National Top XC Boys 2017

RockAndRoll wrote:

Other teams that could challenge for a spot on the podium at NXN are Wayzata from Minnesota and Carmel from Indiana.

Springville is currently a strong Utah team based on what they return from last XC season and the 3200 times.

Downers North Grove is a strong program from Illinois with its impressive 3200 times.

The Woodlands is another great team that is returning 4 runners from a team that finished 8th at NXN last year. They have great depth also.

CBA once again had great 3200 times this spring and always has had strong XC programs but they haven't performed their best at NXN since 2013.

I agree with this. Springville and Timpanogos are likely the "teams to beat" out of Utah, but American Fork and Davis always seem to reload.

Outside of those Utah Schools, Wayzata and Carmel have great 3200 times going in to the XC season.

I can still see American Fork beating Timpanogos this year. I know that losing Casey Clinger, Johns, and Parker will be huge, but AF has better top 5 3200 m PRs of the returners.

AF:

9:39, 9:50, 9:56, 9:57, 10:06

Timpanogos:

9:32, 9:48, 10:04, 10:05, 10:11.

AF's 3200 m times this spring showed that the returners made lots of improvements in the off season. They will continue to make big improvements during the summer and fall.

RockAndRoll wrote:

I can still see American Fork beating Timpanogos this year. I know that losing Casey Clinger, Johns, and Parker will be huge, but AF has better top 5 3200 m PRs of the returners.

AF:

9:39, 9:50, 9:56, 9:57, 10:06

Timpanogos:

9:32, 9:48, 10:04, 10:05, 10:11.

AF's 3200 m times this spring showed that the returners made lots of improvements in the off season. They will continue to make big improvements during the summer and fall.

Certainly possible. Timpanogos has an experience advantage over AF. Timo has a lot of young kids that were track all-stars in junior high that are starting to get in some good miles and, as you pointed out, post some good 3200 times. We'll see what that translates to on the grass of XC. AF will likely look a lot more like Davis this year-- strong, tight pack of a bunch of very good runners, though perhaps missing a star low-stick.

Timpanogos also lacks a "star" this year (with J. Benson graduated). In that way, Springville has a leg up on the competition by returning Gardner (#2 at State) and B. Garnica (#4 at State).

Something I posted back in March is worth repeating for those who have narrow minds:

Sam Affolder's FATHER'S career brings about frequent change in their family -- and that means lots of moving. Regular uprooting/relocation goes with the territory -- being in the US Army -- it's the norm. Most of us know an "army brat" -- someone who attended X number of schools in X number of years in X number of locales because the father and/or mother was/were bounced around in the military. Just remember, it's not the kids who brought on the change, but a parent or parents who's service to the US called for geographic change.

And Col. (didn’t I read of this rank in one of the news stories?) Affolder's US Army career will now take him to the Pentagon for the couple of years that just happen to coincide with son Sam's last two years of high school. And his father is willing to sacrifice a fairly big chunk of his own comfort -- I'm talking about the daily commute between home and the Pentagon -- by giving his amazing son Sam an incredible GIFT -- a chance to be part of a high school running program which will be mutually beneficial to Sam and his teammates and coaches.

You hear from time to time of parents who do amazing things to give their kids opportunities that wouldn't come otherwise. I'd say Sam going to Loudoun Valley is one example. As Col. Affolder is stuck in traffic coming home from the Pentagon, no doubt his impatience with the lunacy of the roads will be eased at least a little bit by his firm satisfaction with his decision to put Sam into GREAT hands at LVHS, with GREAT teammates and GREAT coaches.

This is not a case of parents uprooting their elite athlete son simply for the sake of conveniently plopping him into an elite high school program. Again, the root cause of the relocation is a career move that brings Col. Affolder to the DC area. The parents had to choose where, in a major metropolitan area, they wanted to live. Given Sam's resume, and the chance for him to attain even loftier goals within the right running program, I think it's pretty damn impressive that LVHS has been chosen. Impressive, as in way to go, Col. and Mrs. Affolder! LVHS didn’t choose Sam Affolder; the Affolders chose LVHS.

This is the year when a non-Utah school has a chance to qualify for NXN from the Southwest Region. Palmer Ridge from Colorado has a great chance to qualify. They had 4 non seniors under 9:54 last spring, and a 10:06. So out of all the teams in the SW region, they have the best top 5 3200 m PRs of the returners.

Our team has four under 9:55 and a low 10 guy. We probably won't even be top five in IL this year.

Colorado has a good team wrote:

This is the year when a non-Utah school has a chance to qualify for NXN from the Southwest Region. Palmer Ridge from Colorado has a great chance to qualify. They had 4 non seniors under 9:54 last spring, and a 10:06. So out of all the teams in the SW region, they have the best top 5 3200 m PRs of the returners.

Colorado has a good team wrote:

This is the year when a non-Utah school has a chance to qualify for NXN from the Southwest Region. Palmer Ridge from Colorado has a great chance to qualify. They had 4 non seniors under 9:54 last spring, and a 10:06. So out of all the teams in the SW region, they have the best top 5 3200 m PRs of the returners.

Springville:

9:06

9:21

9:51

10:04

10:13

I'd give Springville the edge over Palmer Ridge.

Timpanogos is also in the NXRSW conversation with a lot of low-10 guys, but the lack of a great "low-stick" could hurt.

AF has a 9:39, 9:50, 9:56, 9:57, 10:06 (all sophomores) and a proven track record of producing quality XC runners, so I'd give them the edge over Palmer Ridge as well. I think the Southwest Region will lack a dominate team as in years past, but from my quick perusal, UT teams are still likely the frontrunners.

SayWhatNow? wrote:

Colorado has a good team wrote:

This is the year when a non-Utah school has a chance to qualify for NXN from the Southwest Region. Palmer Ridge from Colorado has a great chance to qualify. They had 4 non seniors under 9:54 last spring, and a 10:06. So out of all the teams in the SW region, they have the best top 5 3200 m PRs of the returners.

Springville:

9:06

9:21

9:51

10:04

10:13

I'd give Springville the edge over Palmer Ridge.

Timpanogos is also in the NXRSW conversation with a lot of low-10 guys, but the lack of a great "low-stick" could hurt.

AF has a 9:39, 9:50, 9:56, 9:57, 10:06 (all sophomores) and a proven track record of producing quality XC runners, so I'd give them the edge over Palmer Ridge as well. I think the Southwest Region will lack a dominate team as in years past, but from my quick perusal, UT teams are still likely the frontrunners.

How many of these times were run at altitude? 9:55 is more low 9:40's at sea level, so the distinction matters.

For those that are interested, I will be doing national rankings starting this year and if you are interested I will be posting updates once the season starts, or when big information hits, at HighSchoolHarrier.Com. Constructive criticism is always welcome. Here are my boys rankings for the pre-season. Girls rankings will be out soon. Information on the rankings are listed at the site if you are interested.

Rank-Team-Region-Surety Rating

1) Loudoun Valley (SE) 8.5- LV is making a big jump this year. The VA 4A state champs and 3rd place NXN SE finisher looked strong heading into the season but now even more so after a couple top notch transfers have declared including a 9:02 runner in Sam Affolder.

2) Great Oak (CA) 8- D1 state champs last year and 5th place at NXN, Great Oak is now synonymous with top level consistent performance. They have the fastest average of returning teams in the 3200 with a 9:25 and could lead a contingent of CA team that may include as many as 4 squads this year at NXN.

3) Downers Grove North (MW) 8- DGN made it to NXN last year and finished 12th after winning IL 3A and placing runner-up at NXR MW. The majority of that team returns this year and their experience should help them go far at nationals.

4) Christian Brothers(NE) 8- Perennial powerhouse CBA was third at NJ MOC last fall and placed first at NXR NE then 7th at NXN. They return a strong squad that averaged 9:28 this spring.

5) Wayzata (H) 8- While Wayzata graduated some important runners, everyone else in the Heartland graduated more. Last year they placed 11th at NXN to go along with a MN 2A and NXR Heartland title. The top 5 averaged 9:30 in the spring.

6) Carmel (MW) 7.5- After finishing runner-up at the Indiana state meet and 7th at NXR MW, the Carmel boys hit the track hard, averaging 9:28 for 3200.

7) Loyola (CA) 7.5- The D2 runner-up at state brings back a solid crew that averaged 9:28 during track.

8) Jesuit (NW) 7.5- While only finishing 3rd at OR 6A with no post season finishes as a team, Jesuit averaged 8:52 in the spring for 3k which easily translates to sub 9:30 for 3200.

9) Springville (SW) 8- Another region where graduation opens up some big gaps. After placing 4th in UT 4A and third at NXR SW regional, Springville placed 15th at NXN and return five runners from that squad. They averaged 9:43 for 3200 in track.

10) Dana Hills (CA) 7- Bringing back 4 from their runner-up team at CA D1 state last year, the Dana Hills boys averaged 9:41 this spring. There is a chance they could improve on their 14th place finish last year at NXN.

11) St. Johns (NE) 7- While only finishing 6th at NXR NE last year, St. John’s had a great year on the track averaging 9:36 for 2 miles.

12) Burnt Hills (NY) 7.5- 6th place at NXR NY last year with only one senior in the top 5, Burnt Hills also won NY B then placed 2nd at Feds. Their spring 3200 average was 9:37.

13) Woodlands College Park (S) 7.5- College Park finished at 9th in TX 6A, then runner-up at NXR South before finishing 21st at NXN. They returned enough talent and experience to run 9:39 for their returning 3200 average.

14) Roosevelt (CA) 6.5- 3rd in CA D1 last year, Roosevelt finished out the year hot with their top 5 returners hitting 9:28 average for 3200, all of whom ran at XC state.

15) St. Xavier (SE) 7.5- Returning 6 of 7 from last year’s 13th place team at NXN should get them back in the big dance. The returners bring the slowest 3200 average from the spring on this list at 9:49. St. Xavier was runner-up at NXR SE after winning KY 3A.

16) Flower Mound (S) 6.5- 3rd in TX 6A then 6th at NXR South, Flower Mound gets the nod over the Woodlands this year due to low stick Alex Maier who will also be looking for top individual honors. Their spring 3200 average was 9:36

17) Staples (NE) 7- With a competent fifth runner, last year’s 22nd place NXN squad could return as four of their top 5 come back. Staples won New Englands, was NXR NE runner-up and averaged 9:44 last year.

18) Woodlands (S) 6.5- Your TX 6A state champions from last year looked in contention for a national title but struggled at NXR South finishing 3rd and getting in on the wildcard before finishing 8th at NXN. They look like they will be in the same position this year, getting in on at least a wildcard bid. Woodlands averaged 9:42 this past spring. They were last years Hoka Postal Nats runner-up last year with a 9:20 avg.

19) Central Valley (NW) 6.5- Second in WA 4A last year but only 11th at NXR NW, CV helped themselves this spring by averaging 9:43 on the track.

20) Middleton (H) 6.5- Finishing 3rd in WI D1, Middleton did not move on to compete in Nike Heartland. They made good progress in the spring, though, and is averaging 9:41 with top 7 all under 10.

21) Palmer Ridge (SW) 6- PR is barely sliding in over the rest of the field currently but their 9:49 average for returners is enough to get it done for the time being. Palmer placed 7th last year in the NXR SW regional. They were also the CO 4A champions last year.

22) Niskayuna (NY) 6.5- After a very rough race at NXR NY in 2016 (13th overall), the squad developed a tight pack during the track season having a 26 second spread and a 9:44 average.

apples to apples wrote:

SayWhatNow? wrote:

Springville:

9:06

9:21

9:51

10:04

10:13

I'd give Springville the edge over Palmer Ridge.

Timpanogos is also in the NXRSW conversation with a lot of low-10 guys, but the lack of a great "low-stick" could hurt.

AF has a 9:39, 9:50, 9:56, 9:57, 10:06 (all sophomores) and a proven track record of producing quality XC runners, so I'd give them the edge over Palmer Ridge as well. I think the Southwest Region will lack a dominate team as in years past, but from my quick perusal, UT teams are still likely the frontrunners.

How many of these times were run at altitude? 9:55 is more low 9:40's at sea level, so the distinction matters.

Those times are all at altitude (4500ft), excepting the two top Springville runners. Their 3200 bests (at altitude) are 9:19 and 9:24, respectively. All AF times are at 4500' as well.

in other news, all of oklahoma still sucks, except for our 800m runners.

Green Hope (NC)

Returns

5k- 15:28, 15:38, 15:47, 16:03, 16:07 avg- 15:48

1600- 4:15, 4:17, 4:19, 4:26, 4:26, 4:28- avg 4:21

3200- 9:27, 9:30, 9:40, 9:48, 9:51- avg 9:39

Majority of Palmer Ridges times are all at 5500ft and above. They sit at 7300ft! FYI: Palmer Ridge had 5 guys in before Wayzata #1 recently in there annual Incline challenge on the famous Manitou Springs Incline. Palmer Ridges top 3 guys crushed the previous course record and all well under 22:40! Previous record was by 23:11. Palmer Ridge had 8 guys under 24:40. Team to watch!

Not a chance in hell The Woodlands is third best in Texas

Palmer Ridge hosts a hillclimb race in their backyard and beats a team from sea-level that has access to no major climbs: truly amazing.

Texas XC Watcher wrote:

Not a chance in hell The Woodlands is third best in Texas

Does that mean you think they should be higher or lower?

logic fan wrote:

Palmer Ridge hosts a hillclimb race in their backyard and beats a team from sea-level that has access to no major climbs: truly amazing.

This made me laugh.

Better, in my opinion, they had a relatively mediocre distance track season, but their returning depth will be a great asset. They had 5 underclassmen with significant varsity experience, and would probably be the best in Texas even if they all made just marginal improvement. I do think that the Texas teams on the whole will be lower in the national standings and would be lucky to get 3 teams to nxn.

Texas XC Watcher wrote:

Better, in my opinion, they had a relatively mediocre distance track season, but their returning depth will be a great asset. They had 5 underclassmen with significant varsity experience, and would probably be the best in Texas even if they all made just marginal improvement. I do think that the Texas teams on the whole will be lower in the national standings and would be lucky to get 3 teams to nxn.

Duly noted. I have three going right now because I think any gap between Woodlands and Flower Mound will be closed by state/Nike South, but its really going to come down to the 5th runners for both squads. I think if Woodlands are third at NXR South they get the bid, but if they are first or second, only two TX teams go most likely, depending on how the other regions look. I think some good squads out of SE and NW might be worth looking at for invites should they not get the auto-qualifier.