Gary, would you like to learn something new today? You seem to believe Trump knows what he's doing regarding trade (I guess you associate that with him being a businessman?). First ask yourself why he's picking a fight with China and not Russia. Then ask yourself why now when he could have done this at any point over the last year, given how pressing he's made the issue sound in the past. If you can't think through that, don't worry, focus on my next points. Here are the potential methods of retaliation by the Chinese:
1. Higher tariffs on selected US exports - items that China could afford to import less include seeds and fruit, aircraft, metals, wood, ores, raw hides. These are a few that already amount to tens of billions in lost business to US companies. So all those farmers who back him would get a nice little surprise.
2. Hurt US business interests - you say their borders are closed to US businesses but you are dead wrong. True they aren't open in the sense ours is, but many US firms already generate significant shares of their revenues from China. These are done mostly through joint ventures. If they start restricting these partnerships it would hurt our businesses. A crack down on US tech manufacturing would be extremely painful.
3. Move to shrink the services surplus. There are endless options here, including providing preferential access to other countries, depreciating the yuan, and selling US treasuries. With the latter they have significant leverage just like our Treasury department.
4. Limit the number of Chinese students who attend US schools. Your first reaction to this is applause I'm sure, but you have no idea how significant a role they have played in ensuring US higher education remains dominant and not to mention the fact that these top students often remain to help US businesses thrive. You want to choke out more talent from here, this would be a good way.
You might be thinking there has to be a number of ways the US could put up a good fight. If you are a history buff you'd know that we have been dominant in global trade for decades and that process has matured a long time ago lending to flatter growth as we have gone from a manufacturing-focused country to services-focused. This is normal and not a bad thing as our GDP is still massive and by far highest on a per capita basis. We will never compete with China or other third world nations on manufacturing, it is simply mathematically impossible given the cheapness of their labor and raw materials. The other aspect that leads to massive exposure is the fact that our economy has become truly global as we have chased cheaper and more efficient production methods. That means there are numerous ways to hurt us, unlike China.
So now you might be thinking, so we just keep losing??? At this moment you should consider opening your eyes to the fact that we have been winning and that its not a zero sum game. Global GDP has continued to grow, we just have participated in a smaller share of that than before since we have a much more mature economy. So we have been winning anyway. You might want to ask yourself if we are doing so well economically, then why is the middle class crushed and our standard of living continues to decline. That has a lot more to do with domestic policies than anything else. The ability of US businesses becoming more profitable has had very little impact on your wallet. The trickle down effect was a simple lie. I know you love simple solutions, but that concept simply doesn't hold water. We are where we are because capitalism has taken control of politics and the super wealthy have made the system work more to their advantage. So while you mock and dismiss socialism in Europe, you completely ignore the fact that it has worked very well for their average joes. They have been able to keep holding government accountable and make them work for the people and not for special interest groups. Koch brothers and Warrens don't exist over there, ask yourself why.
Back to trade. Think about the consequences of the above to US consumers. We cannot afford a trade war with China. Trump has nothing to lose and he thinks this will show his base that he is a tough guy ahead of midterms. Do you think he will care that the pick up truck, gun, iPhone, or clothes you buy will cost 15-20% more?