Alana Hadley Predictions NYC Marathon

I'm not the coach, but based on that workout and comments by the athlete, if I was coach, here's my schedule until race day. Hard taper and rest. Check iron levels just in case.

Wednesday: 0 miles

Thursday: 5 miles easy.

Friday: 0 miles. Lots of sleep.

Saturday: 3 mile shakeout run with strides.

I usually cough like crazy when I have a slight cold.

lots of collegiate athletes run 120 mpw, so she's not some oddity

however, at 18 years old and with her history, i don't doubt that she is overtraining and probably is fatigued. she seems to think that because her workouts have been faster (probably forced) she will run a faster marathon. but we all know it doesn't work like that

2:36:55

reed wrote:

lots of collegiate athletes run 120 mpw, so she's not some oddity

How many collegiate female athletes are running that much milage? The highest I've heard of is around 80mpw. If she's running that much at that age im surprised she's not constantly injured.

reed wrote:

lots of collegiate athletes run 120 mpw, so she's not some oddity

however, at 18 years old and with her history, i don't doubt that she is overtraining and probably is fatigued. she seems to think that because her workouts have been faster (probably forced) she will run a faster marathon. but we all know it doesn't work like that

Collegiate women who run 120 miles a week? Name them. Bonus: how many are 18 years old?

Central Park will win wrote:

Bbbbbkkkklllll wrote:

2:43 or DNF

More interested in Thweatt's debut. 2:28 to 2:32. 2:26 not out of reach.

Agree with this on Alana, but she'll likely get only 50% of her appearance fee if she DNFs.

Thweatt won't break 2:30 in her debut at NYC.

Appearance fee? When do 2:37 runners get appearance fees? Is there a link to this because I have a difficult time believing she was given anything but entry and hotel.

I predict, it will be a great and fun experience for her, good luck to her.

Hype around her seems a little unwarranted and is only based on her age and the fact that she chose not to compete at the high school 5K level (thanks Flo). For comparison, would Allie Ostrander (same age?) be able to beat Alana at NYC if she had trained specifically for a marathon the last year?

I hope Alana runs great on Sunday! Also hope she eventually lives up to the unnecessary early hype thrown in her direction.

Alana Hadley Predictions NYC wrote:

I just watched Flotrack's video about her workout. Predictions on how she'll do in NYC? Will she finish?

Sorry, but that was a terrible workout 10 days out from a marathon. If she has trouble holding marathon pace for 5 miles -- with 3 minutes of recovery even -- then she's in big trouble for NYC. They certainly teed up their excuse though: that "cold" she's allegedly recovering from. The reality is probably overtraining, burnout, and not having her head in the game.

I hope she proves me wrong though.

Gheez that's depressing to watch.

DNF or 2:52 or DNS (in decereasing order of likelihood)

2:46:33 wrote:

[quote]Central Park will win wrote:

Appearance fee? When do 2:37 runners get appearance fees? Is there a link to this because I have a difficult time believing she was given anything but entry and hotel.

2:38 marathoner, done with an entourage of men on a flat course. NYC will pay appearance fees for someone like her since most are opting not to run it with the Trials around the corner. She's getting at least $2500 (plus hotel, travel, place bonuses), which will be axed by 50% if she DNFs.

The video was painful to watch. The spring in her legs she had as a youngster is gone.

Central Park will win wrote:

2:46:33 wrote:

[quote]Central Park will win wrote:

Appearance fee? When do 2:37 runners get appearance fees? Is there a link to this because I have a difficult time believing she was given anything but entry and hotel.

2:38 marathoner, done with an entourage of men on a flat course. NYC will pay appearance fees for someone like her since most are opting not to run it with the Trials around the corner. She's getting at least $2500 (plus hotel, travel, place bonuses), which will be axed by 50% if she DNFs.

The video was painful to watch. The spring in her legs she had as a youngster is gone.

$2500 on top of hotel & travel?!? That is absurd for someone without the A standard and I know female runners with faster times that were NOT given that $$ at NYCM. That explains why she would run a marathon so close to the Trials.

I wonder how she can miss so many classes. Where I go to college if you miss more than 2 class periods, for any reason (NCAA sports particpation, illness, death in family, etc) your grade is significantly reduced. Also, does anyone else find it odd that Mark drives all the way to UNC to get her, take her back home to run, and then bring her back? Is she incapable of not seeing her parents or running by herself?

2:46:33 wrote:

$2500 on top of hotel & travel?!? That is absurd for someone without the A standard and I know female runners with faster times that were NOT given that $$ at NYCM. That explains why she would run a marathon so close to the Trials.

Faster times in the marathon? I find this hard to believe. Any other year may be different with appearance fees.

I'm not usually one to insist that all of our promising young runners need to be in the NCAA system.

But after watching that video....if anyone needs to get on the track and do some hurdle drills, its this girl...

Central Park will win wrote:

Bbbbbkkkklllll wrote:

2:43 or DNF

More interested in Thweatt's debut. 2:28 to 2:32. 2:26 not out of reach.

Agree with this on Alana, but she'll likely get only 50% of her appearance fee if she DNFs.

Thweatt won't break 2:30 in her debut at NYC.

PR comparison Thweat to Hadley

5K 15:05 to 16:51

10K 32:15 to 34:59

HM 1:11 to 1:16

Here's a reasonable SWAG:

50-50 (1:1) that Thweatt goes sub 2:30

75-25 (3:1) that Hadley is 10 minutes or more behind at the end

Bbbbbkkkklllll wrote:

PR comparison Thweat to Hadley

5K 15:05 to 16:51

10K 32:15 to 34:59

HM 1:11 to 1:16

Here's a reasonable SWAG:

50-50 (1:1) that Thweatt goes sub 2:30

75-25 (3:1) that Hadley is 10 minutes or more behind at the end

Similarly matched women as Thweatt haven't broken 2:30 at NYC. Double her HM and add 10-12 minutes to get a prediction of what she'll run.