Target goal time for Grandma's?

Training Advice/Discussion Marathon

6 years ago 03/19/2018 9:07am EDT

Hi everyone, hoping some with more experience in this time range can give me an idea of what to shoot for at Grandma's in three months. I've been running in the high 30s/low 40s MPW range for the last 12 save for two down weeks due to minor injury. Recent times:

Two weeks ago, Washington Heights 5k (hilly course) -17:35

Yesterday, NYC Half (uphill in second half through midtown/central park) - 1:19:15

I'm planning on bumping the milage up a bit for the marathon but probably not much more than mid to high 50s. What do you think I should shoot for in the marathon assuming good conditions on the day?

6 years ago 03/19/2018 9:19am EDT

re: central_park_laps

Your low mileage will limit you. If this is your first marathon, that will limit you as well. In addition, Grandma's can be very hot, or it can be ideal weather if the wind is off the lake.

With the limited information you provided I think anything under three hours would be a very good performance. You have plenty of speed but with such low mileage, you'll struggle to do the kinds of long runs in training that would be needed to run closer to 2:50 or under. To get to that range you'd likely have to be able to do a few long runs of 20 miles with at least the second half done around 6:30-40 pace (and be able to recover quickly from them; have them not be all out efforts). Can you do that off a base of only 40 mpw? If you can, then you've got a lot of talent. Most people probably couldn't, though, so if I were you I'd be setting 2:59 as my goal time.

6 years ago 03/19/2018 9:32am EDT

re: ish

ish wrote:
Your low mileage will limit you. If this is your first marathon, that will limit you as well. In addition, Grandma's can be very hot, or it can be ideal weather if the wind is off the lake.
With the limited information you provided I think anything under three hours would be a very good performance. You have plenty of speed but with such low mileage, you'll struggle to do the kinds of long runs in training that would be needed to run closer to 2:50 or under. To get to that range you'd likely have to be able to do a few long runs of 20 miles with at least the second half done around 6:30-40 pace (and be able to recover quickly from them; have them not be all out efforts). Can you do that off a base of only 40 mpw? If you can, then you've got a lot of talent. Most people probably couldn't, though, so if I were you I'd be setting 2:59 as my goal time.

Thanks. It'll be my second marathon, ran NYC last November with pretty limited/not serious training in 3:21. Was a great experience but I'm planning on actually training seriously for this one and racing it.

6 years ago 03/19/2018 1:51pm EDT

re: central_park_laps

Bump...any other opinions?

6 years ago 03/19/2018 1:53pm EDT

re: central_park_laps

How old a grandma are we talking about?

6 years ago 03/19/2018 2:18pm EDT

re: central_park_laps

My initial reaction was about 2:55

6 years ago 03/19/2018 5:40pm EDT

re: central_park_laps

In my 40s, I had a nearly identical 5K time and a slightly slower half marathon. On similar mileage, I EASILY ran 2:56:03. I probably should have aimed for 2:52. You should definitely be looking for 2:55 or better.

Three months out, I was maybe averaging 30 mpw. After that, I averaged about 42 mpw, with a few single weeks approaching 60. The key is the long run. I included a few 20-milers and one 23-miler. And a few medium-long runs. The fastest pace for those was 15 miles at 7:02/mi. Four weeks out I ran a flat half-marathon in 1:22.

See how thing go for the next couple months. You may find yourself shooting for 2:50. Obviously, you have a good amount of natural ability, and even a small bump in mileage may pay huge dividends.

6 years ago 03/19/2018 6:06pm EDT

re: central_park_laps

Nice race times. Especially on relatively low miles. I agree with the other poster that said those might limit you.

No matter what, you're in an awesome position for a mega-PR. So, if it were me, I'd start training as if I was shooting for 2:55. Then as the weeks progress, maybe shift that goal down. Or when race week comes, see what the weather brings and how the legs are feeling. I do see you going anywhere between low 2:50s or low 3:00s (probably only if you blow up).

6 years ago 03/19/2018 10:10pm EDT

re: onlyconservativeinthemarathon

pace for 3hrs if you feel good at 22 run faster.

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