Based on today, what chance does Rupp have in the Rio Marathon?

What marathon is going on in Rio?

Wow lol wrote:

Incredible runs all around today. Kipchoge, Biwott, Bekele with a fine return, and many others. And of course some that ran Boston as well. Based on that what kind of chance is Rupp legitimately going to have in Rio. We have yet to see Kipchoge race a tactical marathon... Does that sort of race still favor him. Or could a slower pace not suit him and leave him very vulnerable. There's no pacemakers at the Olympics. Predictions for the race and Rupp's finish.

Unless he has the race of his life, he is going to struggle big time in Rio in the marathon. He'll be lucky to finish in the top 10 and sub 2:10.

His brother Mobot is a far better athlete and can't cut it with the big guns over 26.2.

So long as he has a hole in his ass, he ain't gonna medal dawg. End of story.

qualified answer wrote:

Primo Numero Uno wrote:

First of all I didn't say Rupp will definitely be top 5, I said he definitely can be top 5..

"Rupp can definately be top 5. I'd say 33% top 3."

Actually you made a strong top 3 claim (33%) immediately after top 5's can definitely. Are you qualifying the top 5 claim now? 50%, 75% 99%???? Regardless, you cannot claim anything less than 33% chance top 5.

Man some people on this board have a lot of time on their hands and really try to twist words. Since apparently you want to say I'm backtracking I'll clarify. I do indeed think Rupp has a 1/3 chance at medaling so if for all you math experts out there yes I think there is at least a 33% he will be top 5. And as I later said I think there is at least a 50% chance he is top ten. All given he goes in healthy. Is that all clear enough or do I need to restate a third time. I never said he would definitely be top 5. There's way to high of the "shit happens" factor in the marathon to say that.

But I think rupp will be one of the 10 best guys on the starting line. And with Salazar pulling the strings I like his chances to outperform some guys at or above his level given the nature of how Olympic marathons play out weather and tactically speaking.

You fail understand that 33% chance of top 3 cannot equal 33% top 5. Odds do not work that way.

qualified answer wrote:

You fail understand that 33% chance of top 3 cannot equal 33% top 5. Odds do not work that way.

And you failed to read that I said 33% of top 3 and a 33% or greater chance of top 5. Trust me odds do work that way, I unlike you can read and perform basic math at a first grade level.

Beijing?

2008 marathon wrote:

Beijing?

Kebede was third in 2:10 exactly with Merga and others close behind.

Last weeks Possible Rio Starter list from the excellent site---

http://road-to-rio.com/

1 Eliud Kipchoge KEN 2:04:00 Berlin (GER) 27.09.2015 TFP,Q

2 Tesfaye Abera ETH 2:04:24 Dubai (UAE) 22.01.2016 TFP,Q

3 Hayle Lemi ETH 2:04:33 Dubai (UAE) 22.01.2016 TFP,Q

4 Tsegaye Mekonnen ETH 2:04:46 Dubai (UAE) 22.01.2016 TFP,Q

5 Wilson Kipsang KEN 2:04:47 London (GBR) 26.04.2015 TFP,Q

6 Wilson Loyanai KEN 2:05:13 Seoul (KOR) 20.03.2016 TFP,Q

7 Kaan Kigen Özbilen TUR 2:06:10 Seoul (KOR) 20.03.2016 TFP,Q

8 Stephen Kiprotich UGA 2:06:33 Tokyo (JPN) 22.02.2015 TFP,Q

9 Tadesse Abraham SUI 2:06:40 Seoul (KOR) 20.03.2016 TFP,Q

10 Shumi Dechasa BRN 2:07:20 Tokyo (JPN) 22.02.2015 TFP,Q

Masato Imai JPN 2:07:39 Tokyo (JPN) 22.02.2015 nS,TFP,Q

11 Stephen Mokoka RSA 2:07:40 Shanghai (CHN) 08.11.2015 TFP,Q

12 Ghirmay Ghebreslassie ERI 2:07:47 Hamburg (GER) 26.04.2015 TFP,Q

13 Amanuel Mesel ERI 2:08:18 Warszawa (POL) 26.04.2015 TFP,Q

14 Arne Gabius GER 2:08:33 Frankfurt (GER) 25.10.2015 TFP,Q

15 Satoru Sasaki JPN 2:08:56 Fukuoka (JPN) 06.12.2015 S,TFP,Q

16 Oleksandr Sitkovskyy UKR 2:09:11 Marrakech (MAR) 25.01.2015 Q

Hiroaki Sano JPN 2:09:12 Tokyo (JPN) 22.02.2015 nS,TFP,Q

17 Hisanori Kitajima JPN 2:09:16 Otsu (JPN) 06.03.2016 S,TFP,Q

17 Tewelde Estifanos ERI 2:09:16 Frankfurt (GER) 25.10.2015 TFP,Q

19 Alphonce Felix TAN 2:09:19 Otsu (JPN) 06.03.2016 TFP,Q

Koji Gokaya JPN 2:09:21 Tokyo (JPN) 22.02.2015 nS,TFP,Q

20 Suehiro Ishikawa JPN 2:09:25 Otsu (JPN) 06.03.2016 S,TFP,Q

21 Javier Guerra ESP 2:09:33 London (GBR) 26.04.2015

Thedirty wrote:

Sub 210 May be good for a medal. Seriously. When was the last time a sub 210 at the olympics did not medal? Ever?

The answer to the question above is never.

The answer to original question is that Rupp has the same chance he had yesterday. He medals if the real "Galen Rupp" shows up and the usual percentage of East Africans does not.

Another question. Does the 2016 Rupp beat the 2012 Kiprotich?

This list does not indicate who each nation WILL send it's sorted by 3 shortest time per nation and does not indicate selections that any nation might have announced or their OG trials finishes.

I believe Rupp vs 2012 Kiprotich would have been close. They are both fantastic championship racers. However I'd have to with Rupp, only because I think his finish will translate nicely from the track to the roads.

The London games marathon ended up being disappointing. Both Kenya and Ethiopia made some questionable selections for their teams.

Then Kipsang ran like a madman early on. If he had run smarter I think he would have easily won. Not many guys could have ran that stupid fast early pace he did when he ditched the field for a while and still hung on for a medal.

With Kipchoge's pedigree and experience I can't see him making that same mistake this time around. But the London games is the perfect example of you put all these great marathoners out there in a championship setting and look what happens, no one expected Kiprotich to win, or Meb to get 4th. Just look at what at last years world championships same thing.

Primo Numero Uno wrote:

A tactical race especially if its hot conditions favors Rupp because you know Salazar will have him ready for those conditions. There's no reason to think Rupp is not capable of a 2:06 or even a 2:05 on a fast course.

Ridiculous.

Primo Numero Uno wrote:

qualified answer wrote:

You fail understand that 33% chance of top 3 cannot equal 33% top 5. Odds do not work that way.

And you failed to read that I said 33% of top 3 and a 33% or greater chance of top 5. Trust me odds do work that way, I unlike you can read and perform basic math at a first grade level.

You still fail, epically. Using your poor logic would mean X% of being #3, X% #4, and X% #5. X being the same in ever case as the minimum that YOU established. Odds don't work that way you manipulated them to work.

Primo Numero Uno wrote:

....

But I think rupp will be one of the 10 best guys on the starting line. ....

Isn't that a big step down though?

He won a silver in 2012 in the 10000m. I'd hope he's gotten better since then, and improved his chances. Aiming to be one of the 10 best guys on the starting line is a poor standard for a guy who won a silver in his chosen event last OG.

Jgtjghhjggjhhfgghf wrote:

The number of blow ups at the Olympics surprises me every single time...

Except they're not actually 'blow-ups', they are "no $, so if I can't medal lets jog from here".

Rupp will definitely medal. Unlikely to get gold.

Solid 5th place finish, bronze in 2020