How many MPW for 3:05 marathon?

I did this on about 15 mpw, but I was also lifting and cycling a lot.

Any serious answers?

Want2getfaster wrote:

Any serious answers?

Aim for a peak of 70 and then if you only hit 65 max and only average 55-60 you will be fine.

Yeah, it doesn't work that way. There is no "xx miles per week" equals "x:xx marathon" fitness. I've run sub 3:00 on 20 mpw, but I also have almost 30 years of running background.

The short answer is you need to do more than you have been doing to improve. How much you improve will depend on a lot of things including the type of running you are doing (follow a training plan), your athletic history, and how much natural talent you have.

Yes, bumping your mileage will help you get closer to 3:05. The marathon is a long race. Run as many miles as you can without getting hurt. An average of 60mpw would be good.

As for exactly how many MPW for 3:05, the answer is "it depends." I have several friends who run around 2:50 off 30 mpw. Some people could run 80MPW and struggle to bust 3:30.

If you want to run 3:05, you need to get that HM down to 1:25ish. That will give you a reasonable HM x 2 + 15 minute estimate. It looks like that was spot on for your HM/FM times last year. 5k down to 18:45 range would be a good sign too.

The 10x800m you cite above but can be a decent workout, but this is not an accurate race predictor for the marathon. 800's are short and 2 minutes rest allows any decently fit person to almost fully recover before the next 800. Your half marathon time, or a marathon specific workout (10 easy + 10 goal pace) are going to give you much better predictors.

In 7 months I think you could get pretty close to 3:05 on increased mileage.

As "runners are not machines" says above, everyone's results will be different, so take this with a grain of salt. But anecdotally, I (32-yo male) was able run sub-3:00 off of about 55 mpw average, peaking around 65- that's a ~15% increase on the 48 mpw you said you did last time, so that shouldn't put you at any significant injury risk.

The 10x800 is a good workout to gauge your ability- if you can hit those in 3:00, you'll be in good shape, but it's important to evaluate that in the middle of a typical 55+ mile week. I was a good seven or eight seconds faster per the time I did it in a low-mileage week coming off a race.

Not sure what other workouts you typically do- I like to get in a good tempo run each week, (2 mile warm up, 2x4 mile at half marathon pace w/ 4 min rest, 2 mile cool down). I think that helped build confidence for hitting my target pace on race day. Another thing I did last training cycle that seemed to help was mixing in some shorter long runs with a chunk at race pace. At the peak, I'd alternate 20-22 mile runs at an easier pace one Sunday with 16-18 mile runs with the middle 10 at race pace the next Sunday.

Going from 48 mpw to 55 isn't a huge increase, so I wouldn't worry too much about injuries. And 55 mpw, considering your other stats, should be plenty to run 3:05.

And, in fact, if that 3:15 was your first marathon, then just maintaining about 50 mpw while increasing quality would probably be enough to improve to 3:05.

That said, last year I improved to 3:07 from 3:25 the previous year by increasing my weekly mileage, but that was from only 25 or so, average, to about 50. Total mileage, of course, is only one component. I also added LT and VO2max workouts. And a quality medium-long run every nine days (I used a 9-day "week").

Along the way, I ran a 1:28 half marathon and 18:58 for 5K -- a bit faster than what you did. But, honestly, there is no way I could have replicated your 10 x 800 workout. At best, I managed only 6 x 800 at about your pace and THREE minutes recovery. That tells me you have untapped potential.

And simply having that first marathon under your belt will really help. Coincidentally, my first marathon, decades ago, was also 3:15. Six weeks later, I ran 2:52. Experience is big factor.

Thanks all. Some great answers here. Will plan to peak at 65-70 and average 55 or so for the 20 weeks leading up to the race. I’m feeling very optimistic already being at 50+ MPW and a 16 mile long run 7 months out.

Do everything you talked about in the above, but evolve that 800 session into a without where you are doing 6x1600 at 6:10 and I guarantee sub 3:05.

How much rest between the 1600’s?

Wasn't there a thread just yesterday for a 3:00 marathon?

Take all the advice from that and shoot for 3. Make sure your yasso 800s in particular are right on 3 minutes though.

Want2getfaster wrote:

How much rest between the 1600’s?

One lap. Don't stop, keep moving, learn to recover while still moving (that might mean jogging the recovery lap anywhere from 2:15-45)

If you can run a 5K in about 18:30, give or take a few seconds.

Half marathon in about 1:25

And top out at 60-65 MPW, you should be good to go.

Was your 3:15 marathon your first? If so, I wouldn't advocate a big boost in mileage. But 55-60 MPW is a solid number if you can stay healthy while running it.

Shoot for 60 or about an hour a day average, when you throw in a 20 mile long run that gives you two really easy days a week or even a full day off. I really don't think you need to be doing "workouts" to run a 3 hour marathon, you are better off racing a couple times a month at distances from 5k to half marathon. They don't have to be all out efforts, just good hard efforts and they will give you a pretty good idea of what kind of marathon shape you are in.

I had somewhat similar times to you. I couldn't push my peak or average miles beyond what you are doing without a variety of tweak injuries. Instead, I focused on strength, core and cross training and saw improvement. I think I was more disciplined in keeping training paces from getting too fast when not necessary.

The people that say there is no X amount of miles that guarantees or correlates to a certain time are absolutely right. I've run 3 marathons on similar mileage and the time difference between the best and worst is an astounding 30 minutes lol. I will say this though, being able to handle more mileage without sacrificing quality and maintaining a well structured training plan will go a long way.

Here's an example for you from my own experience:

Previous: 45-50 mpw average with 60 peak

Now: 65 mpw with low 70 peak

With the higher mileage I'm now running all distances approximately 10 sec/mile faster. That equates to almost 4.5 minutes in the marathon. I'm faster than you so you probably have more to gain from an increase in mileage. In addition to increased fitness that can be seen across the board, running more mileage makes your legs stronger to handle the last 6 miles of a marathon that are always so difficult. I don't get as sore and haven't bonked on my long runs which is why I'm actually predicting an improvement of about 12 minutes in the marathon (4.5 from fitness boost and the rest from stronger legs). On the lower mileage I never ran a marathon that reflected my actual fitness.

Not my first. But the first in a while that I focused and resort tried to do my best vs just finishing.

You ran 2:52 6 weeks after your 3:15? Did you do just base mileage in between and a mini-taper?