BTC, no history of success at marathon, yet.
Fitness appeared good back in November, but has he raced this year? It's very easy to over-train and bury previous good form, and as with most American marathoners recently that has resulted in sub-par performances.
What was his training like during his taper ... pace, effort, mileage, how did his legs feel?
With his credentials he should be able to break 2:10. However, considering the above, I'm guessing 2:13+, but hope I'm wrong.