Calculating optimal pacing time from sub optimal splits?

Training Advice/Discussion General

5 years ago 12/12/2018 12:30pm EST

I am not very well versed in this kind of math so I have a question to direct to the letsrun community.

I ran an 8.4 mile race a couple weeks ago, goal was to hold 5:00 pace for as long as possible, then kick it in, but the pacing ended up being pretty awful because I went out with a guy who took it out way too hard. Most of the rest of the race was spent over 5:00 pace, hurting a good deal, before dropping back down over the last mile or so when I kicked it in, averaged 5:05 pace for it all.

How do I calculate what I would have run with more even pacing? I looked up the old trackbot thing that would calculate this, but it only works for 1500s and 5ks.

Here were my splits, 8 miles and a 0.4 mile

4:46

5:03

5:07

5:12

5:17

5:05

5:13

5:03

1:54

Thanks for any insight

5 years ago 12/12/2018 12:46pm EST

re: not a math nerd

this is a fruitless exercise. your fitness is changing constantly and depends on the race etc. You really didn't start that fast considering it's the first mile. That said, ased on what you've shown here, you're not yet able to hold that 5:00 pace and if you even paced it you'd still be around 5:05/mile

5 years ago 12/12/2018 12:59pm EST

re: math phd boi

I have a hard time believing that going out 15 seconds too fast for the first mile and in turn being in a hole for the rest of the race would not have affected my total time. I think that if I had run the race with the exact same conditions, weeks leading up, etc, but going out in 5:00-5:05 instead of 4;46, I think I would have been in a better place for the rest of the race, been able to stay closer to 5:00 pace and not lost so many seconds above it as I did (5:17, 5:13, etc). and still been able to kick it in at the end

As a bit more context, in case it helps anyone else, the course was pretty much dead flat and conditions were good, nothing to complain about.

5 years ago 12/12/2018 1:55pm EST

re: not a math nerd

I have a method that involves breaking the race into segments and using Purdy tables to extrapolate what I could've done with even splits. It's is probably not that accurate, just gives a ballpark/feel good guess when I blow my wad on the first mile.

It would not work on a fairly evenly split race like yours.

If your race was ruined by going out just a tad quicker than you planned, it was ruined because you let it get in your head, it wasn't anything physical. There's no math tool that can quantify that.

If the course and splits are accurate, you closed the last .4 at the same pace you went out at.

5 years ago 12/12/2018 2:14pm EST

re: not a math nerd

It looks like you are in worse shape than you thought and can't accept that your fitness isn't where you want it to be. Would you have run faster had you opened in 5:00? Maybe a little, but it's clear based on your splits that the first mile didn't destroy your race.

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Calculating optimal pacing time from sub optimal splits?

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