the 2k - did it. I'm getting the WR in the 2 mile - did it. I'm getting the WR in the 3000 - did it. I'm getting the indoor mile WR - did it. He made no other claims on WR's. But when he did, guess what happend? He got all of them. The stupidity you ppl post on here has no end in sight.
Ok then why doesn’t Jakob hold every record from 5000m-Marathon then? It’s not as simple as that.
I'm getting the WR in the 2k - did it. I'm getting the WR in the 2 mile - did it. I'm getting the WR in the 3000 - did it. I'm getting the indoor mile WR - did it. He made no other claims on WR's. But when he did, guess what happend? He got all of them. The stupidity you ppl post on here has no end in sight.
I mean, that makes sense for someone most naturally suited for ~2.5k distance. It doesn't mean he can just go out and run 1:59 for the marathon.
I think he would have/and will break the 5000m WR. Almgren was training with Jakob during the spring of 2025 and mentioned the following in a podcast: - Jakob would have run a WR at Bislett with decent conditions. I was convinced of that when we were in Sierra. He could have opened at 7:40 for 3000m without any problems and then closed the last 2000m in 4:54.
I think Jakob’s best event lies somewhere between 3000-5000m. Maybe it’s actually 5000m. It’s extremely clear at this point that his best event is not the 1500m. It’s the event he has run the most times yet he is still quite a bit away from the WR. There are also guys who have never trained as much as Ingebrigtsen or who are younger who are running in the 3:27’s despite that taking years for Jakob. It’s not the event that he is most talented for despite being so good at it. Jakob has run the 3k (and 2 Miles) four times in “recent” years. In 2020 he ran about 7:27 in a race against Kiplimo and funnily enough Kiplimo beat him which goes against the narrative here that the guy with the better speed (1500) will prevail over the HM guy. He didn’t run it again until 2023 where he ran 7:54.10 over two miles which is equivalent to 7:18-7:19 or so for 3000m. In between that time frame, he ran 12:48 in a poorly paced race for him a year after the 7:27 where he had to run lots of wide bends and some leading alone to reattach to the leaders. That is almost equivalent to 7:27 if we go off the points table and he seemed to be at relatively the same level in 2020 and 2021. Ok, we also got Jakob running a 3k at Pre in 2023 where he lead from about 4 laps out after Prakel dropped off at 1400m. He didn’t get much drafting after that point and honestly he didn’t get much drafting at all as most of the time the pacers were to far ahead. Still though he closed in 2:24 with a 54 s last lap and 12.8 final 100m to beat Kejelcha. You just can’t argue against the fact that Jakob has a huge gap over these guys running in the high to mid 12:30’s (Kejelcha, Aregawi, Barega, Gebriwhet). Sure, it was a 3000m race but he is virtually pace making them and still beating them. Same story for the 3000m in Silesia, dominates Aregawi and Kejelcha and closes in 2:22 mid for 7:17.55.
So just 4 attempts (really only 2 since that two mile was better) and he is already a WR holder over 3k. He also dominated everyone in the 5000m in 2023/2024. Before you guys talk about how they were jog fests, let me remind you about this thread: https://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=13798487
His final 3k was consistently the fastest over anyone in history, while also holding the fastest final 400m in history at a global championship. This isn’t a final 400m kick it’s a burnup starting from 3k out and he still prevails. All that to say, Jakob absolutely is capable of the 5000m WR and deserves to be on the top of the all time list. 12:38 is too conservative.
Yeah, Jakob doesn't even like the 5,000. He only runs it to win a second medal after his primary event. If the 5,000 came first in the schedule he wouldn't run it at all.
I think Jakob’s best event lies somewhere between 3000-5000m. Maybe it’s actually 5000m. It’s extremely clear at this point that his best event is not the 1500m. It’s the event he has run the most times yet he is still quite a bit away from the WR. top of the all time list. 12:38 is too conservative.
His best event is clearly the indoor mile.. serious it is hair splitting if you prefer 327, 344 or 718. They are all in the half dozen best in their event.
What is clear is Jacob isn't a good championship 1500m guy....
He does so because of lactate. Runner A: 100 mpw, double threshold, 1500 PR in 3:26. Runner B: 100 mpw, double threshold, 1500 PR in 3:28. Runner A wins every single time in a 5000 because he produces less lactate at the same velocity as Runner B, in any race longer than 1500. Any slower pace is easier for him. This isn't rocket science. I don't understand why more people just don't understand this. This is well understood outside the US. The US coaches for some reason want some other explanation or some other shortcut/reasoning.
Where are you getting any of that from? There are tons of instances of slower 1500m runners being better at 5k despite similar training. Nick Willis for example was a 3:29 guy doing over 100 miles per week at times and was not an exceptional 5k runner.
Yeah I have to agree it's not that simple.
In a simple sense if every elite runner had the exact same physiology the Runner A v Runner B concept would be true but there is so much more it than that. And a threshold is a function of speed vs duration where each athlete has a profile which is basically a series of data points that tells them how long they can go at a certain speed before they cross their threshold. Its "connecting the dots" of those data points gives them insight into what speed they can run in a race to a certain point before they then need to rely on their anaerobic capacity/reserves to get to the finish line while hydrogen is accumulating in their muscles. That's why wavelight is so insanely effective for Jakob in particular - because it's what he's been testing since he was a junior athlete.
He knows how fast he can run to not be over his threshold at 1200m in a 1500m race, how fast he can run to hit 1600m in a 2000m, 2600m in a 3000m etc etc etc. That what determines the wavelight speed.
And while there might be intersection points for certain athletes and distances vs their peers, nobodies "chart" or threshold "graph" is the same, just like their anaerobic power and capacities aren't the same. This explains your Nick Willis example. His sweet spot where his physical attributes lined up best vs his peers was the 1500m/mile.
It’s not a parabola because it tapers off significantly less to the right than it does to the left. He is much better at the 5000m than at the 1500m. If anything he is probably equivalently good over 1500m and 10,000m,given his dominating record at cross country against Europe’s best 10k guys.
We have ZERO proof of what is in bold. We have proof that he's much better at winning 5000s than he is winning 1500s. Yes. I mean 100%. Like he can't win a championship 1500 but he can't lose a championship 5000.
But we do not know how good he is at running a fast 5000 as he's never really done it. AND That Florence race is a great one to watch. I remember being STUNNED and disappointed when he got gapped mid-race and thinking, "Wait I thought this guy was supposed to be an aerobic monster." THen he won it.
But some are saying that proves he's great at running fast at 5000. Not me. It shows he's great at running even pace at 12:55 pace and then kicking. Totally different than being on the edge from step #1.
If we are looking for candidates to be the first to break 12:30, I'd have him at the top of the list,but we do not know that he can do it. I mean it reminds me of all the Mo Farah fans who acted like he could run super fast if he wanted. I was like, "Ok, why hasn't he done it?"
And if he's so great naturally at 10,000, why did he suck at 13.1?
I think Jakob’s best event lies somewhere between 3000-5000m. Maybe it’s actually 5000m.
So again this is just an opinion thread, so all good - but I struggle with the logic as to how you've got here (respectfully). Let's think about this.
If his best event is the 5000m, then it's quite logical that the events either side of that distance he would show extremely high level of competence at too.
For example Josh Kerr - his best event is the 1500m right? So either side of his 3.27 level he's run 1.45.01 (GST, in May so he's easily capable of 1.44.3/4) and an 8min two mile which probably means he has 7.26 3000m potential. 1.44.3, 3.27.8, 7.26.0 seems pretty logical right, and it's biased to the 3000m end which will also be common depending on the athlete.
If Jakobs best event is the 5000m, that means we have a 7.17.55 3000m, his 5000m "potential" and then his 10000m. Well first problem is that we have no idea of the 10000m (other than a 27min27 effort in his infamous HM debut). But for the 5000m to be his best event, and even if he's biased more to the 3000m, he'd probably need to be a 26.15 guy and if the 5000m is better than his 3000m then we are assuming he's a 12.28/29 runner?
So for the 5000m to be his best event he's a 3.26.7, 7.17.5, 12.28, 26.15 runner? Uh, no, sorry I don't see that at all.
What's more likely is that the 3000m is actually his best event in the same way it was Komens, but more biased to the 1500m/mile side. I am a bit surprised people are down on his 1500m given he is one of only 3 (4*) people to ever run under 3.27 and if we are really honest there is a good chance (not 100% but a good one) that for certain reasons it's the WR. I really don't get where this notion he's a pure distance runner masquerading as a miler comes from. But in the event the 3000m matches up best for him we are then looking at 3.26.7, 7.17.5 and if his 5000m was at the same level as his 1500m that would put him right about 12.37.5.
3.26.7, 7.17.5 and 12.37.5 (even 12.37.5 to just sub 12.40) feels a lot more logical than 7.17.5, 12.28 and 26.15, but that's just me.
And touching on Rojos point regarding how he has destroyed guys like Gebrhiwet, Kejelcha, Fisher, Aregawi in championship races. That doesn't automatically translate to him destroying in all styles of 5000m race. For example on the other end of the spectrum, if they ran a 5000m at 4min/km pace until the final 400m, even as the fastest 1500m runner by a mile, would you think he was a lock to win that race? So if it's not the case on that end of the spectrum it doesn't mean it's the case at the other.