RE: Official Ivy League/Heps XC 2018 Thread

Impressed with Lundy this season. Not sure if he can hold off Hugo though

Princeton seems like a clear favorite on the mens side. Harvard's probably favored for second. Rojo, are you planning a write up this year?

Mike n ike wrote:

Harvard's probably favored for second.

They will implode at Princeton. They look just like Brown did at Van Cortlandt last year after coming in highly touted .

Men’s seems like Princeton is clear favorite, I think it’s more to see if they can pull a 1-3 sweep?

Women’s side is a little more interesting, quite a few teams in the mix. Columbia seems like a clear favorite to me after Wisco, but flotrack picked Princeton. However they also included Forrest running for Princeton who hasn’t competed yet. Anyone know if she’ll be running?

My prediction is that the Dartmouth men will take the mens' race after having dropped a mixtape this past summer. The 45 boys hit the beat raw and there will be no difference in how they race.

Although this is true, the big green will be no match for when the crimson starts rolling. Word on the street is Judy Pendergast has returned to campus. Although not exactly on the team, her presence and inspiration has driven the Boston boys to new highs and they are currently hitting the beat even more vigoursly. The lingering magic of PWD and Judy will be enough for crimson to roll wicked fast.

Flotrack's predictions seem spotty

Rojo- will you be doing a write up? (please)

West Windsor Fields is relatively flat and pretty fast IMHO. While the week ahead will be cool and cloudy, Saturday is looking to be a wet and cold - weather.com is predicting Saturday to have a high of 48 degrees with a 60% chance of rain during the day, with winds around 12 mph from the NE.

https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/USNJ0427:1:US

Men's side, I would say Princeton is the favorite (barring injury, sickness, or crashing due to the weather, but that I would say is less than 5% given how the conference is this year). Because of their mainly pack-running mentality that they have done in their races to date, I have a hard time really seeing who their #1 runner could be. I know Lundy has fast track credentials and earned All-American honors last year in XC, so it could be him just based on history. Harvard may have a good 1-2-3 with Milner, Tuntivate, and Battershill, but I don't think they have the 4-5 to really contend for for the wind BUT they could have their best conference showing since they finished 4th in 2014 (last time they had a top 3 team finish was back in 1984 [3rd place]!) I think the Penn men need to be kept in conversation for top 3 team finish.

Women's side, I think Columbia and Princeton will fight for the team title. No sign yet of Gabrielle Forrest (defending HepsXC champ for Princeton) this season. Yale's Andrea Masterson finished 2nd at HepsXC last year at VCP, edged out at the line by Forrest and she's had some strong showings at Paul Short and Pre-Nationals. I would bet on Masterson for the individual title. I think Brown's Carleen Jeffers is a dark horse for the individual title as she was the top Heps runner at PSU National Open (which had A-teams from Princeton, Dartmouth, Penn, and Cornell). FYI: Cornell's #1 runner at PSU was Taylor Knibb, who defended her world jr triathlon title back in mid-September and yet considers herself a stronger biker than a runner. Lisa Tertsch (Harvard) is a former triathlete herself, and she's a strong runner as she's gone sub-21 on a 6k XC course this year at Pre-Nationals (which were held in cold conditions in Wisconsin).

But honestly, I am having a hard time assessing the conference this year mainly because I haven't been following it as closely as I have in years past and it doesn't seem as strong in the national sense as previous years. I think the only teams that can make it to NCAAs this year will likely be the Princeton men out of the Mid-Atlantic region as I think the Northeast region has too much depth for a Heps team to make the 1-2 auto and the results this year have been so up-and-down that not sure if they can make it on auto-berths. I think the Heps presence at NCAAs will rely on individuals.

And what, people miss HTC?

GordonM wrote:

Flotrack's predictions seem spotty

Rojo- will you be doing a write up? (please)

I'm guessing you're referring to this?

FLOTRACK TEAM MEN'S PROJECTIONS:

Place School Score

1 Princeton 27

2 Penn 78

3 Dartmouth 81

4 Harvard 83

5 Columbia 105

6 Brown 149

7 Cornell 191

8 Yale 221

FLOTRACK TEAM WOMEN'S PROJECTIONS:

Place School Score

1 Princeton 53

2 Dartmouth 64

3 Brown 75

4 Columbia 82

5 Yale 150

6 Penn 170

7 Cornell 173

8 Harvard 173

They also have individual projections, but they are hidden behind their Pro account paywall. Anyone got an account and willing to share what they "predict"?

1 Lundy, Conor JR Princeton

2 Milner, Hugo SO Harvard

3 Willcutts, Gannon JR Princeton

4 Grossman, Matt SO Princeton

5 Tuntivate, Kieran JR Harvard

6 Italiano, Tyler SR Columbia

7 Spiezio, Jeremy SR Princeton

8 O'Brien, Patrick SO Dartmouth

9 Groff, Aaron JR Penn

10 Cooney, Quinn JR Dartmouth

11 Russo, Anthony SO Penn

12 Trippas, Ed SO Princeton

13 Webb, Sam SR Penn

14 Martins, Franco SR Brown

15 Battershill, Will JR Harvard

16 Daly, Colin JR Penn

17 Zabilski, Brian SR Columbia

18 Vasbinder, Kenny JR Columbia

19 Krahn, David JR Princeton

20 Pompilj, Marco JR Dartmouth

21 Kushen, Alexander SR Dartmouth

22 Ritz, Owen SO Dartmouth

23 Daly, Cameron JR Brown

24 Raymond, Henry JR Dartmouth

25 Hagge, Perrin JR Princeton

26 Matejka, Ben SO Dartmouth

27 Pereira, Matthew SO Harvard

28 Ritz, Sam SR Columbia

29 Cohen, Daniel SO Penn

30 Fusco, Greg FR Cornell

31 Carey, Noah SO Penn

32 Morganti, Dominic SO Brown

33 Reimer, Tomas SR Cornell

34 Melville, David FR Harvard

35 Reinhart, Trevor SR Yale

36 Schumacher, Dan SR Columbia

37 Fisher, Tyler SR Cornell

38 Scherrer, David SO Brown

39 Roth, Alexander SO Penn

40 Neumaier, Steve JR Cornell

41 Miranda, Robert FR Yale

42 Lanigan, Zachary JR Brown

43 Lauer, Jonathan SO Columbia

44 Smith, Tyler SR Brown

45 Kruse, Kaeo SO Harvard

46 Lomogda, Jonathan JR Yale

47 Bishop, Owen SO Columbia

48 Hale, Tom SR Brown

49 Brown, Cade FR Yale

50 Siegler, Allen JR Yale

51 Fusco, Matt FR Cornell

52 Nowak, Marek FR Cornell

53 Granata, Jamie FR Cornell

54 Price, Collin SR Harvard

55 Noonan, Armstrong JR Yale

56 Laird, Will SO Yale

1 Forrest, Gabrielle JR Princeton

2 Jeffers, Carleen SR Brown

3 Tertsch, Lisa SO Harvard

4 Chittenden, Melia SO Princeton

5 Smith, Maya FR Brown

6 Masterson, Andrea SR Yale

7 Hays, Alexandra SO Columbia

8 Fear, Georgia JR Dartmouth

9 Sapone, Lauren JR Dartmouth

10 Stevenson, Julia JR Dartmouth

11 Bellows, Allison SR Brown

12 Gregoire, Erin SR Columbia

13 Kokes, Libby SR Columbia

14 Knibb, Taylor JR Cornell

15 Offstein, Madison SR Princeton

16 Fordyce, Alie SR Princeton

17 Klimkiewicz, Allie SR Princeton

18 Murphy, Glendora SO Dartmouth

19 Lantz, Olivia SR Dartmouth

20 Lester, Page FR Princeton

21 Chau, Jocelyn FR Yale

22 Anderson, Lillian SR Dartmouth

23 Wasserman, Katie JR Columbia

24 Thompson, Grace SR Dartmouth

25 Leach, Brighie SR Princeton

26 Villalba, Madeline JR Penn

27 Kogan, Maria SO Columbia

28 Valentine, Samantha SO Brown

29 Srour, Lucy SR Brown

30 Zimmer, Elizabeth FR Penn

31 Tripodi, Serena SO Columbia

32 Goldstein, Abbe SO Harvard

33 Orie, Danielle SO Penn

34 Kompelien, Emily FR Brown

35 Ghazariann, Sevanne SO Yale

36 Todd, Gracie SR Cornell

37 Tanaka, Melissa SO Penn

38 Dobson, Isabella SO Cornell

39 Hajda, Allison SO Brown

40 Delay, Kayley SO Yale

41 Juul, Anna SO Harvard

42 Taylor, Annie SR Cornell

43 Brumley, Briar SR Cornell

44 Hebner, Isabel FR Penn

45 Zammitti, Melissa SO Cornell

46 Mclaughlin, Abigail JR Columbia

47 Starn, Brooke SO Harvard

48 Miller, Jane JR Yale

49 Huelskamp, Audrey JR Cornell

50 Meeks, Gillian JR Harvard

51 Condell, Alyssa SO Penn

52 Akins, Nia JR Penn

53 Mccormick, Morgan FR Yale

54 Rayle, Maya FR Harvard

55 Medrano, Tessa SO Harvard

56 Lord, Arianna JR Yale

Got you fam wrote:

1 Forrest, Gabrielle JR Princeton

2 Jeffers, Carleen SR Brown

3 Tertsch, Lisa SO Harvard

Thanks for sharing the individual predictions. But what basis do they have of Forrest running HepsXC? Did they speak with Coach Hunt to confirm? I've known other coaches put "contenders" on the start list, only for the "contenders" to not race in order to throw off the other teams.

C/M Runner wrote:

Got you fam wrote:

1 Forrest, Gabrielle JR Princeton

2 Jeffers, Carleen SR Brown

3 Tertsch, Lisa SO Harvard

Thanks for sharing the individual predictions. But what basis do they have of Forrest running HepsXC? Did they speak with Coach Hunt to confirm? I've known other coaches put "contenders" on the start list, only for the "contenders" to not race in order to throw off the other teams.

They didn’t have any explanation for their picks. I agree though. Seems bold to have the favorite be someone who isn’t sure to even be healthy this season.

The weather could definitely make Saturday interesting as some of the turns at Princeton can get pretty treacherous when it rains.

Overall I agree the men's side seems pretty down this year. Princeton should almost certainly win and will probably score really low. After that it looks 2nd place is up for grabs between Harvard and Penn, but I don't think Dartmouth can be discounted or even Columbia because the lions do have some of the more talented guys in the league who have either been hurt or simply not run for whatever reason this season. I think Lundy should definitely be considered the favorite based on past performances and his run last weekend. Sidenote: I just looked into his results on TFRRS and noticed that last weekend at Princeton was the first time he won a collegiate race at any distance XC, indoor, or outdoor, which shocked me for someone so talented, and it also seems crazy he hasn't won a Heps title since it seems like he's been competitive since his freshmen year. I think Milner or Tuntivate from Harvard will give him and some of the other Tigers a run for their money, but I imagine Lundy will prevail.

On the women side Columbia definitely looks like the favorite on paper, and really that's seems true whether or not Forrest runs for Princeton. They're performance at Wisconsin was pretty impressive and it looks like they have a top 3 no other team can match, with enough of a supporting cast to take the win. Princeton, Dartmouth, and Yale will make it a race though I think because last year Columbia came in favored and it was closer than some expected. Masterson from Yale looks like the favorite individually. Maybe if Forrest returns she could defend her title on her home course, but if not I expect to see Jeffers, Tertsch, or one of the 3 Columbia ladies, either Hays, Gergoire, or Kokes to challenge for the win.

I think right now Princeton men and Columbia women are sitting strong as probable NCAA qualifiers along with some individuals out of the Northeast.

Looking forward to Saturday though, it should be fun as always.

Not going to argue that Columbia didn’t look good at Wisco- they certainly did. In fact I thought that performance was maybe going to make them unbeatable. But they went and raced at Princeton 2 weeks later and didn’t replicate those results or performances. I think they had an early lucky day- but I don’t think it means they won’t have to fight very hard to win on Saturday. I think they are right in there with Princeton, Dartmouth, and Yale.

Also reply to an earlier post- yes! Missing HTC!!

Weather update:

Weather.com is still calling for periods rain, but it is predicting it to be slightly warmer and windier than what they published earlier this week. High of 50 degrees, 100% chance of rain, winds from NW at 15 to 25 mph with some gusts over 40 mph. Bring your rain gear but don't recommend umbrellas (unless you want the umbrellas to get destroyed by the wind OR by the fellow spectators if you block their view of the race). Hourly data not available yet for Saturday.

https://weather.com/weather/5day/l/USNJ0427:1:US

I'm keeping an eye on some other running websites/personalities to see if they publish any predictions or HepsXC previews these next few days. If they do, I'll try to post links to them. The Stride Report announced yesterday that they have a Penn '18 grad, Sean Collins, now as a writer, so I'm curious if he'll be the Heps reporter this week or not. The Wood Report was chatting up about the Yale and Columbia women last night on Twitter, saying that he believes they are having their best season in years (but he admitted that he hasn't done too much research into their XC histories) but he seems impressed with Columbia's 1-2 of Kokes and Gregoire and he says that Yale's Masterson is "the real deal" this year.

Live results for HepsXC will be available thru leonetiming.com.

https://results.leonetiming.com/

Nothing advertised on Ivy League Sports regarding any video coverage. I doubt they would have any though.

does anyone know what time the races are?

ivyfan wrote:

does anyone know what time the races are?

Per the live results page: women at 11am, men at noon.

Interestingly enough, the live results have a preliminary start list for both races. I wouldn't trust it though as they could just be the general roster lists for each of the schools.