MIAC Track 2018

Records wrote:

https://apps.carleton.edu/athletics/varsity_sports/mens_track_and_field/schedule_and_results/?story_id=1676921&event_id=1615900

So how many Panamanian records can he get? Serious question: is Tokyo 2020 realistic for him? That would be sick to have the MIAC represented in the Olympics

That's tough. Wikipedia is an incomplete list. Anything 1500m-3000m obviously, as he already has the mile and the 3000. The 400 is out of his reach at 46.26. The outdoor 800m is 1:48.5, so he might already have the indoor one (it's not listed) and the outdoor one is certainly possible.

1:46.00 was the Qualifying Standard for Rio, probably will remain the same for Tokyo. If he runs that, he's in.

D1inourhearts wrote:

Records wrote:

https://apps.carleton.edu/athletics/varsity_sports/mens_track_and_field/schedule_and_results/?story_id=1676921&event_id=1615900

So how many Panamanian records can he get? Serious question: is Tokyo 2020 realistic for him? That would be sick to have the MIAC represented in the Olympics

That's tough. Wikipedia is an incomplete list. Anything 1500m-3000m obviously, as he already has the mile and the 3000. The 400 is out of his reach at 46.26. The outdoor 800m is 1:48.5, so he might already have the indoor one (it's not listed) and the outdoor one is certainly possible.

1:46.00 was the Qualifying Standard for Rio, probably will remain the same for Tokyo. If he runs that, he's in.

I could be wrong, but I think it’s the qualifying country participating in the championships that’s selects their qualifying standard. I see too often 100m and 400m runners in the Olympic prelims from small island nations who run mediocre high schools times. There were also a couple of 1:55 800m runners at the last world championships. So I think the country puts the standards in place. New Zealand, for example, only sends athletes if they run as fast as the 10th runner at the championships previous (from what I remember reading).

With that said, DCG could realistically compete in the world indoor championships this year.

It’s common knowledge that St. Thomas will win the indoor championship. Their middle distance is good, and their field events dominate. However, as of now, its looking like a surging mid to long distance crew from Carleton could threaten the Tommies’ dynasty.

If we were to score the current rankings right now with the standard 10,8,6,5,4,3,2,1 system in every event, the team scores come out to be:

1.St. Thomas- - -153

2. Carleton- - - - 148

3. Bethel- - - - - - - 93

4. Saint Mary's - - 63

5.Hamline- - - - - - 61

6. St. Johns - - - - - 57

7. Concordia- - - - 46

8. Gustavus- - - - - 46

9. St. Olaf- - - - - - -36

10. Augsburg- - - -26

11. Macalester- - - -8

The Knights are just 5 points out of 1st, could they do it?

Now, a lot of those points come from Donson, and he can’t run every event, so Carleton's score is inflated a bit, but he is definitely capable of a crap-ton of volume.

Also, there has been pretty much no competition in the 5k with only Carleton and Concordia running it so far. I assume that will change this weekend. I’m curious to see the times St. Olaf will bring to the table. Will they even finish top 5 after getting 2nd last year?

Considerations:

This is also without considering any DMR.

MIAC is still 3 weeks out.

Questions:

Who will improve the most in the next few weeks?

Who will win the toilet bowl?

How many events will Ben Madigan run?

Interesting numbers. This +10 from DMR would be probably be the best case scenario for Carleton so they may have a chance but other teams will almost for sure cut into some of their totals

If Donson doesn't run 3k (I don't think he will...). Who will win? I don't think the boys from Carleton will win. Lerdall, Ketola, Stumbo?

This is really interesting. It isn't improbably that Carleton wins, though I don't anticipate it. If St. Thomas has a complete meltdown like they did outdoors in 2016 at Saint John's then Carleton has a great chance. As someone had mentioned before, their long and triple jumpers account for the great majority of their points here. If they have a bad day, then it could happen.

Mueller wins hands down. That South Dakota race is something else

Don't quite get why Carleton keeps running at SDSU. Conversion absolutely kills their times--though this is based off an inkling that the times on oversized and banked tracks are a bit closer to what a guy would run on a flat track, especially one with generous curves like Olaf for example. 8:23 flat is worth about 8:29. Seems that they could find a race with solid competition on a flat track.

http://www.ustfccca.org/assets/NCAA-Indoor-Track-Size-Conversion-Charts.pdf

Isn't nationals on a banked track this year? Isnt that what tfrrs is converting all of our flat track times to?

I imagine because they're trying to run nationals times (or just as fast as possible), they're not concerned that whatever they run will be a tad slower converted back in the MIAC rankings, which they still lead. All about competition for them, then, and it worked well this time.

That conversion is there for a reason. It's an equalizer and they know that going in to their races.

Nationals is on a banked track. But its not as if you need to hit a time to qualify. The qualifying times will all be faster this year with flat track times converted to banked/oversized marks. A guy who runs 8:28 on a flat track will be ahead of Mueller on the descending order list.

But its all generally premised on the idea that the conversion tends to favor a flat track time by a bit. I understand going to SDSU to get competition though.

That's what I'm saying. They want to run really fast, so they go to really fast races. There's no reason to NOT run at SDSU (instead of what, St Thomas last night?) and get good competition to pull them along, EVEN THOUGH the time gets converted slower.

The conversion doesn't favor anyone, it's not based on guesses. If you agree with "the idea that the conversion tends to favor a flat track time" you are factually wrong.

"The conversion doesn't favor anyone, it's not based on guesses. If you agree with 'the idea that the conversion tends to favor a flat track time' you are factually wrong."

Don't be a f*ckhead. Its based on a model that was built based on results form 07-10 from athletes who ran the same event in consecutive weeks on different types of tracks. So it is an educated guess--but a guess nonetheless. There's a nice senior thesis of a former NCAA qualifier in the 400 from WPI that examined the model and found that it tended to overestimate the conversion factor.

"In essentially all cases, the GLMM estimates for the conversion standards are much lower

than the ones computed by the NCAA. In other words, the GLMM calculated less of a track

effect than the NCAA. The NCAA standards fell within the 95% confidence interval (for the

linear mixed model estimates) in only 5 of 35 cases (denoted by *). The NCAA standards were

included in 6 of 35 Bonferroni intervals (denoted by #). Because of this, there is a significant

difference between the two sets of standards. Figure 7 also shows that the GLMM conversion

standards (for a banked to flat conversion) are even lower than the old conversion standards for

Division III." p. 34

Physiologically it seems to make sense that there is less of a difference between tracks when you're running a long distance event. Unlike a 400 where you may not be able to maintain full speed coming around the turn, it does not seem that milers/3k/5k runners need to decelerate around the curves.

https://web.wpi.edu/Pubs/E-project/Available/E-project-042413-222345/unrestricted/Statistical_Models_for_NCAA_Indoor_Track_and_Field_Data.pdf

Well, The Showcase wasn't all that crazy this year, no totally outstanding MIAC performances. At least I didn't believe so. SDSU on the other hand...Pretty fast.

Questions coming out of this weekend:

What event will Lucas Mueller be a national champ in before he graduates?

Is anyone besides DCG able to break 2:33 in the 1000?

Will PT convert to 5k with 9:02 or hope to just do well in 3k?

Is LIBAN JAMA the darkhorse still for every event? Maybe

Who gave Jack Henschel fashion advise?

Darin Lau's missing neck wrote:

Well, The Showcase wasn't all that crazy this year, no totally outstanding MIAC performances. At least I didn't believe so. SDSU on the other hand...Pretty fast.

Questions coming out of this weekend:

What event will Lucas Mueller be a national champ in before he graduates?

Is anyone besides DCG able to break 2:33 in the 1000?

Will PT convert to 5k with 9:02 or hope to just do well in 3k?

Is LIBAN JAMA the darkhorse still for every event? Maybe

Who gave Jack Henschel fashion advise?

Carleton has proven they know how to develop athletes to do well at nationals, so I have great faith that Lucas Mueller will at least be in contention for a national title by his senior year. Fellow freshman Wilkinson will be an all american, as well.

If Liban Jama is a darkhorse, then I would assume Karl Wachter is, as well, since they have run very comparable times this indoors season. Both are my picks as dark horses.

And I hope PT and Keith are able to finish up their senior seasons well. I think a lot of us pegged them as sophomores to dominate the MIAC by their senior seasons, but it is hard to compete with the star-studded freshmen that have come in.

1. Mueller is going to be a 4 time natty champ by the end of senior year and win 3k and 5k at conference this year.

2. Jama is the 2nd fastest long distance freshman in the MIAC. Will get 2nd in the mile indoor conference.

3. Wachter is not a darkhorse, but Sam Nelson from Bethel is.

4. Stumbo doesn't seem much like a track guy this indoor season. His teammate Kerbeshian is looking better as each meet goes on.

5. What will Henschel run? Defending champ Lerdall with a decent 5k. Could he win if the race is perfect for him? Ketola will go top 3 in mile and 3k.

6. Is PT overrated or just waiting for his time?

7. The Johnnies are looking good in the 5k. Does Burgstahler score in 3k?

8. The real question.... What will Donson run in 2 weeks?

NCC's 5k group is looking like STO's 1500 finals a couple years ago...

AwJeez wrote:

NCC's 5k group is looking like STO's 1500 finals a couple years ago...

Yeah they should be able to pace Lau through at least 3k before he dusts them.

If were doing dark horses, I’ll throw one out there. He hasn’t gotten as much exposure as Karl Wachter or Liban Jama, but Carter Verone from St Mary’s looked good in his first meet back two weeks ago. He could definitely score a point or two in a mid distance event if he can make it into finals.

Biggest dark horse might be Sean Lonergan. 4:21 in his first race this indoor season. We'll see what he does this weekend at Tostrud, but he could be a serious competitor for a tactical conference mile, given his 800 background.