2015 Wanamaker Mile Fields Announced -- Centro vs. Lagat vs. Cheserek; Rowbury vs. Cain

Have to disagree with you on this one.

First, as you point out, it's February. In a WC year. Not only are the top guys not in top shape, but if they/their coaches are doing it right, they're not anywhere near top shape, at least not in terms of racing a mile.

Second, how impressive a race performance is cannot be separated from how important that race is. With all due respect to the Milrose Games and the Wanamaker Mile, these are indoor season races in a WC year. Just not that big a deal in the long term scheme of things.

Third, and probably most important, there are few races in our sport (setting aside WC and OG) more significant, more challenging, and more prepared and peaked for by more athletes than NCAA XC. If he fulfills his promise and potential, Cheserek will eventually eclipse winning NCAA XC. But he certainly won't do it on an indoor track.

Didn't O'Sullivan break the masters mile record at MSG...that track was like 11.5 laps to the mile and wasn't particularly fast. Not really apples to apples for Lagat to take down that record at the Armory.

As a 40 year old male, I'm interested to see how Lagat does.

Cheserek will establish himself as the future "best track runner in the world."

sp2 wrote:

As I look at the exact fraction, and think about it a little more, it's really nothing special.

Probably more like 3:56-ish, I think.

Lawi's run was a lot better. (And Cam's double-run was GIGANTICALLY better.)

You are GD high if you think that 2:49.4 is only worth 3:56.

Even in your fantasy world where that's the equivalent, Lalang's time would convert to about a 3:53 mid, so about 2.5 seconds difference, more than explained by his having people to chase down vs. Centro running solo.

Sincerely,

Someone who wants Lawi to win but fully aware he will have his hands full

Centro over Lawi with Cheserek third and Willis fourth, Lagat 5th in a huge new master's mile record. I can't see this going 3:50. That is really fast and Centro's not run under 3:50 outdoors (but he did chase many to a 3:31 1500m). 3:51-52 should be the winning time if there is a rabbit. Lawi actually could be that rabbit, because he likes to push the pace. That could make for the fast time.

The one thing I'm surprised that no one has stated yet, is that the winner of this race will largely be dictated by how good of a job the pacers do. With such a loaded field, for the sake of safety, this race needs to go out at an honest pace. With that being said, I think that someone like Willis will have a solid go at it. Centro and Lalang I would expect to be towards the front of the pack regardless of pace.

A fast pace would weed out all those 3:53/4 guys in the middle of the pack

Oh and on the women's side, nobody is touching Rowbury. Race for second will be exciting though

Who is Johnny Gregorek blowing to get into these races? He'll be lucky to qualify for NCAA's.

It looks like a NOP sweep from the women.

1. Rowbury

2/3. Moser & Hasay in some order.

James Naismith Li wrote:

sp2 wrote:

As I look at the exact fraction, and think about it a little more, it's really nothing special.

Probably more like 3:56-ish, I think.

Lawi's run was a lot better. (And Cam's double-run was GIGANTICALLY better.)

You are GD high if you think that 2:49.4 is only worth 3:56.

Even in your fantasy world where that's the equivalent, Lalang's time would convert to about a 3:53 mid, so about 2.5 seconds difference, more than explained by his having people to chase down vs. Centro running solo.

Sincerely,

Someone who wants Lawi to win but fully aware he will have his hands full

Wow. "You are GD high." Impressive reasoning. Right on the intellectual plane of the average LR-er; I'll give you that.

So what do YOU think the answer is, Einstein?

I've found estimates that range from 3:53-lo to almost 3:57.

Why don't you enlighten everyone, oh Master.

Yes, I think a 3:52.3 with a running start is more impressive than a 249.5 without, though I'm not too sure by how much.

(And yes, I'm totally ignoring 'chasing people down' and other totally unquantifiable nonsense. As I'm ignoring that Centro had someone to draft on perfectly for the first 600, etc.)

I think it is worth 3:54, and I think you are a pretentious dbag.

bigtool05 said: I like these. I would point out though that 3:55-3:56 for Lagat would smash Eamonn Coghlan's 40+ world record of 3:58.

WRs do not impress the simple-minded, young runners who post on these forums.

About the Gregorek thing---Not quite sure but maybe him being a home favorite (Columbia guy before transferring) helped him get in? His teamate Ches is here too. Not quite sure though. Hes not bad but he wouldnt even be my next choice from OREGON to be in this race (Geohegan).

Anyways a little predix:

Tactical Race:

1. Lawi

2. Centro

3. Leer

Fast Race:

1. Centro

2. Lawi

3. Casey

YUP.

But honestly have no idea almost all of these guys could win this thing. Good Luck to all anticipating it greatly.

If Lawi doesn't take the lead from the gun there better be pacemakers. I look at the field and how amazing it is, then I look for who can make it a fast race and Lawi is the only one who has a history of going from the gun. I'd imagine he leads it in about 1:56-1:57 and the race is won in 3:52-3:53. I doubt Cheserek is in his best shape right now, but last outdoors he battled lawi to a 3:36 at conference if i'm not mistaken.

Centro, Lawi, Lagat, Ches.

Leer sits in the middle/back all race and complains in the interviews that it was too hard to pass on an indoor track and he will be ready for outdoors.

runner85 wrote:

If Lawi doesn't take the lead from the gun there better be pacemakers. I look at the field and how amazing it is, then I look for who can make it a fast race and Lawi is the only one who has a history of going from the gun. I'd imagine he leads it in about 1:56-1:57 and the race is won in 3:52-3:53. I doubt Cheserek is in his best shape right now, but last outdoors he battled lawi to a 3:36 at conference if i'm not mistaken.

Centro, Lawi, Lagat, Ches.

Leer sits in the middle/back all race and complains in the interviews that it was too hard to pass on an indoor track and he will be ready for outdoors.

This last sentence is awesome. Not a competitor and whines all the time while thinking he is so charismatic

I'm hoping for Rowbury on the women's side. She just needs to replicate her 4:22 race and she would win. She could run solo and get it- I hope she does that instead of doing a tactical race.

For the mens, I don't care who wins, I just want to see someone break 3:50! The field is there, they should go for it! Don't want to see another tactical race.

On Lawi vs Cheserek, isn't it crazy to think that, the year that Lagat set the 5K AR (where he had that close race with Lawi), they both had lapped Cheserek (who ran 13:57). Since then, Cheserek is at the point where he could potentially beat them in a 5K and/or a mile. He's come a long way since then.

This is Will Leer's chance to make up for all his failures and chokes by coming out of nowhere to beat everyone.

Wait A Minute wrote:

Who is Johnny Gregorek blowing to get into these races? He'll be lucky to qualify for NCAA's.

My guess is Bruce Jenner.