Deena"s near miss of the AR

I realize that most people on this board have no idea whether this is possible or not, but I will throw it out there anyway.

1. New York and Chicago Marathons are huge rivals.

2. Shamrock Shuffle in Chicago is the largest most successfull 8k in the US. This pissed off the NYRR who needed to be on the map during that time of the year so they began hosting the US 8k championships (a very nice move).

3. Deena talks about a US record in NY (keep in mind that Chicago has already locked her up for this fall). This pisses off the people in Chicago.

4. Deena is way under pace and mysteriously slows way up and blames it on a head wind, to miss the record by 3 seconds. The guys splits are completely different.

5. I predict that Deena will break the US record next Sunday in Chicago and will be the Queen of Chicago for the next 6 months in preparation for a sub 2:20 (another american record) in the marathon.

Had she of broken the record in NY it would have hurt her ability to market herself in Chicago over the next 6 months.

hey that 10 meter incline at the 7k mark was huge and even all the trees and bushes couldn't block out the strong winds.

OK sure. But it heavily worked out in her favor. The 25k was chump change in comparison with what she will be making over the next six months in the windy city. Smart move Deena. The script played out perfectly. All the hype for a potential AR with the NY media. And the AR will now take place in Chicago.

So what if she did do it on purpose. I doubt she did. But lets just say for argument sake she did do it. Why would that be a big deal. They probably will give her more money at the Shamrock Shuffle. It is funny though that because of NY's 8k they now have a race called the Shamrock Shuffle 2 and a 1/2 weeks after St.Patricks day.

What does "market herself in Chicago over the next 6 months" mean? Is that in reference to how much of an appearance fee she would get? I think this one is a stretch....

Oh wait, now I get it...why wouldn't she just break it twice?

Hmm, she had the AR splits written on her hand like a kid cheating on a HS algebra test so she'd know NOT to run that fast? And sprinted the last 200m like a madwoman just to make it look good? Listen, I watched the entire race from the lead truck and she hammered her ass off right from the get go (well, they ran 81 first lap on the track, which might have done things in as much as the hill/wind). I think you're giving her credit for being more devious/calculating than she is.

VA Beach wrote:

What does "market herself in Chicago over the next 6 months" mean? Is that in reference to how much of an appearance fee she would get? I think this one is a stretch....

Because she has 6 months between now and the marathon, where she will try to break 2:20. The angle is simple. "Deena realizes that Chicago is for records and embraces the city...the city in turn embraces her". I have already read the copy.

JimG wrote:

I think you're giving her credit for being more devious/calculating than she is.

Not her. Ray Flynn and Carey had already worked it out. However, if the weather doesn't cooperate next Sunday it doesn't matter.

Is it really a near miss? I have always wondered when someone misses something by a little bit they call it a near miss. To me a near miss implies they made it, but it was near missing. She was not near missing, she just plain missed it.

Because it means more to break a 20 year old record than it does to break an 8 day old record.

Conspiracy Theorist wrote:

5. I predict that Deena will break the US record next Sunday in Chicago and will be the Queen of Chicago for the next 6 months in preparation for a sub 2:20 (another american record) in the marathon.

If she was that crafty and capable, why wouldn't she break it yesterday by one second; collect $25K; head to Chicago with better headline and challenge ("AR Holder Kastor Attempts to Break 25:00 in 8K"), and then collect some more money?

Although some from the Psych ward may challenge her reign, Deena was Queen of Randall's Island yesterday.

Because it means more to break a 20 year old record than it does to break an 8 day old record.

this implies a measure of control over performance factors that is non-existant. she wanted to break the record, she missed it......this isn't indoor track where next week she can go back to the same track & try again & not have to worry about wind direction, temp, etc......this is early spring road racing, where next week the weather could be totally crap. the chicago race could end up being held in flurries & a massive head wind.

trying to hold out for a bigger payday & build suspense is foolish.....deena may not get another real shot at the record until next year.

conspiracy theory is an idiot & possibly a troll. go away.

Not if no one is watching.

In terms of significance, I agree, but you are claiming this is a marketing campaign.

I am not an insider, but it seems to me that an appearance fee is already worked out with the Chicago marathon and that the best possible OVERALL outcome for Deena would have been to break the record twice as many other people have stated.

I think you are fishing for something that isn't there.

I was standing on the straightaway at the 80-meters-to-go point. After coaching track for 27 years, I feel like I can tell when someone's going all-out with ten seconds left in a distance race. Even if I'd never seen Deena Kastor before, I'd have been sure that the woman was flat-out sprinting. An announcer was counting down the seconds over a loudspeaker and she was 100% going for it.

But rather than not having seen her before, I was coaching in Southern Cal the whole time she was at Agoura HS, and my teams raced hers regularly; I was also at the last two US track OTs (which includes her 5K against Jacobs) and her Athens race, and I have a good sense of what this particular runner looks like going all-out. I'm completely convinced that she wanted the record. The only way she could've tanked was by backing off ultra-strategically before getting onto the track for the final lap, so as to still be able to finish full-out and miss the time. Does anyone really think she did that, assuming it's even possible?

Doesn't this all assume she would be willing to forgo $25,000? I don't see any reason she'd ever do that.

Mtn Dew wrote:

Doesn't this all assume she would be willing to forgo $25,000? I don't see any reason she'd ever do that.

With her agent standing right there w/ 120m to go? Not bloody likely. Distance running isn't like the PV or HJ, where you can choose to break the record by the smallest margin possible (Bubka used to call it "slicing the baloney").