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So I have given a lot of thought to your feedback over the past 11 months since I re-joined the thread. Here is what I have gathered:
You had some bad experience(s) early in your running career, especially with the use of a coach. He had you try “traditional” training (speedwork, intervals, tempo runs, long runs) at a variety of paces that you either did not enjoy and/or did not lead to the results you desired. I believe you had negative experience(s) with the marathon early on as well - hitting a wall and dramatically slowing toward the end of the race(s). I believe you also mentioned that you had an injury very early in your running career, but you have been remarkably durable since. It was only after switching over to your current training method of running high end aerobic progression runs on a daily basis that you started seeing a drop in your race performances, most notably the marathon. Not only did you break 3 hours (which was the original goal a few years back), but you have PR’d at least 3 marathons in a row, progressing from 2:52 to 2:49 to now 2:46.
I think you would acknowledge, however, that it wasn’t until your impressive 20 miler this fall (and then your subsequent PR marathon several weeks later) that you actually went to the well in a race. Up until those two races, you held back at your races, especially the long ones - most likely I would suspect out of the fear of blowing up like you had earlier in your career. It is a satisfying and gratifying way to end a race on a high note. I gather that’s how most of your daily runs lead you feeling as well. Finishing on a positive note.
Well now you have actually gone to the well. Twice. After several impressive years of building your mileage, running it consistently week after week, and gradually progressing the pace of your daily runs. Whereas before you might end a run with the last mile or so in the low 6:00s, you have gotten to the point where you can (several times a week even) crank out 2 to 3 miles in the 5:50s or even 5:40s at the end of your runs. But now you can see where going to the well will get you. About 2:45 for a marathon. And I am guessing about 1:18 for HM if you were to race one right now. And you are in agreement with me that going to the well in a 5k would probably get you in the low 17s to high 16s.
So what now? How do you keep progressing with your current method of training? Train HARDER? How does that look - averaging 6:00-6:20/mi for your daily runs? Progressing to 5:30s or 5:20s at the finish? Knocking out 80-90 mpw at your current paces? You are not physically able to do any of those. You know that. You are hitting up against a ceiling. Which, BY THE WAY, IS FINE. All that means is you have put in the necessary aerobic work over the last few years to MAXIMIZE THAT COMPONENT OF TRAINING.
So as others on this thread have already alluded to, you need to find an alternative way to accomplish the end of getting even faster.
If you are sincere in targeting 2:40, which I believe you have the talent to do, you need to tweak the method. I don’t believe you need to overhaul it. But you do need to tweak it.
I would take all of the things you enjoy about running and keep them in your training plan. I would target the general pace (5:40-5:50/mi) that gives you that “flier” feeling and incorporate more of it in a more structured way. I would never put you on a track for faster efforts, but I would employ those hills you enjoy for fartlek running and hill repeats at approximate 5k effort, relying on a feeling (“fast”) versus any designated pace. I would keep in tact the progression run but use it in two altered specific forms: I like you using it on your daily runs but at a slower pace. I also like you using it on some of your long runs with the purpose of finishing the run at and around marathon pace.
Going faster miles an hour practically recommended the schedule I would recommend for you. Which is based on the classic Kenyan schedule. Six days a week with an optional seventh day. One “faster” run, one “tempo” run and one “longer run” per week. For you, since you enjoy running and have responded well to adding that seventh day, I might recommend rotating a 6 day week with a 7 day week. So that you are running 13 out of every 14 days. For the week that you run 6 days a week, I would make the long run end with a quality progression - the way you love ending your runs. For the weeks that you run 7 days a week, I would make the long run a more traditional easy long run.
So how does this look?
Week 1
M- 6-10 miles easy
T- 8-10 miles incorporating fartlek of 10-15 x (1:00 “fast”/1:00 “easy”).
W- 6-10 miles easy
Th- 10-12 miles incorporating 6-8 miles of tempo running (6:00-6:15/mi), either continuous or broken.
F- 6-10 miles easy
Sa- 14-18 miles easy
Su- 4-6 miles easy
Total: 54-76 miles
Week 2
M- 6-10 miles easy
T- 8-10 miles incorporating 300-400m hill repeats. 8-14 x hill (“fast”) with easy jog down recoveries.
W- 6-10 miles easy
Th- 10-12 miles incorporating 8-12 x 1km at 5:40-5:50/mi with :75 recovery jogs.
F- 6-10 miles easy
Sa- 14-18 miles with the last 6-8 miles at marathon effort (6:05-6:15/mi).
Su- Rest
Total: 50-70 miles.
Rinse and repeat.
So what does “easy” mean? As practically everyone on this thread has chimed in “EASY” is an effort, not a pace. But easy is going to naturally be slower the more you add in structured, faster workouts. How easy? That’s really up to you. Easy enough so that you feel recovered enough to do the next quality session. I would recommend for you to even keep the progression “formula” for your easy runs, starting the first mile or so very slowly (probably 8:00ish for you) and then progressing as it only naturally unfolds. But I would limit you for now to a top end speed of 7:00/mi for your easy runs, even if you feel the urge to go faster. So a typical easy run might progress from 8:00/mi → 7:00/mi and average around 7:30/mi. Bear in mind, while this does represent about a minute per mile slower for you then your daily runs now, it also represents about 6 to 10 more minutes worth of running for you for a 6 to 10 mile run. Those additional minutes are time in the bank, and are also performed at a much gentler and more absorbable pace so that you are primed and ready to go on “workout” day. Also bear in mind that some “easy” days might naturally slow to 8:00/mi with NO progression. Your body will tell you the right pace.
Some questions from you that I can anticipate. How to do the fartleks? I do them this way (similar to gfmah): run easy for ten to twenty minutes as a warmup, and when the watch hits a round minute (say 20:00), I will run “fast” until the watch hits 21:00, and then I will run “easy” until the watch hits 22:00, and so on. If I am doing 10 ons/offs total, I know that represents 20:00 of total fartlek running, so I will be done with the fartlek at 40:00 of that particular run (the 20:00 warmup and then the 20:00 of fartlek). If I am doing 15 ons/offs, I know that is 30:00 of total fartlek running, so I would be done with the fartlek at 50:00 of that particular run. I NEVER know the paces of the on or offs of the fartlek. I focus on running fast and relaxed for the minute “on”; I focus on running what feels like a jog and controlling my breathing for the minute “off.” I don’t know and don’t care what the splits are. That way you don’t have to think about anything. Your overall average pace of the run will give you enough feedback.
How to do the tempo runs, broken or continuous? That is really a matter of preference and how you are feeling. Again, I like to start with 15:00-20:00 of easy running to warmup up. Then you can either do either a straight tempo (say 6 miles of 6:00-6:15/mi), a straight progression tempo (how you generally prefer them, like 6:15-->6:00/mi), or a broken tempo like 6 x 1 mile, or 3 x 2 miles, or 2 x 3 miles, with a brief recovery period (generally about 1:00 recovery for every mile run). Most runners can safely absorb a little more quantity doing a broken tempo - so instead of doing a straight 6 mile tempo, doing an 8 x 1 mile or a 4 x 2 mile tempo instead. It is that concentrated volume at the right pace that makes the big difference from what you are doing now. You could also experiment with doing alternating tempos like 4x (1 mile at 6:20 / 1 mile at 5:50) for a total of 8 miles of running, but I am not sure if that is too much thinking or too much work for you. I would rather you find the method that is the most enjoyable for you.
You may have some questions after reading all of this, which I would be happy to answer as I can. You may still decide to hold off on changing anything with your training right now, which I understand. Above all, I want you to find continued happiness and success with your running. And above all, if you are going to go "your own way" - believe in it and stop asking for input. I say that with all respect. You need to believe in what you are doing.
Happy running...