9:32 3200 last weekend on about 35 mpw, what could I get in 5000 a year from now with 60 mpw and more strength training?

With a 9:30 you'll probably be running for a good school next year. Follow your coaches plan, don't think about time, and execute. You'll know in a year.

It is impossible to say how much faster you will be, maybe what you're doing right now is ideal for you, maybe it isn't. That said, I'd wager that with more mileage you will improve.

I know someone that ran 9:20 in the 3200 off 25 - 35 mpw as a HS Sr and a 14:45 in the 5000 off 80 mpw as a Col Frosh.

A 9:20 translates to about a 15:05, so he had good improvement. I thought he'd go lower (9:3X), but he's still adjusting to the increase in volume and intensity.

A 9:32 translates to about a 15:25, so I think you can hit 15:15 off 60 mpw. Maybe even sub 15. But, my guess is that you'll be running >> 60 mpw and you'll be shocked by the increase in intensity, assuming that you run DI.

Good luck!

I ran 9:35 as a HS senior on about 50mpw. We ran about 70mpw my freshman year in college. I ran 15:05 off of that. My college PR (junior year) was 14:29.

I ran 9:55 in HS with about ten 90 mile weeks every summer and 50 mpw the rest of the year. I ran 15:00 as a sophomore on 80 mpw but with nowhere near as much hard stuff as I did in HS. Everyone is an individual. I slept too little and ate too much pizza as a freshman.

i know someone wrote:

But, my guess is that you'll be running >> 60 mpw and you'll be shocked by the increase in intensity, assuming that you run DI.

Good luck!

I'm not running D1, just D3. But my school is in a more competitive conference and the coach is great. Also, as far as mileage goes, I could sustain about 50 mpw now, but the coach knows my situation and he's giving me a plan to make it easier for me to adjust to that 55-60mpw in xc season this fall.

I ran 9:30 for 3200m my SR year on around 20mpw. In a year from now if you hit 60mpw, you could be well under 15:20 for 5000m, if not under 15:00, depending on how you adjust to the mileage (ensuring you keep the quality).

Lots of good feedback here and I think all of it is realistic and reasonable. Before reading all of it I was going to say that you could target 15:00-flat next year if you do most everything right for the next 12 months. Assuming you make the normal freshman mistakes but don't smoke and drink like a lazy ba stard for the next 12 months.

Your conference meet will be 1 year from last weekend.

Best case (since you have not been training very much) I would say is 15:00-flat, worst case is 15:45 if you really stink it up (and yes I realize you may be able to do that RIGHT NOW, but not everyone improves as a frosh).

Even Marty Liquori took nearly a whole year to best his 3:59.X from High School and he was the best in the world in two distances.

What did you run for XC 5k? How many 9:30 runners have no idea what they can do for 5k? 9:32 is 4:46 per 1600. If you could stretch that 72 pace per lap to 12 laps instead of 71.5 for 8 laps (seems reasonable) it would be 15:00-flat.

Even Ritz was able to stretch an 8:41 3200 (65 per lap - 11th grade) to 13:27 as a frosh (that is 64.5 per lap). He was running 13:44 as a senior and he was the best in the last 30 years. He did not have much room to improve.

I only ran 16:27 in xc this past fall, but I had a few mental road blocks that I've since gotten over. Long story short, a sophomore on my team kept killing me to get #1 on our team, but as soon as I saw that he was also killing ~90% of runners in the state meet, I got over it and resumed my normal mindset and I've been great since January. I have almost no stress as a freshman next year, so mental roadblocks aren't going to be too much of a factor for me in the foreseeable future.

hs senior 3200m runner wrote:

I only ran 16:27 in xc this past fall, but I had a few mental road blocks that I've since gotten over. Long story short, a sophomore on my team kept killing me to get #1 on our team, but as soon as I saw that he was also killing ~90% of runners in the state meet, I got over it and resumed my normal mindset and I've been great since January. I have almost no stress as a freshman next year, so mental roadblocks aren't going to be too much of a factor for me in the foreseeable future.

OK, so I would say that the best case is that you are at about 15:45 right now. If that course was flat and fast, maybe you are at 16:00-16:10.

When you ran 9:32, was it a tactical race or was it fast from the start? This could be a big factor

My senior year of high school I went 9:32 in the 3200 on 50 miles a week. Did 65 freshman year of college and went 14:52 in the 5k. Advice: train for the mile indoors and move up outdoors. Huge gains especially if that's where you are weak, like I was.

TDodd22 wrote:

When you ran 9:32, was it a tactical race or was it fast from the start? This could be a big factor

I never had the lead, I got 8th overall, and I ran fairly even splits the whole way (2:24 800, 4:46 1600). So I was running fairly fast the whole time. My last lap was 65s though, so I must have slowed down in laps 5-7. Overall, I'd say it was more tactical on my part, but I was still fairly tired during the race as it was a big PR.

Done it before wrote:

My senior year of high school I went 9:32 in the 3200 on 50 miles a week. Did 65 freshman year of college and went 14:52 in the 5k. Advice: train for the mile indoors and move up outdoors. Huge gains especially if that's where you are weak, like I was.

That's where I'm weakest now. I've run a good 800 (1.59.4) and my 9:32 3200, but I'm only at high 4:30.x for the 1600.

I've thought about this question a lot, actually.

9:32 translates to about a 15:25 using Purdy. That should be the high end of your range.

The low end would be keeping your 3200 (just under 2 miles) pace for a 5K (about 3.1 miles). That's a 14:54.

So, call it 14:55 - 15:25 is your range. The closer to 14:55 the better, obviously.

The best way to get there is to start now. Take time off after HS track, then ramp to your 60 mpw goal this summer. Make sure you don't do just junk miles. Add two quality days + a long run per week.

Quality days should mostly be tempo runs, fartleks and progressions. I'd do striders regularly and maybe even throw in some repeats in a combo workout every other week just to stay in touch with your speed. But the bulk of the work should be aerobic / base building. You can sharpen when you get to campus and start racing XC.

I'd suggest that your read Jack Daniels and Steve Magness' books if you don't already have a plan.

Again, good luck! D3 is an excellent choice.