Alexa Efraimson will win NXN 2013

NXNKnowitall wrote:

You heard it here first-- Alexa Efraimson is going to defeat Sarah Baxter and win NXN 2013. There hasn't been an athlete (except Mary Cain) like Alexa with such raw speed and talent.

Her WOW on Flotrack blew my mind.. Sarah Baxter has no chance with speed like that... for those that didn't see it..

http://flo.mx/1g6eKHp

.. and it was done on a grass loop

800m (3min Rest)

400m (3Min Rest) x 4 Sets

800m

2:24

65

2:25

65

2:28

64

2:25

64

2:24

I don't understand the point of that workout...a far more telling session would be 6-8 x 800 with 30 seconds rest in between.

800s designed for VO2 max and speed stimulus. Alternating 400s for speed stimulus while bumping her into VO2 max range for additional time.

4800m of work. The rests are long, but that is to reduce lactic acid build-up. The point is to push her VO2 max as low as possible without making her feel like poop.

It's brilliant, really. All 30s rests would do is slower her down and build up lactic acid and make her feel sluggish. The time for that was 2 months ago.

lol lol lol lol wrote:

NXNKnowitall wrote:

You heard it here first-- Alexa Efraimson is going to defeat Sarah Baxter and win NXN 2013. There hasn't been an athlete (except Mary Cain) like Alexa with such raw speed and talent.

Her WOW on Flotrack blew my mind.. Sarah Baxter has no chance with speed like that... for those that didn't see it..

http://flo.mx/1g6eKHp

.. and it was done on a grass loop

800m (3min Rest)

400m (3Min Rest) x 4 Sets

800m

2:24

65

2:25

65

2:28

64

2:25

64

2:24

I don't understand the point of that workout...a far more telling session would be 6-8 x 800 with 30 seconds rest in between.

I imagine it has to do with changing paces during a race.

6-8 x 800m w/ 30 seconds rest is fine if you're working on pacing yourself at a specific pace.

faster intervals, longer rest and with varying paces, implies that it isn't aimed at nearly the same thing as a short rest 6-8 x 800m workout.

That being said, it would seem to me like starting off with a 400m might have been even better - to simulate the fast start to the races before kids settle into a pace. But, I'm not nearly as good a coach as what she's got, so maybe I'm just off on that :)

fasdfadf wrote:

800s designed for VO2 max and speed stimulus. Alternating 400s for speed stimulus while bumping her into VO2 max range for additional time.

4800m of work. The rests are long, but that is to reduce lactic acid build-up. The point is to push her VO2 max as low as possible without making her feel like poop.

It's brilliant, really. All 30s rests would do is slower her down and build up lactic acid and make her feel sluggish. The time for that was 2 months ago.

It should be interesting to see how she does with the specific interval session she's going to run on Sat: 6x800 with 0 seconds rest, followed--with no rest--by an all-out 200.

That might build up lactic acid and make her feel sluggish.

Food for thought: Efraimson 2012 vs. Efraimson 2013 on courses with the exact same layouts

League Championships = 18:09 -> 17:52

Regional Championships = 17:52.0 -> 17:40.48

NXN-Northwest = 17:42.9 -> 17:27.1

I didn't include the Washington State race for a couple reasons: First, I think she let up a bit last year when she won by a large margin; second, because they changed the layout this year so it's not exactly the same.

She seems to be about 1.5% faster than last year.

At NXN last year, the % difference in time between her and Sarah Baxter was 1.5% - meaning that Alexa Efraimson, if last year's races and the same races this year were any indication, is just as good right now as Baxter was at NXN last year.

So the question is, has Sarah Baxter improved? Yes, she was breaking her own course records early in the season, but that stopped mid-season - which implies to me that she just got off to a faster start this year. Her times at Mt. SAC and Woodward were slower than the year before. I'm not saying Baxter is slower than she was, just that she hasn't been racing faster than she was last year. So, is Baxter faster than she was last year? Because to beat Efraimson (not to mention Cranny), she'll have to be.

lol lol lol lol wrote:

It should be interesting to see how she does with the specific interval session she's going to run on Sat: 6x800 with 0 seconds rest, followed--with no rest--by an all-out 200.

That might build up lactic acid and make her feel sluggish.

Point being?

fasdfadf wrote:

Point being?

Nothing beats specificity.

The mud last year may have caused a "cluster effect" among the top runners because it seemed to result in them running the first 2 miles relatively conservatively. Are there 3 mile or 5K courses one can compare among the NXN favorites?

lol lol lol lol wrote:

fasdfadf wrote:

Point being?

Nothing beats specificity.

Are you suggesting from one snapshot of her training that specificity isn't a part of Alexa's training?

I strongly disagree.

Looking at the forecast, the course is guaranteed to be frozen on Saturday. Mud will not be factor and the race will be fast. Sarah Baxter will be a non-factor. The race is between Cranny and Efraimson.

fasdfadf wrote:

lol lol lol lol wrote:

Nothing beats specificity.

Are you suggesting from one snapshot of her training that specificity isn't a part of Alexa's training?

I strongly disagree.

I hope she is doing slower repeats with very short rests as you suggest.

fasdfadf wrote:

Looking at the forecast, the course is guaranteed to be frozen on Saturday. Mud will not be factor and the race will be fast. Sarah Baxter will be a non-factor. The race is between Cranny and Efraimson.

Why do you believe Sarah Baxter will be a non-factor?

It's a question of speed. The only way Sarah Baxter can win is to break away from 1.5-2.5 miles. I don't believe she's aerobically strong enough to break the other two. She'll be eaten up in the last 800m.

5k isn't long enough to favor a strength runner up against the kind of speed the other two have. Alexa will match Sarah stride-for-stride and run her down when it matters. The only question is whether Cranny will be there as well. My guess is yes. It will be between those two.

Additionally, Baxter has no choice but to take the lead early and push the pace. She has no hope in a kicker's race, and there will be no mud to sap the kick from her competitors like last year.

I'd love to see her prove me wrong, but I'll give her 1 in 10 odds.

fasdfadf wrote:

Additionally, Baxter has no choice but to take the lead early and push the pace. She has no hope in a kicker's race, and there will be no mud to sap the kick from her competitors like last year.

I'd love to see her prove me wrong, but I'll give her 1 in 10 odds.

If there is any unknown factor, I suspect it is how well the favorites adapt to and run in the cold.

Baxter was probably more disadvantaged than many of her competitors by the mud last year; Southern California doesn't get much rain in cross-country season.

who cares about the winner? the real question is:

who will look more relaxed?

NXNKnowitall wrote:

There hasn't been an athlete (except Mary Cain) like Alexa with such raw speed and talent.

And we all know how that turned out...

I would love to see a Jr eat Baxter

lol lol lol lol wrote:The mud last year may have caused a "cluster effect" among the top runners because it seemed to result in them running the first 2 miles relatively conservatively. Are there 3 mile or 5K courses one can compare among the NXN favorites?

Not really.

The NXN-SW, NXN-NW, and CA Courses are pretty close to rounded %'s, though, so to give an idea...

NXN-NW (this year) ~ 1.0% slower than Balboa

NXN-SW (this year) ~ 1.0% faster than Balboa

CA State ~ 4.0% faster than Balboa

Which gives us... (time on far right = rough Balboa equivalent)

Girls =

1 - Cranny, Elise - 12 - Niwot CO - 17:03.8 ~ 17:14.0

1 - Alexa Efraimson - 11 - Camas WA - 17:27.1 ~ 17:16.7

1 - Sarah Baxter - 12 - Simi Valley - 16:42.7 ~ 17:22.8

2 - Makena Morley - 11 - Bigfork MT - 17:36.0 ~ 17:25.5

2 - Fiona O'Keeffe - 10 - Davis Sr. - 16:58.8 ~ 17:39.6

3 - Marissa Williams - 11 - Palisades Charter - 17:04.0 ~ 17:45.0

2 - Biles, Lucy - 11 - Herriman UT - 17:36.7 ~ 17:47.3

4 - Bethan Knights - 12 - Northwood - 17:07.3 ~ 17:48.4

5 - Anna Maxwell - 12 - S.L.V. - 17:07.8 ~ 17:48.9

3 - Ella Donaghu - 10 - Grant OR - 17:59.7 ~ 17:49.0

6 - Destiny Collins - 10 - Great Oak - 17:09.0 ~ 17:50.2

4 - Hannah Gindlesperger - 10 - Summit OR - 18:05.6 ~ 17:54.9

3 - Rainsberger, Katie - 10 - Air Force Academy CO - 17:45.4 ~ 17:56.1

7 - Sarah Robinson - 12 - Gunn - 17:15.5 ~ 17:56.9

4 - Jones, Danielle - 11 - Desert Vista AZ - 17:48.2 ~ 17:58.9

8 - Addi Zerrenner - 12 - Dos Pueblos - 17:17.4 ~ 17:58.9

5 - Snyder, Alyssa - 11 - Park City UT - 17:48.6 ~ 17:59.3

6 - Gregory, Lauren - 9 - Fort Collins CO - 17:49.2 ~ 17:59.9

7 - Feeny, Sarah - 12 - Ogden UT - 17:49.4 ~ 18:00.1

Boys =

1 - Tanner Anderson - 11 - North Central WA - 15:19.4 ~ 15:10.3

2 - Elijah Armstrong - 11 - Pocatello ID - 15:24.1 ~ 15:15.0

3 - Andrew Rafla - 12 - Timberline ID - 15:32.2 ~ 15:23.0

4 - Taylor (Kai) Wilmot - 12 - North Central WA - 15:35.0 ~ 15:25.7

1 - Geberkidane, Cerake - 12 - Denver East CO - 15:17.0 ~ 15:26.2

2 - Mantz, Conner - 11 - Sky View UT - 15:22.7 ~ 15:31.9

1 - Aidan Goltra - 12 - Campolindo - 15:01.9 ~ 15:38.0

2 - Tal Braude - 12 - Torrey Pines - 15:02.0 ~ 15:38.1

3 - David Luna - 12 - Indio - 15:02.2 ~ 15:38.3

4 - Estavan De La Rosa - 12 - Arcadia - 15:02.9 ~ 15:39.0

5 - Austin Tamagno - 10 - Brea Olinda - 15:03.0 ~ 15:39.1

5 - Reilly Bloomer - 11 - South Eugene OR - 15:49.2 ~ 15:39.8

3 - Jacklin, Zachry - 11 - American Fork UT - 15:31.7 ~ 15:41.0

4 - Brewer, Andrew - 12 - Bingham UT - 15:31.9 ~ 15:41.2

5 - Buckley, Mike - 12 - Ogden UT - 15:32.0 ~ 15:41.3

6 - Roth, Bailey - 12 - Coronado CO - 15:32.4 ~ 15:41.7

6 - Andrew Foerder - 12 - Nathan Hale WA - 15:52.0 ~ 15:42.6

7 - Ricky Faure - 12 - Rock Springs WY - 15:52.4 ~ 15:43.0

8 - Logan Carroll - 12 - Gig Harbor WA - 15:52.7 ~ 15:43.3

6 - Fred Huxham - 12 - Redwood - 15:07.6 ~ 15:43.9

7 - Blake Haney - 12 - Stockdale - 15:08.5 ~ 15:44.8

8 - Garrett Corcoran - 12 - Villa Park - 15:08.9 ~ 15:45.3