Nandrolone

Chemist you maybe but a grasp of math of math is poor.

No matter how much you try to pretend, the testing of A/B samples are not random unrelated events from a mathematical point of view and therefore to pretend their is any validity to to use of the multiplication rule to calculate the probability of these two interdth of math is poor.

No matter how much you try to pretend, the testing of A/B samples are not random unrelated events from a mathematical point of view and therefore to pretend their is any validity to to use of the multiplication rule to calculate the probability of these two interdt doesn't involve statisitical interpretation of results...Eeeck.

Chemist you maybe but a grasp of math of math is poor.

No matter how much you try to pretend, the testing of A/B samples are not random unrelated events from a mathematical point of view and therefore to pretend their is any validity to to use of the multiplication rule to calculate the probability of these two interdependent results is foolish. A false positive in the A sample effects the chances of a false positive in the B sample plain and simple.

I simply gave the examples to to elucidate my point not to put them fourth as actual reasons for false positives.

I hope your job as a chemist doesn't involve statisitical interpretation of results...Eeeck.

Totally agree with you valley man!!How can they use WADA limits based on such ridiculous experiments lke that!! It really is quite crazy and just highlights the need for so much more research and funding towards testing athletes under race conditions ...who knows what an individials body may do in an Iornman for example evryone 's body reacts differently.. WADA should do alot more tests on endurance athletes instead of trying to relate a 2o min run what a JOKE!!!!!...esp when an Ironman lasts over 8 hours how are these similar comparisons?????

a) the threshold for NA was fixed not on 40 samples but on the experience of testing hundreds of thousands of competing ATHLETES' samples for years; it was supported by literature - not from antidoping labs;

b) We don't find normally NA in athlete's urine samples using the routine lab screening analysis (lower limit of detection around 0.3 to 0.5 ng/mL). The threshold is at 2 ng/mL. To be able to measure endogenous NA in urine, you have to use an increased volume of urine, special purification and concentration of the metabolites, and high sensitivity instrumentation. And even in those conditions, several urine samples are not containing the traces of NA.

c) the phenomenon of "Active" urines was discovered end of 2002 in Kreischa (for me, 2002 is recent) - we made similar observations of strange NA pattern urines in 2002/2003 and I immediatly stated our concern (yes, if the urines are not frozen, the amount of NE is increasing through the testing process - none of the other signs of microbial degradation are noted i.e. hydrolysis of steroids conjugates, oxydo reduction through 3,17 OH steroid dehydrogenase etc). I participated (and still am) to confirming the phenomenon and to finding a technique to differentiate exogenous from endogenous origin (which is now applied routinely in my lab and in Cologne) and to writing the technical note (read it again, my name is on it);

c) from the 170,000 tests done on athletes' samples each year, 250 to 300 are reported to contain levels statistically greater than the threshold of 2 ng/mL;

d) the Tribunal in the Ottey case (not that recent)was mislead by the athlete's expert (Mr. Davis) who had a math calculation wrong (for the normalisation of the threshold to take into account the specific gravity). It was acknowledged in several subsequent decisions(I agree he has pointed to a problem in one lab analysis that has been confirmed when reviewed and the case went nowhere). He has no testing/research experience in the field.

e)all potentially natural substances are difficult to test: testosterone, androstenedione, DHEA, norandrosterone, EPO, growth hormone. The tests are complex and sure, urine samples being "live" material, there can be degradation / activity. With EPO, there are also deviant patterns, possibly "effort" patterns that should never be confused with a positive when the results are properly interpreted.

Tests being made by humans, errors are possible although we try to make this almost impossible with many guidelines, recommendations, controls etc. If a mistake was made and an athlete's reputation damaged, that has to be fully clarified and repaired.

Dear C. Ayotte

It's refreshing to see someone of your expertise acknowledge that doping tests are not infallible and more importantly that a positive drug test is not "proof" of guilt! This is in line with the principles of natual justice and "innocent until proven guilty" that any athlete should be able to expect. If only the media could stop vilifying athletes as soon as they hear about a positive finding, both the Media and anyone in the public who have less experience in drug testing than youself should not make unsubstantiated comments causing uneccessary propaganda.

In saying this it is only fair that testing laboratories should also be held "strictly liable" for any information they publish/report on about an athlete especially when they are now allowed to "name" the athlete. Laboratories should be 100% confident before they release the information.

Thank you though for admitting that this is a possibility and realising the importance of repairing athletes reputations. I hope that a more pro-active approach by doping agencies in the future ensures that every precuation is taken before naming an athlete and stop the media from misconstruing information to interpret it as proof of guilt!

Its good to have a professional view and clarity.

Does anyone know or remember the case where an athlete used as his defence the fact that temperature can actually increase the amount of metabloites in the urine.

However the latest technical document from WADA (regarding unstable urine)reads that upon incubation at 37 drgrees the metabolites (NE)actually increase not decrease.

I also remember another case where the athlete argued travel time may have caused the adverse finding but this was upheld as it was said it could not have been the cause of the adverse finding.

So what would happen if your urine sample was not frozen straight away and travelled for several days to the testing lab.

Could this be argued that this may also be a cause for a false positive ie "unstable urine phenomina " especially if its a during warm wather or above 37 degrees.

ref point (a)

What literature and why have the labs not published their results in a peer reviewable format?

I think the athlete you are referring to is a New Zealand Olympic Swimmer whose urine sample sat at Sydney airport for 2 weeks unrefrigerated, at Sydney Summer temps, before going on to the IOC testing lab. They reported a positive test of 3.5 and 4 ng/ml. There is no IOC testing lab in NZ so samples are sent to Sydney. The case went through to the Supreme Court of NZ who ruled the result was unsafe because the sample had been mishandled. Nevertheless FINA imposed a 4year ban. The case eventually went to the Court of Arbitration for Sport who partially upheld the appeal because of "irregularities" and reduced the suspension to two years. There were two expert witnesses for the swimmer, both Professors of Medicine (one of Endocrinology and the other of Steroid Chemistry) who suggested in their evidence the effect that is now observed in the so called "active' or "unstable" urines. They raised the possibility of the metabolites of nandrolone being produced in vitro by conversion or metabolism of precursor steroids in a urine stored at warm ambient temperatures for 14 days. This could be what Drugfree is referring to in their comment. The Court in reaching its decision to cut the minimum ban in half stated 'the presence of a prohibited substance in his body was mainly founded upon the "external transformation theory" which caused considerable debate between the experts and which the Court's Panel is not prepared to accept'. This was in 2001 and yet it now seems that this is the basis of the "unstable" urine phenomenum. The "positive" result ruined his swimming career.

I was pleased to read above that C. Ayotte says sport authorities are investigating if cases that would meet the criteris of 'unstable urine' have been reported. I also note her comment that if a mistake was made and an athlete's reputation damaged, that has to be fully clarified and repaired. I would think that the 14 days his sample was at summer temperatures, along with the high S.G., makes him a prime candidate for the "unstable" urine effect.

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bump

Are the posts in this old thread by C Ayotte by the same person involved in the Shelby Houlihan case?

I think so.

Supposedly, the test identified the nandrolone as "exogenous". I do not know if they used protocol to assume exogenous origin or could actually differentiate it from endogenous nandrolone.

Bump again with the WaPo article.

I have not been in the sport for 10 years, but I've been fascinated by the Shelby situation and some of the other recent positive tests of late that have either been overturned or seem like bogus. A lot of reputations/careers getting ruined with what seems like could be too high of a false positive rate. To high of a false positive rate is arguably worse for the sport than a high false negative rate.

These situations are a little differnet, but still reputation damaging and likely with no intentional doping. Peter Bol. Asinga (still being figured out). Hassan Mead. Randolph Ross.

There have also been some more positive Nandrolone tests since Shelby with the athlete maintaining innocence. Janet Chemusto. A couple of Kenyans? Others? Make me think it's more likely that false positives can be a real thing with Nandrolone.

And when I say false positive, I don't mean that Nandrolone was not in Shelby's system - it seems like it clearly was. Just that it can get in your system in a variety of ways.

C Ayotte financially benefits from this test being done. It does seem that her rationale from 17 years ago has some big holes.