I'm almost speechless: VP at Nike thinks the odds are greater than 30% that sub-2 happens

Any chance the first three finishers will be drug tested after the race?

The pacers going the whole way might have an effect greater than 4 seconds per mile, because running 1m behind one runner has that effect, according to this article. (Estimates on the track are often about 2s/lap for drafting) Why is 4 seconds significant? Now, the wr mile of Kimetto had pacers a long way, probably at least 30k, so we're only talking about an extra 12k or 7.5M, which would be about a 30s advantage. But it would be more of an advantage if multiple pacemakers are blocking more of the wind, to the extent that it might be more like 6s/M beyond Kimetto's, so 45 seconds. That brings it potentially down close to 2:02. Not nearly enough. But the big windscreen on the pace car if it is close enough might well be the major factor why they apparently think this is possible and are pumping up the shoes and pacers and ability of Kipchoge to get around that. We don't know whether there are doping controls for these runners. If the windscreen makes the drafting effect more like an extra 4 seconds beyond the guess of 6s/mile for multiple pacers through 30k (and perfect pacing with the car and the fresh pacemakers as well), and then 10s/M after that, we have a drop of about 74 seconds from Kimetto through 30k and another 75s after that. Now we would have 2:29 drop, meaning that you go potentially from 2:02:57 to 2:00:28. Then passing the drinks and carbs to him and the course could make the difference. (If the shoes have any effect and it is not from making them function like a spring, loaded by each landing and propelling him forward like those Spyra shoes enabled low 26 road 10ks in Detroit a few years back, it might be because the shoes decrease soreness the day after, which might well mean that they also decrease the fatigue in the calves during the race, which would definitely help in the last 10M).

Of course, those time estimates for drafting may be well off. I've seen a 1s drafting effect estimated per lap for the mile, where the speed is much quicker than the target here obviously, and so the wind advantage much greater. But I think that it is quite reasonable to think that this effort is going to depend largely on the windscreen of the pace car and very much secondarily on the extra pacing.

https://runnersconnect.net/running-in-windy-conditions/

There is no chance all three will finish.Has there been any talk about what will happen if/when they fall off pace? Will they finish? If they are off by a minute or so late with no chance at Sub2 will they try for low 2?

Oh how wrong you are, bozo brain.

If they do it, at first the equipment will be costly, but over time mass production and sales will lower the costs to consumers.

rojo wrote:

“I have always thought we had a 30% chance because there are so many factors beyond our control. But as we have got closer, I have started to think the odds are much higher. The confidence is contagious. None of our three athletes think it is impossible. We are shooting for history.”

That quote blows my mind. I mean we aren't anywhere close to a sub-2. It's just not going to happen unless those shoes indeed are "cheater's shoes" as JK said.

What a missed opportunity for Nike. He should have said it's a 100% chance. Then they'd have even MORE people tuning in, thinking, "I can't wait to see this! I can't wait to see them fail! They're so wrong, and I'm gonna prove it by watching them fail!"

Nice long response, but it's not going to happen that way. The pacers went about 30k for Dennis. So then, according to many who rip Paula for having someone run next to her, his record is invalid, he was paced by people "in front of him, more than one". I disagree and believe he has the world record, but they overly smart ones on this site claim Paula was paced, which I disagree, but then why is Dennis not guilty of the same scrutiny? How does that work? They'll go quite a ways at 4:34ish pace, then repeated 9:08 2 miles will get tough, really tough. You'll see;)

If it happens, it would be the windscreen. Cyclists have gotten up to 160 behind a windscreen and even a century ago did 76 miles in 60 minutes behind a specially outfitted train on a track with boards to ride on. So, a windscreen would bring substantial benefits. I'd much rather the event be allowed its natural evolution (that is, without exhibitions like this and with better drug testing in-country in Kenya and Ethiopia).

I was also sort of surprised that I saw betting odds were 26% earlier today. I felt like maybe I had some "insider knowledge", namely understanding running better than outsiders who I imagined were doing the betting. Also, I didn't take Nike's publicly stated predictions too seriously, since I figured they were just marketing and didn't actually believe it internally. After all, maybe they'd do the event even if they thought it would definitely 'fail', because it just seemed like a fun event and lots of publicity either way...plus 30 years from now when somebody does break 2 they could say "it all started with us, Nike, back in 2017 with our Breaking 2 project" etc.

But boy, was I wrong. First, my confidence in markets has gone up. Two, my cynicism about pronouncements of CEOs has gone down. Third, holy crap, Eliud Kipchoge is the f'ing man.

because nike know the dope involved , simple as that .

The odds sure were looking greater than 30% with just 8 minutes to go! Holy Shite, that was close.

The problem is your inability to read english. I said I 58:30 guy can run 18 miles at 2 hour pace. You are the idiot who thinks the way to run 18 miles at 2 hour pace is to run the first 13.1 miles at 58:30 pace. Makes me think you have never run a race in your life.

Now that the race has been run, who looks more foolish: The nike person who gave it a 30% chance or RoJo who gave it a 0%? I am leaning towards RoJo. Maybe this was the best possible outcome (they run it 100 times and he never runs faster than 2:00:20). Or maybe it was just an average one (30 times he runs 1:59:55). We have no real way of knowing. We are talking about the differences where a couple degrees lower temp might have been the difference. I sort of doubt that this will happen again though. Not sure how many elite marathoners in their prime will do stunts like this. There aren't many marathoners who have the peak of kipchoge and who consistently show up.