I would certainly pick the field over Rupp.
Just saying that he actually has a chance.
That Pre 10,000 was a pretty good indication of what he is capable of and his current fitness.
And it's not like he is re-loading to get ready for a championship race.
But we also saw him look flat at world indoors.
Which Rupp will show up?
Rupp is mental. Only runs fast in Eugene. 13:10.
Gebremeskel, Gebrhiwet or Ndiku in a "fast" 13:03. You get 10 13:0x's for every 12:50, so don't get your hopes up.
Mo will sit and kick and breeze to easy win , you looking at 13.35
Caleb Ndiku is the man to beat right now. I say there are 8 people still in it at 13:00 pace with 600 to go, but after 200m to go it's Ndiku V. Alamirew with the field stretching out behind them. Ndiku FTW in 12:52, Galen coming up for 3rd or 4th in 12:54.
The last 2 weeks of Caleb were not the best for being at his top in Oslo :
Wed, 28.05 : Flight from Kenya to Portland, by car to Eugene
Thu, 29.05 : 40' easy
Fri, 30.05 : 30' jogging + 4 x 200m in 26" recovery about 3'
Sat, 31.05 : WINNERS PREFONTAINE IN 13:01
Sun, 1.06 : Flight to Kenya
Mon, 2.06 : 40' easy
Tue, 3.06 : 1 hr with short and easy variations of speed
Wed, 4.06 : 50' easy
Thu, 5.06 : HEATS KENYAN CHAMPIONSHIPS (2nd in 13:42.4)
Fri, 6.06 : 50' easy
Sat, 7.06 : KENYAN CHAMPIONSHIPS (2nd in 13:30.45)
Sun, 8.06 : 50' easy
Mon, 9.06 : Flight to Oslo
Tue, 10.06 : 40' easy + 3-4 x 200m in 27"
He is of sure very tired, and with limited energies.
Oslo was not in his previous plan, which in June had one competition only in Ostrava (3000m), but after winning in Eugene there was the possibility to look at winning the Diamond League, so we changed plan. Originally, we didn't think there were heats for 5000m in Nairobi, so we planned one training of medium intensity on 3.06, but at the end we had to change everything, going for easy jogging only, for recovering the tireness of the travels, more than of the competitions.
For Oslo, if everything is ok I see Ethiopian better than Kenyan. May be something better from Longosiwa and Soi, but they lost one day of competition (thinking to be directly allowed to run the final, there was some misunderstanding between AK and some of the athletes running in DL), so they didn't have proper training for the last 10 days before Oslo.
Anyway, this is another important experience for growing for Caleb, not depending on his final result, but on his feeling in this difficult situation.
Renato, what do you think Galen Rupp's chances in the oslo 5k are?
I am not convinced that the field will really go for it. I hope they do but I put higher odds on this finishing in about 12:58-13:04. No one seems to think that they are in superior form so they all back off the pace.
For some reason, Rupp has never been able to go with a really fast 5000. His PR in Eugene was the exception but even there he gutted it out in the last 400. He once was tripped in a race where he was on pace so perhaps I am not being totally fair. He may benefit from a pace that goes about 13:00 and closes faster. I am not sure why so many believe he can go 12:50. I hope he does but I will be surprised.
OK. I was bulling. I have been at Bislett 25 times or so and
seen most of the races you refer to (Clarke b4 I was born).
I still think 12.50 is unrealistic. The 5000m guys don't
seem so sharp as earlier years. Merga ran 13.41 in Morocco!
Stacked field and several sub13s, possibly. What do you expect? Jogfest, sit & kick with Alamirew and HG FTW or will they take it out hard? Where do you see Gallen Rupp? Top 3? Any chance to prove better 5k abilities than we all expect? Discuss.
People think Rupp Can run 12:50 because if any other guy like gebriwhet or gebremeskel or soi ran 8:07 for two miles indoors and then ran 26:44 for 10k outdoors we would say they are in sub 12:50 shape. It is as simple as that, personally i agree with others that it will be a 12:58-13:02 type race because these guys have been afraid to push it. Also, the kenyan trails just happened and it is early june! I think rupp will get the record but it won't be until a monaco/stockholm/zurich type of race later in the summer (not sure which one[s] of those has a 5000m. But i do see rupp running 12:51 or so later this year
Star wrote:
Why would you need to close faster than 1:57 (which is 12:11 pace) if the pace is fast?
If the last 4 laps are about 4:02 (63,62,60,57), that could put Rupp in a winning position.
I've got a job for you. See how many 5000m races you can find in the last 5 years where running 60, 57 would have won.
Stop being pedantic. It was pointed out above that the fastest race in recent memory closed in 155.7-ish.
We get it, a slow pace will require faster. If Rupp can close a 10k in 157, I'll bet he can do as much or better in a typical 5k.
Lomong will surprise the field and win with a fast last 400m. 12:55
I hope Rupp breaks the AR. He is capable of sub 12:50. With the right pacing he can do it.
shkakanakajsb wrote:
People think Rupp Can run 12:50 because if any other guy like gebriwhet or gebremeskel or soi ran 8:07 for two miles indoors and then ran 26:44 for 10k outdoors we would say they are in sub 12:50 shape.
I'll agree with that. Anyone else with similar PRs who couldn't crack 12:55? I can't think of any off the top of my head.
And to those saying not every race will close down in 60-54 or something crazy like that... we are in an unprecedented time in terms of depth. We don't have that dominant WR threat like Bekele right now (though a 3:28/26:46 Mo would certainly be in the discussion in the right race) but we have a boatload of guys who can not only run sub 13, but can do so in crazy fast finishing quarters and halves. Amazing is the new norm.
fact is... wrote:
Stop being pedantic. It was pointed out above that the fastest race in recent memory closed in 155.7-ish.
We get it, a slow pace will require faster. If Rupp can close a 10k in 157, I'll bet he can do as much or better in a typical 5k.
I think it's reasonable to ask someone to admit when they are wrong. Sorry that it bothers you so much.
Upset, gupp surprises everybody! Gupp wins with a 12:46!
HG has been running awful. I'll take Alamirew in 12:57ish.
They need to have major time bonuses for these DL events, because there is far too much sitting and kicking in the low 13s or very high 12:50s with everyone going for the prize money for the win.
Ndiku has looked awfully good and isn't overraced. His competition is incredible, so who knows? I'd love to see this go in the mid 12:40s. Salazar doesn't usually send Rupp to Europe for slow races, so he knows what the pacers and athletes are going for. An American record is definitely in the offing, depending of course on good weather and the field getting to 4600m in 11:50 or so.
jjjjjjjjj wrote:
They need to have major time bonuses for these DL events, because there is far too much sitting and kicking in the low 13s or very high 12:50s with everyone going for the prize money for the win.
Where's that money going to come from?
