ironside wrote:
responding to D1 guy: 15:25 5000 metres on track leads me to believe 10K of 32:46 on rolling terrain. Obviously he can improve! I add 40 seconds for 10K XC from 10,000 metres track. Name me schools with 7 guys who run sub-30:20 10K? Syracuse doesn't have seven sub-30:20 10,000 metres men! I asked for his 400 & 800 PB to gauge range for improvement.
Your math is way too aggressive.
My math:
15:25 5K track equals
32:20 10K track then
add 10 secs per mile for grass + more for hills
so, I would have him at
33:30 or higher for 10K XC
then, deduct for YTY improvement
I'll give hime 32:30, NOT sub-30:20!
But, they key point is that most D1 programs don't want a 15:25 5K track guy. They don't even want 15:25 5K XC guys en route on a 8K.
Better (not great) D1 guys are 15:00 +/- at 5K en route to a 24:30 - sub 25:00 8K.
Not saying the kid couldn't walk on somewhere, but unless he goes to a really bad D1 program, he ain't gonna compete much.