Junior Kenyan 800m runners

They werent over trained and burned out like US kids are.

We should cancel T&F aand just time trial our HS seniors after a month or 2 of training and I'm sure we'll find plenty of 1:44 guys.

I agree. If there is one race where people overthink or overwork the training, it's the 800m. The consequence is lots of runners busting a gut to underperform.

Please explain wrote:

I just had a look at the 2015 junior 800m rankings on the IAAF website. The top 5 are all Kenyan, 4 of which ran sub 1:45 and 1 sub 1:44. Most do not have any progression visible on their profiles, showing how they improved over the years, they just popped into 2015 or 2014 with a 1:45 or 1:44 performance.

How is this possible? Are these performances to be believed? Why are there no European or American runners who manage world class times their first year of running?

Those athletes could be any age, I am talking about possibly late 20s. African junior performances are a 'well known' joke. African juniors will often have no progression, no record of H.S. or any type of age category performances. The IAAF all-time junior list is populated by athletes who came on the scene supposedly at age 18 and never ran much faster than their junior marks most likely because they were actually already in their mid to late-20s.

The top-10 all-time junior 800m performances:

Nijel Amos

Mohammed Aman

Timothy Kitum

Abubaker Kaki

Abraham Kipchirchir Rotich

Leonard Kirwa Kosencha

Japheth Kimutai

Edwin Kiplagat Melly

David Mutinda Mutua

Belal Ali Mansoor

8 of these athletes never improved upon their junior marks and the average improvement for all of these athletes on average is only .14%. While the top-10 non-African athletes have an average improvement of 2.56%...that alone should tell you all you need to know.

Of course there is the possibility that they aren't actually juniors. I am still confused as to how anyone at any age can arrive on the scene with 1:45 or 1:44.

Do you think the athletes could possibly be changing their names? Having minor careers running 1:47s then when they improve to 1:44 runners they change their names (and DOB) and then start a new career as a junior.

I agree, there can't be a 16 year old running 1:45, especially multiple ones. That would guarantee the 800m record to be broken within the next 10 years or so.

Please explain wrote:

Of course there is the possibility that they aren't actually juniors. I am still confused as to how anyone at any age can arrive on the scene with 1:45 or 1:44.

Do you think the athletes could possibly be changing their names? Having minor careers running 1:47s then when they improve to 1:44 runners they change their names (and DOB) and then start a new career as a junior.

Yes, this is what they do. It is facilitated by lax record keeping of births, etc in their home country.

well you see.. wrote:

They werent over trained and burned out like US kids are.

We should cancel T&F aand just time trial our HS seniors after a month or 2 of training and I'm sure we'll find plenty of 1:44 guys.

BULLSHlT

They are 22-27 years old

Please explain wrote:

Of course there is the possibility that they aren't actually juniors. I am still confused as to how anyone at any age can arrive on the scene with 1:45 or 1:44.

Do you think the athletes could possibly be changing their names? Having minor careers running 1:47s then when they improve to 1:44 runners they change their names (and DOB) and then start a new career as a junior.

re: "Do you think the athletes could possibly be changing their names? Having minor careers running 1:47s then when they improve to 1:44 runners they change their names (and DOB) and then start a new career as a junior."

Yes, that has happen several times. Qatar and Bahrain have showed up to world juniors with athletes who had actually run for a African country as a junior and then ran for Qatar or Bahrain as a junior several years later under a different name and DOB.

BCquestions wrote:

I agree, there can't be a 16 year old running 1:45, especially multiple ones. That would guarantee the 800m record to be broken within the next 10 years or so.

One year the top-3 finishers at world-youths 16/17 yo ran 1:43x. Absolutely insane!

I like bread wrote:

Please explain wrote:

Of course there is the possibility that they aren't actually juniors. I am still confused as to how anyone at any age can arrive on the scene with 1:45 or 1:44.

Do you think the athletes could possibly be changing their names? Having minor careers running 1:47s then when they improve to 1:44 runners they change their names (and DOB) and then start a new career as a junior.

Yes, this is what they do. It is facilitated by lax record keeping of births, etc in their home country.

As 2003 about half of all Kenyans where born in a hospital and had a birth record. I am guessing that number is higher now. Even with a birth record, there are numerous ways of estimating someone's DOB to with in a year. The problem is simply flat out cheating. There is an enormous economic incentive, unfortunately a Kenyan running a 3:35 1500 does not mean much unless he is 18 years old.

There are other possible explanations for early success besides age cheating. Most people in the world run peak 400m & and peak 800m times in one's early twenties. I don't know what "special vitamins" one gets when one runs for shoe companies and 29 year olds are setting PR's in 800m. In US, we think nothing of high school lads running sub-47 400m. If our hs sub-47 400m kids also raced 800m, many of our kids would be sub-1:46 while still in hs. How many of us in 2008 (age 18) thought Asbel Kiprop's age may be wrong? I think he's 25 and still doing well. Billy Konchellah ran 400 & 800 well as a 19yr. old. Billy Konchellah was still very good in his late 20's. It's not just Africans whom are good early in 800m. Ovett was 5th @ age 20 in 800m in 1976 Olympics.

ironside wrote:

If our hs sub-47 400m kids also raced 800m, many of our kids would be sub-1:46 while still in hs.

That's all there is to it. How can anyone expect an American junior to run a fast 800? If they have the speed, they get burned out chasing points in sprints and relays. If they have the stamina, they're burned out doubling or tripling from 800 to 3200. The existence of the 4x800 makes things even worse.

Elite track is not a team sport. Even if one country gets a lot of medals, nobody "wins" the meets. US prep is taking the wrong approach to developing individual champions.

Great. Now show us some facts.

Actually it's true.

In Kenya some of the students run to and from school. Then if they want to go see a friend, they run there. Then they run home from there.

None of that is interval training.

But Americans want to believe that all their interval track running gets it done. Arthur Lydiard knew this was wrong in the 1960s but people still refuse to listen.

Sub 47 for the 400m is nowhere near the quality of a sub 1:45 for the 800m. Sub 1:45 is comfortably inside the Olympic qualifying mark and a world class (top 20) time for most given years.

Also, most 46 second 400m runners are not of the 800m type, they don't and won't ever have the endurance to run the 800. They aren't being burnt out, they are just better at the 400m.

ironside wrote:

There are other possible explanations for early success besides age cheating. Most people in the world run peak 400m & and peak 800m times in one's early twenties. I don't know what "special vitamins" one gets when one runs for shoe companies and 29 year olds are setting PR's in 800m. In US, we think nothing of high school lads running sub-47 400m. If our hs sub-47 400m kids also raced 800m, many of our kids would be sub-1:46 while still in hs. How many of us in 2008 (age 18) thought Asbel Kiprop's age may be wrong? I think he's 25 and still doing well. Billy Konchellah ran 400 & 800 well as a 19yr. old. Billy Konchellah was still very good in his late 20's. It's not just Africans whom are good early in 800m. Ovett was 5th @ age 20 in 800m in 1976 Olympics.

Many of our best 800m runners are 400m runners who never move up to train for the 800m. The US has a lot of 400m and 400m hurdle talent that could run great 800m races.

TrackCoach wrote:

I like bread wrote:

Yes, this is what they do. It is facilitated by lax record keeping of births, etc in their home country.

As 2003 about half of all Kenyans where born in a hospital and had a birth record. I am guessing that number is higher now. Even with a birth record, there are numerous ways of estimating someone's DOB to with in a year. The problem is simply flat out cheating. There is an enormous economic incentive, unfortunately a Kenyan running a 3:35 1500 does not mean much unless he is 18 years old.

I assume you mean cheating by means other than changing birth year. And you would be wrong - or at least making an unsubstantiated claim.

If you are a junior (18-19), your times will have improved by leaps and bounds from the previous year, compared to someone going from 24 to 25. It may also be your first year competing at IAAF-level meets, so the "progression" charts would start then.

BTW, Kenyans born in 2003 are now 12 years old.

Jeb Clampett is 100% wrong! Who told Clampett Kenyans don't do intervals? David Rudisha largely follows the writings of Peter Coe & David Martin, PhD. Clampett is wrong in regard to 800m and Lydiard. Prior to US runners following Lydiard, we in US used to send 45+ 400m men as our Olympic 800m runners. Lydiard's philosophy: all 800m to Marathoners run 100 miles per week. Too many US university XC coaches are killing the speed of our 800m men during xc season.

Interestingly only 4 of the last 16 Olympic 800m champions (going back to 1948) have run under 3:36.20 (qualifying time for the 1500).

I'd consider 10 of the 16 to be 4/8 types or 800m guys leaning towards the 400m end.

Of the last 10, I know of only two (William Tauni and Steve Ovett) who would have averaged more than 60 miles a week.(Rudisha, Bungei, Borzakovskiy, Schumann, Rodal, Ereng, Cruz and Juantorena - would not have)