Official Jorgensen Marathon debut thread

dreamw0rld wrote:

So who thinks Jorgensen is either going to DNF or bonk massively the last 20K?

16 mile longest run, only 50 miles a week.

I don't think long runs matter as much for a triathlete who probably does 4-5 hr block workouts including biking and swimming.

2:29 - mark it down

disgraceful_admin wrote:

dreamw0rld wrote:

So who thinks Jorgensen is either going to DNF or bonk massively the last 20K?

16 mile longest run, only 50 miles a week.

I don't think long runs matter as much for a triathlete who probably does 4-5 hr block workouts including biking and swimming.

Thank you... These geniuses seem to forget that 50 miles is IN ADDITION to the ton of aerobic she does cycling and swimming... every week....

GWENGOES wrote:

2:29 - mark it down

Agree! My guess as well. She is super quick in her tri's, and that is AFTER swimming and biking. Ever bike and then go run? Jello legs. If she really does treat it as a fun run then I say 2:35.

2:33-2:34 if she really races, 2:35-2:39 if it's a "fun run".

The cycling and swimming hours will be of limited use once her legs have been pounding the pavement for 20 miles.

Thinks this is on the money. I'm gonna split the difference and say 2:36. Which is still an exceptional time for her first NYCM on her training.

knox harrington wrote:

2:33-2:34 if she really races, 2:35-2:39 if it's a "fun run".

The cycling and swimming hours will be of limited use once her legs have been pounding the pavement for 20 miles.

Bet a guy a case of beer that she'll be under 2:37:30. Admittedly when I made the bet I didn't realize how intense the triathlon she did last weekend was.

dog day autumn wrote:

I remember when Grete Waitz thought she could jump into New York never having run over 12. We saw how that worked out for her.

Waitz was awesome.

A vague point of reference: German triathlete Anne Haug (11th at the 2012 Olympics, 36th at the 2016 Olympics) made her marathon debut in Frankfurt last weekend and ran 2:36:13

She is a beast....

I have less of a motor than her and ran 2;36 in NYC...

I barely ran 40mpw longest run was16mi.

She'll run 2:30-2:33 maybe a hair faster... not slower

GWENGOES wrote:

2:29 - mark it down

Exactly. That's the women's equivalent for a men's 2:11. Good choice. Her training volume wise is like Kawauchi's. Kawauchi on average does 2:11. He does not taper either.

2:29. Agree 100%

Mid 2:30's. 2:33-2:35. That's damned good in NYC.

She isn't running sub 2:30 in her debut. Though I believe she will later.

...but the roads are supposed to be harsh on the legs. I also don't think the cycling/swimming prepares the legs enough for that last 10k.

She's legit, do doubt, but I don't see her breaking 2:40 given her lack of running volume and racing just week prior.

To the NYC runner that said he ran 2:36 off only 40mpw and max long 16mi:

- how long have you've been running, how many miles have you run in the past and what kind of race times you have going in? I've seen decent sub 32 10k guys try pull off 6 min pace just off their normal training without putting real long distance work and blow up hard the 2nd half so good for you if you managed to do it.

also there's supposed to be a decent 10-20mph headwind Sunday. Is she starting with the pro women, or back with the sub-elites? That will make a big difference too.

These elites are beasts... they have insane motors....I don't know Gwen... but watching her at the Olympics she looks so freaking strong.

Just my two cents.... my experience with the 2:36 on 40 miles per week. I come off of pretty large volume of road biking for many years so overall mentally and physically ....but the duration wasn't that stressful. I hadn't run a marathon in almost 20 years ...and I was 39 years old. I had a pretty big motor...but six minute miles ....Were about as fast as my legs could go... but the workload was sustainable. I maybe barely could've broken 16 minutes in an all out 5k..... but that being said I probably could have also run a 32-33...minute 10k at the same effort as the 16 minute 5K ... In NYC...i hit the half at 1:15 and faded to a 2:36:00 in 2014 NYC' on a very windy day. Consciously at about mile 16 I shut it down pretty heavy for fear of completely cracking I was starting to feel twinges in tweaks and didn't want to have to walk... I could've run any faster but I'm not Gwen ...

*same day 2014....My running partner... I swear came off of a very heavy Nordic skiing fitness and some silly low running mileage maybe 20 or 30 miles a week I swear you can look up his strava...Billy Demong....but like Gwen...he has an amazing motor... it was crazy he cruised through 1:15 at the half and only faded to 2:33... I can't say for sure but he would've been really close to breaking 2:30, had it not been feroishly windy. These elite athletes have such massive motors I wouldn't be surprised if she breaks 2:30 or is it least super close plus or -1 minute... my guess 2:31.

Official guess on my part is 2:38:47.

Obviously that's much slower than she's capable of. But she's made several comments that indicate she's going to go out much slower than I think a lot of people around here are anticipating. She also said she was very sore after the 10 mile a few weeks ago and that she's doing this for "fun". I know she's extremely competitive, but I don't think she has any interest in a death march the last 6-8 miles. Even when she's feeling great hitting the half at 1:19ish she's too smart to start pushing.

All that being said, I hope I'm wrong and she gets crazy and heads out with the leaders, but I just don't see it happening.

She will fade pretty hard at the 19 mile mark. She will still manage to run 2:41:05 though.

Based on their US 10mi performances, she'll sit on Sara Hall for 30K and then see what she has left. 2:29 is the best guess.

2:17 FTW!

Have to admit I don't really know who this woman is.

Is 2:30 good enough for her to consider quitting tri's?

Is there a good career projection or is she past her "marathon prime"?